United States Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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United States Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade despite the fall in oil prices . High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period , reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude , and lower oil prices dampening some production . Consumption o f fuels will be largely stagnant throughout the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. I n the gas market, we forecast a ramp - up in production when demand gears up from 201 6 onwards as new LNG export facilities and pet ro chem ical plants come online.

Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 12,887.0 13,782.5 12,984.2 12,896.7 13,247.6 13,560.1 13,852.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 19,489.6 19,957.7 20,194.8 20,332.9 20,440.2 20,505.4 20,566.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 19,872.9 20,267.4 20,497.5 20,673.3 20,743.2 20,796.0 20,841.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 728.1 765.9 792.7 828.4 869.8 904.6 936.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 759.3 781.3 796.9 814.4 834.8 851.5 868.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00
  • We have downgraded our US oil production forecast as continued downside pressure on oil prices restrains investment into unconventional plays. Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract, have begun to pressure developments in the core of the US oil industry. As efficiency gains dwindle, we now expect the decline in shale output will outweigh gains from deepwater projects in 2016, resulting in a contraction for the year. With prices now trading below USD40/bbl, we caution that even more profitable 'sweet spot' areas will suffer from declines over the coming quarters.

  • A further deceleration in drilling and completion activity will exacerbate the slowdown in US shale oil production in H116. The pullback in production will support crude prices later in the year, encouraging the most efficient producers to resume upstream development. The strengthening of crude prices in H216 will not usher in a revival of shale oil production. Producers will be under continued pressure to operate amid tight financing conditions, suggesting y-o-y growth will not return before oil prices average USD55-60/bbl, forecast for late 2017.

  • The lifting of the US's 40-year crude export ban on December 18 is driving an increase in net imports into the US, due both to thinning export volumes and a growing demand for imported oil. This shift in trade flows has been driven by changes in the price differentials between domestic US and international crudes, pulling US benchmark WTI closer to parity with global benchmark Brent. As the spread between WTI and Brent is broadly what dictates the arbitrage between domestic and imported grades, imports have become more attractive, while exports less so.

  • Milder weather conditions are the main contributing factor to weakened demand for natural gas, prompting further downside in Henry Hub benchmark prices. Trading below USD1.75/mn British Thermal Unit at time of writing. Given the likelihood of further price declines, key US producers will face a more challenging operating environment, raising the possibility of more pronounced production pullbacks.

  • Demand for refined petroleum goods in the US is nearing a peak as structural changes within the market discourage higher consumption levels. Namely, strict fuel economy targets being implemented in the US along with higher blending mandates for biofuels will weaken consumer demand for fuel over the next decade in spite of lower prices at the pump.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: US - Key Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Oil Production (United States 2014-2019)
40
Table: Oil Production (United States 2020-2025)
41
Upstream Production - Gas
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Gas Production (United States 2014-2019)
44
Table: Gas Production (United States 2020-2025)
44
Refining
45
Latest Updates
45
Structural Trends
45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2014-2019)
48
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2020-2025)
49
Refined Fuels Consumption
50
Latest Updates
50
Structural Trends:
50
Table: Final Renewable Fuel Volumes
54
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
55
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
56
Gas Consumption
56
Latest Updates
56
Structural Trends:
56
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
59
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
60
Trade - Oil
60
Latest Updates
60
Structural Trends
60
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2014-2020)
62
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
63
Latest Updates
63
Structural Trends
63
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
65
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
65
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
65
Latest Updates
65
Structural Trends
66
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
70
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
70
Industry Risk Reward Index
71
North America And Western Europe - Risk/Reward Index
71
Table: North America And Western Europe - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
72
Upstream: North America To Maintain Lead
72
Table: North America And Western Europe - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Downstream: US Widens Lead
75
Table: North America And Western Europe - Downstream Risk/Reward Index
77
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index
78
Market Overview
80
United States Energy Market Overview
80
Licensing And Regulation
80
Government Policy
83
Licensing Rounds
88
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
89
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule
89
International Energy Relations
91
Table: Key Upstream Players
92
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
95
Oil Refineries
95
Table: New US Refineries
97
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
100
Table: Refineries In the US
101
Service Stations
106
Oil Storage Facilities
107
Oil Terminals/Ports
107
Oil Pipelines
108
Table: US Crude Oil Pipelines Online/Planned, 2012-2014
109
LNG Terminals
112
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
112
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
117
Gas Storage Facilities
118
Gas Pipelines
118
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines
120
Competitive Landscape
124
Competitive Landscape Summary
124
Table: Key Upstream Players
127
Table: Key Downstream Players
127
Company Profile
128
Anadarko
128
BP America
133
Chevron
141
ConocoPhillips
148
ExxonMobil
154
Shell USA
161
Other Summaries
169
Regional Overview
180
North America And Western Europe Regional Overview
180
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
191
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2013-2024
192
Glossary
194
Table: Glossary Of Terms
194
Methodology
196
Industry Forecast Methodology
196
Source
198
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
198
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
200
Table: Weighting
201

The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United States to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.