BMI View: The US will continue to lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade despite the fall in oil prices . High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period , reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude , and lower oil prices dampening some production . Consumption o f fuels will be largely stagnant throughout the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. I n the gas market, we forecast a ramp - up in production when demand gears up from 201 6 onwards as new LNG export facilities and pet ro chem ical plants come online.
|e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI|
|Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d||11,265.5||12,887.0||13,547.8||13,297.9||13,475.8||13,744.6||14,040.3|
|Refined products production, 000b/d||19,106.0||19,284.5||19,591.7||19,822.7||19,957.2||20,060.4||20,122.7|
|Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d||19,815.9||19,815.6||20,179.9||20,398.2||20,563.6||20,633.0||20,684.9|
|Dry natural gas production, bcm||688.9||728.1||764.5||795.1||830.8||872.4||907.3|
|Dry natural gas consumption, bcm||740.8||759.3||774.4||793.8||813.6||834.0||850.7|
We have downgraded our US oil production forecast as continued downside pressure on oil prices restrains investment into unconventional plays. Falling oil prices, especially on the WTI contract, have begun to pressure developments in the core of the US oil industry. As efficiency gains dwindle, we now expect the decline in shale output will outweigh gains from deepwater projects in 2016, resulting in a contraction for the year. With prices now trading below USD45/bbl, we...
The United States Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for United States including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:
- Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
- Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
- Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.
BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.
The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.