United States Petrochemicals Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the petrochemicals.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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United States Petrochemicals Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

The US petrochemicals industry is expected to shrug off the challenge of loss of competitiveness in its dominant ethane feedstock relative to naphtha used by producers in Europe and Asia. US production retains a favourable edge in the cost curve, supply chains are well integrated and feed is sufficient to fulfil the demand of new capacity going forward.

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council, grew 1.7% y-o-y on average in H215 as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). The CAB stabilised in November, rising 0.1% m-o-m following three consecutive months of decline. The pattern reverses a downward trend that had begun to gain momentum. The CAB was up 1.3% y-o-y in November 2015, representing a deceleration of annual growth.

The focus in coming months will be the planned USD120bn merger of two US chemical giants, Dow Chemical and DuPont. Both companies have failed to convince investors of long-term profitability in an increasingly competitive market. A merger of Dow and DuPont would enable the companies to align their assets, rationalise costs and operations, cut out duplication, and build up their joint strengths. The merger process is likely to be protracted with Chinese anti-trust regulators likely to be a stumbling block. Other M&A activity includes Thailand's Indorama Ventures Olefins' (IVO) acquisition of a 370,000tpa ethylene cracker located in Lake Charles, Louisiana. IVO is taking a 76% interest in the ethylene cracker, with the remaining 24% financial investment being made by Indorama Corporation.

  • Over the medium term, the country will see capacity growth led by new ethane-fed crackers that exploit growing shale gas output, much of it coming on stream in 2017. In total, 7.34mntpa of new cracker capacity is confirmed within the next five years with proposals for over 10mntpa more cracker capacity, although some of this may not materialise.

  • The US should raise total ethylene capacity to 38mn tonnes per annum (mntpa) in 2019, up 7.34mntpa over 2015, with capacity growth led by new ethane-fed crackers that exploit growing shale gas output, much of it coming on stream in 2017.

  • Production growth in the automotive industry is set to moderate due to capacity constraints. However, growth is set to continue steadily over the medium term thereby ensuring considerable upside for petrochemicals producers, particularly in engineering polypropylene (PP) products, polyurethane upholstery and synthetic rubbers which are used in the manufacture of vehicles.

  • The US's Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index remained at 90.4 out of 100 this quarter. There is little to challenge the US's lead over the Americas with regards to the opportunities offered by its petrochemicals markets, and the numerous country rewards. Its capacities are set to grow on the back of shale gas exploitation, the domestic market's recovery is well underway and the regulatory structure is conducive to investment.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2019 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
17
Economic Analysis
17
Table: US - Key Economic Indicators
17
Table: US - Private Consumption Forecasts
19
Table: US - Private Investment Forecasts
19
Table: US - Government Consumption And Investment Forecasts
21
Table: US - Net Exports Forecasts
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index
23
Worsening market risk in Latin America
23
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Rewards Ratings
26
Market Overview
27
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
28
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Cracker Developments
30
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
30
Polymers And Intermediates
32
Fertiliser
34
Refining
34
Regulatory Development
36
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
37
Competitive Landscape
41
Table: Olefins Production Capacity ('000tpa)
43
Aromatics
46
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity ('000tpa)
47
Mixed Xylenes
48
Table: Xylenes Capacity ('000tpa)
48
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
50
Table: PE Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
50
Table: US PP Capacity ('000tpa)
55
Table: PVC Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
56
Table: PS Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
57
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
58
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
59
Company Profile
61
BP
61
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
64
Dow Chemical
67
ExxonMobil
70
Huntsman
74
Table: Huntsman (USDmn)
75
Ineos
76
LyondellBasell
78
Table: LyondellBasell Financial Results (USDmn)
79
Shell Chemicals
81
Westlake Chemical
83
Table: Westlake Chemical Financial Results (USDmn)
84
Regional Overview
86
Americas Overview
86
Table: Planned Cracker Projects
90
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
91
Global Industry Overview
92
Could US Gas Run out-
94
Project Curtailments
96
Medium-term Outlook
97
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-Year Forecasts
100
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2013-2018)
100
Table: Energy Price Forecasts (Global 2019-2024)
101
Demographic Forecast
103
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025)
104
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025)
104
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025)
105
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025)
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
108
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
111
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index Indicators
112
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
113

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.