BMI View: The United States' mining sector will face significant headwinds as the country's coal and lead production continue to contract due to price weakness, elevated operating costs and increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The country's copper sector will recover to modest growth by 2017 as prices bottom out the previous year, while the gold sector experiences flat growth due to persistently low prices.
|Note: See Industry Forecasts for specific commodity growth forecasts. e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BEA, BMI|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn||108.08||94.68||87.47||87.35||89.35||92.03|
|Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y||-15.53||-12.40||-7.61||-0.13||2.28||3.01|
Latest Updates & Structural Trends
The US, a top global coal producer, will experience a steady contraction over 2016 to 2019. We forecast US coal production to decline from 812 million tonnes (mnt) in 2016 to 780mnt by 2019. This forecast period will see the US' share of global coal production drop from 9.5% in 2016 to 8.4% by 2019 as countries with lower operating costs gain market share.
We have revised down our production growth forecast for the United States' copper sector, as consistently depressed prices will result in major production cuts. In our view, the country's copper production will decline from 1.4mnt in 2015 to 1.3mnt in 2016. This would represent an annual growth rate of 0.2% during 2015-2019, compared with an annual growth rate of 4.4% during 2011-2014.
Weak commodity prices and elevated production costs will continue to pose major challenges to the country's mining sector as a whole. A number of significant legislative efforts to shift energy consumption to cleaner natural gas coming into effect will continue to raise production costs across the mining industry and particularly for coal...
The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
- Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
- Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
- Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
- Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.
BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis
Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.