BMI View: We have a positive long-term outlook for the US insurance sector - the largest insurance market globally. Rising household disposable incomes coupled with positive private consumption trends should benefit both life and non-life insurance through an uptick in demand. Non-life in particular should reap further benefits from this, as we expect to see continued high demand for health insurance by the large proportion of the population which has been lacking cover due to affordability issues. These growth drivers render the US insurance market attractive to potential foreign investors and we therefore anticipate more local acquisitions by foreign providers.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Gross life premiums written, USDbn||483.60||506.50||514.90||528.10||539.90||552.70||565.90||579.70|
|Gross life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||-7.8||4.7||1.7||2.6||2.2||2.4||2.4||2.4|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USDbn||721.70||730.80||749.00||783.80||815.80||849.70||884.40||920.30|
|Gross non-life premiums written, USD, % y-o-y||8.8||1.3||2.5||4.6||4.1||4.2||4.1||4.1|
Key Updates And Forecasts
The US life insurance sector is expected to account for 40% of total written premiums in 2016, making it the smaller segment of the wider US insurance sector. Life premiums are forecast to grow by 2.4% annually on average over the 2016-2020 period. In 2020, life premiums should amount to USD579.7bn.
The larger non-life insurance market is expected to see stronger growth over the coming years; between 2016 and 2020 non-life premiums should grow by roughly 4% annually on average, supported by increasing demand for health insurance. In 2020, non-life premiums should amount to USD920.3bn.
Growth in demand for life and non-life solutions will in general be driven by improving wider economic conditions. Household disposable incomes are forecast to increase and unemployment rates are expected to fall over the coming years, which should transfer to an uptick in demand for insurance solutions - in particular among the large share of the US population which does not have coverage at present.
The United States Insurance Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the insurance sector. It examines industry developments, key growth drivers and risk management projections, including the macroeconomic situation, government policy, regulatory environment and the level of development and potential for growth, broken down by line. Leading insurers are profiled, covering premiums, products and services and competitive positioning.
BMI's United States Insurance Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the American insurance industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent insurance industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in United States's insurance market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United States through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, investments and macroeconomic developments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the Life and Non-Life segments, the evolving competitive landscape and business operational risks.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the insurance sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2005-2014) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Life/non-life Premiums: Total premium growth (USDmn), premium growth (% y-o-y), penetration (% of GDP), density (USD per capita) for Life and Non-Life sectors, claims reinsurance, and assets and liabilities.
- Non-life subsectors: Data on gross written premiums for all major Non-Life segments (motor, transport, property, personal accident, health, general liability and credit financial).
BMI’s Insurance Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (Life and Non-Life) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Growth Drivers & Risk Management Projections
Key data and forecasts to end-2019 focusing on the growth drivers and downside risks to specific insurance lines including:
- Population: Male/female, by age group, active/pensionable/youth population % of total, urban/rural population % of total.
- Freight: Tonnage – air freight, rail freight, road freight, inland waterway.
- Motor: Fleet size by type of vehicle % change y-o-y.
- Epidemiology: Disease Adjusted Life Years and private health expenditure.
Market Overview & Rankings
Illustration of the insurance industry via rankings tables comparing gross written premiums by company (USDmn) and market share (%) for the top 20 players in both Life and Non-Life. This chapter also includes in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the leading insurance companies.
The insurance Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.