United States Mining Report

Published 30 April 2015

  • 97 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Mining Report

BMI View: While the US mining industry continues to be one the largest, most diverse and well developed in the world, we expect the sector to grow at only a moderate pace through the 2019. One of the main factors impeding its expansion is global price weakness in a number of key mined products, including gold, coal and copper which is leading to consolidation and a lack of new investment in some markets. The total industry value is nevertheless forecast to reach USD139bn in 2019 while the US's considerable reserves and well-established framework will ensure the country remains an important centre for mining for many years to come.

We forecast the US mining sector will see modest average annual growth, reflecting a broader trend among developed mining markets. For the period of 2015-2019, we forecast average annual growth of 1.9%. Ultimately, the majority of growth in both mineral output and mining investment in the Americas region will occur in developing markets in Latin America. Still, accelerating US economic growth, including steady expansion in the automotive and broader manufacturing sectors, should ensure the overall mining and metals sector remains supported.

Slow Growth Reflects Developed Market Trends
US - Mining Industry Value & Growth

Consolidation to Increase

For 2015, we forecast average prices for both gold and copper will decline compared to 2014 levels. While we expect copper mining operations will remain profitable, we note that gold producers, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure both from falling prices and rising costs. Thus, we expect capital expenditure to remain subdued over the coming quarters and expect consolidation among some junior miners. We also expect further consolidation to take place across gold mining and other markets as smaller, junior miners struggle to remain profitable among continued price pressures.

In April, gold miner Coeur Mining acquired all outstanding shares of rival Paramount Gold and Silver...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Long Permitting Times Contrast With Positive Business Environment
8
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
11
Coal: Domestic Troubles Ahead
11
Sector To See Further Consolidation
12
Table: United States - Main Coal Projects
13
Exports Unable To Reverse Sector Decline
13
Higher Gas Prices Will Not Provide Boon To Coal
14
Table: Coal Production Forecast (United States 2010-2018)
16
Copper: Brownfield Investment To Drive Mid-Decade Gains
16
Global Miners To Dominate Sector
17
Table: United States - Copper Mine Projects
17
Environmental Objections Delay Investment
18
Table: Copper Production Forecast (United States 2010-2018)
19
Gold: Less Than Golden Outlook
19
Barrick To Stay On Top
20
Table: Major Gold Projects In The United States
21
Table: Gold Production Forecast (United States 2010-2018)
22
Lead: Output To Stagnate
22
Table: Lead Production Forecast (United States 2010-2018)
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Americas Industry Risk & Reward Index
25
Region Evenly Divided
25
Bearish Price Forecast Dampens Overall Outlook
26
Rankings See Some Reordering
27
Table: Americas - Mining Risk/Reward Index
28
United States - Risk/Reward Index
28
Rewards
29
Industry Rewards
29
Country Rewards
29
Risks
30
Industry Risks
30
Country Risks
31
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
31
Regulatory Development
33
Recent Developments
33
EPA & Congress Propose Changes
33
Proposed Legislation Unlikely To See Passage In Near Term
34
Table: Key US Mining Laws
34
Permitting Times Negatively Impact Greenfield Development
34
Tax Regime
35
Corruption Minimal
35
Table: US Political Overview
36
Table: Regional Regulatory Table
36
Commodities Forecast
38
Commodity Strategy
38
Ferrous Metals
38
Non-Ferrous Metals:
41
Aluminium: Price Headwinds To Persist Despite Market Tightness
41
Copper: Bounce To Prove Temporary
42
Nickel: Multiple Price Headwinds To Persist
44
Zinc: No Sustained Gains
47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And BMI Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Few New Entrants
50
Table: Financial Data For Key US Mining Firms
50
North American Demand To Drive Production
51
Company Profile
52
Peabody Energy
52
Company Strategy
54
Latest Results
55
Table: Peabody - Supply Chain Analysis
55
Table: Peabody Energy: Key Financial Data
56
Address Details
56
Freeport-McMoRan
58
Company Strategy
60
Latest Results
61
Table: Freeport McMoRan Supply Chain Analysis
62
Financial Data
62
Table: Freeport-McMoRan - Key Financial Data
62
Address Details
63
Newmont Mining
64
Company Strategy
65
Latest Results
66
Table: Newmont - Supply Chain Analysis
66
Financial Data
66
Table: Newmont Mining - Key Financial Data
66
Address Details
67
Regional Overview
68
Regional Overview - Americas
68
Colombia, Mexico & Peru To Outperform The Region
68
North Versus South Divide Emerging In Coal
69
Americas To Lead In Copper Output
70
Environmental Protests To Present Downside Risks
72
Global Industry Overview
74
Unearthing The Key Mining Themes In 2015
74
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sources
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
87

The United States Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in United States.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in United States's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc