United States Oil & Gas Report

Published 06 July 2015

  • 221 pages
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$1,295.00
United States Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade . We forecast crude oil and NGLs production will rise from an estimated 1 3.6 mn b/d in 201 5 to 1 5. 8 mn b/d by 202 4 . High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period , reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude , and lower oil prices dampening some production . Consumption for fuels will be largely stagnant throughout the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. On the gas market, we forecast a ramp - up in production when demand gears up from 2017 onwards as new LNG export facilities and pet ro chem ical plants come online.

Headline Forecasts (United States 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,256.2 12,887.0 13,591.0 14,037.5 14,372.3 14,663.5 14,958.8
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 16,567.1 16,749.1 16,906.9 17,084.9 17,230.3 17,365.6 17,481.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 19,815.9 20,038.6 20,238.2 20,467.0 20,677.4 20,806.1 20,941.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 687.4 728.1 749.9 779.9 815.0 855.8 890.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 740.8 748.2 763.2 782.3 801.8 821.9 838.3
  • Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract, have pressured developments on the fringes of oil production in the US. Our research suggests the majority of shale oil growth will remain profitable above USD80/bbl, with more developed 'sweet spot' acreage profitable at rates as low as USD40/bbl. With prices now trading around USD60/bbl, marginal areas within some of the plays will be negatively impacted.

  • Exploration and appraisals in the...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United States 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (United States 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: US - Major Upstream Projects
15
Upstream Production - Oil
31
Table: Oil Production (United States 2019-2024)
31
Upstream Production - Gas
42
Table: Gas Production (United States 2013-2018)
42
Table: Gas Production (United States 2019-2024)
43
Refining
47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2013-2018)
47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2019-2024)
48
Refined Fuels Consumption
50
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United States 2013-2018)
50
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United States 2019-2024)
50
Gas Consumption
55
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2013-2018)
55
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2019-2024)
55
Trade - Oil
58
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2013-2018)
58
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2019-2024)
58
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2013-2018)
61
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2019-2024)
61
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United States 2013-2018)
63
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (United States 2019-2024)
63
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
64
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2013-2018)
64
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2019-2024)
65
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
69
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
69
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
70
US More Resilient Than Canada To Oil Price Fall
70
Table: Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
71
Western Europe Languishes Without Shale Outlook
73
Downstream: US Comes Out Top
75
Table: Oil & Gas Downstream Risk/Reward Index
75
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index
78
Market Overview
81
United States Energy Market Overview
81
Licensing And Regulation
81
Government Policy
84
Licensing Rounds
89
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
89
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule
90
International Energy Relations
92
Table: Key Upstream Players
93
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
97
Oil Refineries
97
Table: New US Refineries
98
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
101
Table: Refineries In the US
102
Service Stations
108
Oil Storage Facilities
108
Oil Terminals/Ports
108
Oil Pipelines
109
Table: Crude Oil Pipelines Recently Online/Planned For The US, 2012-2014
110
LNG Terminals
113
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
113
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
118
Gas Storage Facilities
119
Gas Pipelines
119
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines Planned
121
Competitive Landscape
125
Competitive Landscape Summary
125
Table: Key Upstream Players
127
Table: Key Downstream Players
127
Company Profile
128
ExxonMobil
128
Chevron
135
BP America
141
ConocoPhillips
149
Anadarko
154
Shell USA
158
Other Summaries
165
Regional Overview
179
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Regional Overview
179
Global Industry Overview
190
Oil Price Outlook
190
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
190
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
191
Appendix
198
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
198
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
198
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
199
North America Regional Appendix
200
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
200
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
201
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
201
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
201
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
202
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
202
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
202
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
203
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
203
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
203
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
204
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
204
United States - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
205
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United States 2013-2018)
205
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United States 2019-2024)
205
United States - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
206
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United States 2013-2018)
206
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (United States 2019-2024)
207
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United States 2013-2018)
208
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (United States 2019-2024)
209
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United States 2013-2018)
211
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (United States 2019-2024)
211
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United States 2013-2018)
212
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (United States 2019-2024)
213
Glossary
214
Table: Glossary Of Terms
214
Methodology
216
Industry Forecast Methodology
216
Source
218
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
218
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
220
Table: Weighting
221

The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United States to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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