United States Mining Report

Published 30 April 2015

  • 97 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Mining Report

BMI View: While the US mining industry continues to be one the largest, most diverse and well developed in the world, we expect the sector to grow at only a moderate pace through the 2019. One of the main factors impeding its expansion is global price weakness in a number of key mined products, including gold, coal and copper which is leading to consolidation and a lack of new investment in some markets. The total industry value is nevertheless forecast to reach USD139bn in 2019 while the US's considerable reserves and well-established framework will ensure the country remains an important centre for mining for many years to come.

We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth, reflecting a broader trend among developed mining markets. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast average annual growth of 1.9%. Ultimately, the majority of growth in both mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region will occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, accelerating US economic growth, including steady expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains supported.

Slow Growth Reflects Developed Market Trends
US - Mining Industry Value & Growth

Consolidation to Increase

For 2015, we forecast average prices for both gold and copper will decline compared to 2014 levels. While we expect copper mining operations will remain profitable, we note that gold producers, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure both from falling prices and rising costs. Thus, we expect capital expenditure to remain subdued over the coming quarters and expect consolidation among some junior miners. We also expect further consolidation to take place across gold mining and other markets as smaller, junior miners struggle to remain profitable among continued price pressures.

In April, gold miner Coeur Mining acquired all outstanding shares of rival Paramount Gold and Silver...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Long Permitting Times Mar Overall Solid Business Environment
9
SWOT
12
Industry Forecast
14
Coal: Environmental Pressures To Hasten Output Decline
14
Sector Consolidation To Limit New Supply
15
Table: United States - Main Coal Projects
17
Exports Unlikely To Provide Relief
18
Table: Coal Production Forecast (United States 2011-2019)
20
Copper: Production Growth To Moderate, For Now
21
Table: United States - Copper Mine Projects
22
Environmental Objections To Be Main Impediment
23
Table: Copper Production Forecast (United States 2011-2019)
24
Gold: Production To Wane On Price Slump
24
Yet, Activity To Continue
25
Table: Major Gold Projects In The United States
26
Table: Gold Production Forecast (United States 2011-2019)
27
Lead: Lagging Competitiveness To Undermine Growth
27
Table: Lead Production Forecast (United States 2011-2019)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
United States Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Industry Rewards
30
Country Rewards
30
Risks
31
Industry Risks
31
Country Risks
32
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (United States 2011-2019)
32
Americas Risk Reward Index
33
Regional Risks Increase Modestly
33
Weak Prices To Hurt, While Stronger Dollar A Mixed Blessing
34
Regional Outlook Unchanged Despite Some Reordering
35
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
36
Regulatory Development
37
Recent Developments
37
EPA Proposal To Accelerate Decline Of Coal
37
Proposed Royalty Legislation Unlikely To Progress In 2015
38
Table: Key US Mining Laws
38
Permitting Times Delay Greenfield Investment
38
Tax Regime
39
Corruption Minimal
39
Table: US Political Overview
40
Table: Regional Regulatory Index
41
Commodities Forecast
42
Commodity Strategy
42
Ferrous Metals
42
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
42
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
44
Non-Ferrous Metals
47
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
47
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
49
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
50
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
51
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
52
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
53
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
55
Competitive Landscape
56
Few New Entrants
56
Table: Financial Data For Key US Mining Firms
56
North American Demand To Underpin Investment & Output Growth
57
Company Profile
58
Peabody Energy - Q3 2015
58
Company Strategy
60
Latest Results
61
Table: Peabody - Supply Chain Analysis
62
Table: Peabody Energy: Key Financial Data
62
Address Details
63
Newmont Mining - Q3 2015
64
Company Strategy
65
Latest Results
66
Table: Newmont - Supply Chain Analysis
66
Financial Data
67
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
67
Address Details
68
Freeport-McMoRan - Q3 2015
69
Company Strategy
71
Latest Results
72
Table: Freeport McMoRan Supply Chain Analysis
73
Financial Data
73
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
73
Address Details
74
Regional Overview
75
Americas Overview
75
1
75
2
77
3
78
Table: Key Central America And Caribbean Mining Projects In Development Phase
79
4
80
5
81
6
81
Global Industry Overview
83
Global Overview
83
Major Challenges Ahead
83
Table: Select Countries - Recent And Planned Tax Increases And Other Government Plans
87
Despite Challenges, Bright Spots Remain
87
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sources
94
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc