United States Petrochemicals Report

Published 23 June 2015

  • 110 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Petrochemicals Report

US plastics output grew strongly in the first few months of 2015 amid a buoyant market and competitive production. The market is likely to remain supportive of growth in the months and years ahead as industrial growth remains strong, although the construction sector will slow and impact on a range of plastics used in construction materials, particularly PVC.

In the first four months of 2015, US production of major plastic resins grew 3.0% while sales and captive plastic use grew 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). In May the three month moving average Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), the American Chemistry Council's (ACC) economic indicator, grew 0.7% month-on-month and was up 3.3% y-o-y. This indicated strengthening business activity that should carry through into 2016.

Production growth in the automotive industry is set to moderate due to capacity constraints. However, growth is set to continue steadily over the medium term thereby ensuring considerable upside for petrochemicals producers, particularly in engineering polypropylene (PP) products, polyurethane upholstery and synthetic rubbers which are used in the manufacture of vehicles.

We maintain our view the recovery in the construction sector will trend lower as the residential construction industry normalises. The potential for any major ramp-up in infrastructure investment remains unlikely in the current political climate, but any improvement here would present upside to our five-year growth outlook. This will have implications for construction-related chemicals such as PVC, which will benefit from continued house-building growth but cannot bank on massive increases in consumption over the medium term.

The US petrochemicals industry continues to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability as a result of shale gas exploitation. With exports and domestic demand growing, industrial growth is firming up and giving a positive scenario over the medium term. However, a glut in global capacity as a result of new...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2019 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Analysis
15
Table: Economic Activity (United States 2010-2019)
20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
21
Divergence: the North-South divide
21
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Ratings
24
United States Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
24
Market Overview
26
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
28
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Cracker Developments
30
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
30
Polymers And Intermediates
32
Fertiliser
33
Regulatory Development
34
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
36
Competitive Landscape
39
Table: Olefins Production Capacity ('000tpa)
40
Aromatics
44
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity ('000tpa)
45
Mixed Xylenes
46
Table: Xylenes Capacity ('000tpa)
46
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
47
Table: PE Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
48
Table: US PP Capacity ('000tpa)
53
Table: PVC Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
53
Table: PS Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
55
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
56
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
57
Company Profile
59
BP
59
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
62
Dow Chemical
65
ExxonMobil
68
Huntsman
71
Ineos
73
LyondellBasell
75
Shell Chemicals
77
Westlake Chemical
79
Regional Overview
81
Americas Overview
81
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
85
Global Industry Overview
87
Outlook for 2015: Falling prices
87
Medium-term outlook
88
China versus the US: feedstock wars
90
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
95
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
98
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
99
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025)
102
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025)
102
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025)
103
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025)
104
Glossary
106
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
106
Methodology
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
109
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
110
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
111

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc