United States Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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United States Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The US will lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade despite the fall in oil prices . High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period , reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude and lower oil prices dampening a portion of production . Fuels c onsumption growth will temper over the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. I n the gas market, we forecast a ramp - up in production as new LNG export facilities and pet ro chem ical plants come online.

Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 12,995.6 13,923.9 13,145.3 13,074.4 13,360.9 13,676.1 13,943.7
Refined products production, 000b/d 19,654.0 19,893.0 20,106.1 20,163.4 20,198.8 20,191.8 20,161.4
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 19,950.5 20,236.5 20,538.6 20,685.1 20,727.9 20,765.8 20,778.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 728.5 766.4 784.1 815.4 856.2 890.4 921.6
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 756.0 777.9 797.4 819.7 840.2 857.0 874.1
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00
  • The more pronounced spending pullback by North American oil producers supports our view that a supply-side correction of the market will primarily be led by this region in 2016. The US will witness the most dramatic decline, supporting a strengthening of international benchmark prices beginning in H216.

  • A reduction in the bo rrowing base available to US exploration and production (E&P) companie s following the spring redeterminations does not pos e a major liquidity risk to the sector. Leveraged companies with highly utilised borrowing bases and poorer asset quality are at higher risk of default.

  • O&G debt issuance in the United States in the year-to-date signals that the risks of a sector-wide credit crunch have been overstated. Liquidity risks will remain contained to a small pool of highly-leveraged producers and will not spill over to the O&G sector more broadly. With the market pricing in a more systemic credit risk, we believe the low corporate bond pricing does not accurately reflect the underlying fundamentals of the sector.

  • Weakness in crude prices will spur greater resourcefulness on the part of shale oil producers, with companies targeting uncompleted well inventories, identifying refrac opportunities and bringing in new partners. New drilling will be limited in 2016, supporting our downbeat production trend for the year.

  • Job cuts and the limited number of high horsepower rigs will limit the strength of US onshore production growth once oil prices recover to incentivise investment. We maintain our view that production growth will return in H217, but at a limited pace.

  • Sustained weakness in US gas prices will dampen growth prospects in the Marcellus/Utica shale play in 2016. With combined production across the Marcellus and Utica having grown at a rate of 22.0% y-o-y in 2015, we believe continued downside pressure on natural gas prices will temper this trend to 5.5% y-o-y in 2016 as producers cut back investment and development plans throughout the play.

  • The development of refined products midstream assets from the US will help satisfy a long-standing shortfall in the Mexican market. Falling domestic crude supplies over the past decade by national oil company (NOC) Pemex has limited production of refined fuels at the country's six downstream facilities. Given these dynamics, we believe demand will remain strong for more affordable transport infrastructure via pipeline from the US over the next several years.

  • We maintain that the narrower spread between WTI and Brent will remain in play over H216 as the global market rebalances, despite much of that correction coming from the US. This will close overseas arbitrage opportunities and limit demand for US crude exports.

  • The price-elastic US consumption has reacted well to low prices at the pump, increasing both vehicle miles travelled and the use of less fuel-efficient vehicles. While the demand outlook for gasoline is positive for 2016, on the supply side bulging stockpiles will put a cap on the upside for prices.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
17
Table: United States - Major Upstream Projects
17
Upstream Production - Oil
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Oil Production (United States 2014-2019)
42
Table: Oil Production (United States 2020-2025)
42
Upstream Production - Gas
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Gas Production (United States 2014-2019)
46
Table: Gas Production (United States 2020-2025)
46
Refining
47
Latest Updates
47
Structural Trends
47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2014-2019)
51
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2020-2025)
51
Refined Fuels Consumption
52
Latest Updates
52
Structural Trends
52
Table: Final Renewable Fuel Volumes
58
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
59
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
60
Gas Consumption
61
Latest Updates
61
Structural Trends
61
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2014-2019)
65
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2020-2025)
65
Trade - Oil
66
Crude Oils: Latest Updates
66
Structural Trends
66
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2014-2020)
68
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
69
Refined Products: Latest Updates
69
Structural Trends
69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
71
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
71
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
72
Latest Updates
72
Structural Trends
73
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2014-2019)
77
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2020-2025)
77
Industry Risk/Reward Index
78
North America And Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
78
Table: North America & Western Europe Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
78
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead
79
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price
79
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe
80
Table: North America & Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index
82
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead
82
Table: North America & Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index
84
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index
85
Upstream Index
85
Downstream Index
86
Market Overview
87
United States Energy Market Overview
87
Licensing And Regulation
87
Regulatory Policy
90
Licensing Rounds
96
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017
96
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule
97
International Energy Relations
98
Table: Key Upstream Players
100
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
103
Oil Refineries
103
Table: New US Refineries
105
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions
108
Table: Refineries In the US
109
Service Stations
114
Oil Storage Facilities
114
Oil Terminals
115
Oil Pipelines
116
Table: US Crude Oil Pipelines Online/Planned, 2012-2014
116
LNG Terminals
120
Table: LNG Terminals In the US
120
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects
125
Gas Storage Facilities
126
Gas Pipelines
126
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines
128
Competitive Landscape
132
Competitive Landscape Summary
132
Table: Key Upstream Players
135
Table: Key Downstream Players
135
Company Profile
136
BP America
136
Table: Table - Key Assets in the US
137
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
138
Chevron
139
Table: Table - Major Assets in the US
140
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
140
ConocoPhillips
142
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets in the US
143
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
143
ExxonMobil
145
Table: Table - Key Upstream Assets in the US
146
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
147
Shell USA
148
Table: Table - Major Assets in the US
150
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn)
150
Regional Overview
152
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview
152
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
162
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025
163
Glossary
165
Table: Glossary Of Terms
165
Methodology
167
Industry Forecast Methodology
167
Source
169
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
169
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
171
Table: Weighting
172

The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's United States Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for United States to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.