United States Mining Report

Published 14 August 2015

  • 74 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
United States Mining Report

BMI View: In a global low-price environment for commodities the US has been losing ground, albeit marginally, to emerging markets as the country's relatively high start-up and operating costs lead miners to prioritise profitability over expansion. As such, we are expecting output growth to be moderate across much of the US mining landscape over the next few years, while a contraction is expected in the production of mined commodities. Nevertheless, the US will remain a major long-term draw for mining investment, which is testament to the country's considerable mineral resources and exemplary regulatory environment.

While clearly among the largest in the world, the US mining sector will expand slowly in value terms over the next few years as both major and junior mining firms defer and scale back major investments amid a weak price environment for most major mined commodities. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast the industry's value to expand by 1.9% a year on average, to reach USD138.8bn. Though substantial in absolute terms, the size of the mining sector will actually shrink relative to the size of the wider US economy as the growth of the industry falls below expansion in GDP. We forecast the mining sector to equate to 0.65% of overall GDP in 2019, compared with an estimated 0.73% in 2014.

Slow Growth Reflects Developed Market Trends
US - Mining Industry Value & Growth
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BEA, BMI Calculation

Prices Levels To Hold Back Growth

Falling commodity prices will remain the main challenge to US mining firms over the remainder of 2015 and through the next few quarters. Gold miners have come under particular pressure in recent months, as the average price of the metal on the international market has slumped to USD1,075/oz amid an expensive dollar and weak demand from European and other major consuming markets. Falling profit margins have been a major worry for North American mining groups whose operating costs are among the...

BMI Industry View
7
Exporters Losing Out To Global Competitors
9
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Coal: Little Upside For Miners Amid Shifting Energy Landscape
12
Sector Consolidation To Limit New Supply
13
Table: United States - Main Coal Projects
15
Exports Unlikely To Provide Relief
15
Table: Coal Production Forecast (United States 2011-2019)
17
Copper: Export Weakness To Temper Output Growth
18
Table: United States - Copper Mine Projects
20
Table: Copper Production Forecast (United States 2012-2019)
21
Gold: Tepid Investment Climate As Price Level Remains Rooted
22
Table: Major Gold Projects In The United States
25
Table: Gold Production Forecast (United States 2012-2019)
26
Lead: Output To Contract Over Forecast Period
26
Table: Lead Production Forecast (United States 2012-2019)
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
United States Risk/Reward Index
29
Rewards
29
Industry Rewards
29
Country Rewards
29
Risks
30
Industry Risks
30
Country Risks
31
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (United States 2011-2019)
31
Americas Risk Reward Index
33
Risks To Increase Modestly
33
Latest Revisions:
34
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
36
Regulatory Development
37
Recent Developments
37
EPA Proposal To Accelerate Decline Of Coal
37
Proposed Royalty Legislation Unlikely To Progress In 2015
38
Table: Key US Mining Laws
38
Permitting Times Delay Greenfield Investment
38
Tax Regime
39
Corruption Minimal
39
Table: US Political Overview
40
Commodities Forecast
41
Global - Metals: Lower Costs And Weak Demand To Anchor Prices
41
Metal Price Weakness: Chinese Equity Slump & US Dollar Strength
42
US Dollar Strength To Anchor Weak Metal Prices
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Competitive Landscape - Little Scape To Existing Landscape
45
Few New Entrants
45
Table: Financial Data For Key US Mining Firms
46
North American Demand To Underpin Investment & Output Growth
46
Company Profile
48
Global Company Strategy - Newmont Mining - Q4 2015
48
Company Strategy
50
Latest Results
51
Table: Newmont - Supply Chain Analysis
51
Financial Data
52
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
52
Address Details
53
Global Company Strategy - Freeport-McMoRan - Q4 2015
54
Company Strategy
56
Latest Results
57
Table: Freeport McMoRan Supply Chain Analysis
58
Financial Data
58
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
58
Address Details
59
Regional Overview
60
Americas Mining: The Three Key Themes
60
Key Themes:
60
Regulatory Changes On The Cards
60
Dollar Strength And Oil Price Weakness To Support Production
61
Americas To Outperform Northern Peers
62
Global Industry Overview
64
Global Mining: 2015 Key Themes Revisited
64
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015
64
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline
64
Theme: US Dollar Strength
65
Iron Ore Consolidation & Majors Share To Increase
66
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue
67
2015's Standouts
68
Methodology
70
Industry Forecast Methodology
70
Sources
71
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
73

The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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