United States Petrochemicals Report

Published 09 January 2015

  • 110 pages
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United States Petrochemicals Report

The US petrochemicals industry saw a decline in resins output and sales in 2014, but with capacity growth set to abate until 2016 at the earliest, BMI expects tightening markets in 2015 that should help protect margins from foreign competition.

In the January-October 2014 period, resin output was down 2.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 28.1mn tonnes amid a spate of unplanned cracker outages. Nevertheless, output in several key chemistry end-use markets expanded, including automotive, construction and plastic products. After nearly five years, headline industrial production surpassed its previous peak. Recent resurgence in the industrial sector and balanced chemical inventories bodes well for future chemical production.

Capacity growth will be limited to the expansion of existing facilities with no new crackers expected until 2016 at the earliest. As such, the market will become tighter as 2015 progresses, pushing up spot prices.

  • The US petrochemicals industry continues to expand on the back of growth in ethane availability as a result of shale gas exploitation. With exports and domestic demand growing, industrial growth is firming up and giving a positive scenario over the medium term. However, a glut in global capacity as a result of new crackers in the US will put pressure on margins in the long term.

  • An upgrade in our construction forecast should provide some upside for construction-related chemicals such as PVC, although the recovery will trend lower as the residential construction industry normalises.

  • Production growth in the automotive industry is set to moderate due to capacity constraints. However, growth is set to continue steadily over the medium-term thereby ensuring considerable upside for petrochemicals producers, particularly in engineering polypropylene products, polyurethane upholstery and synthetic rubbers which are used in the manufacture of vehicles.

  • The US scores 90.4 points in BMI's Americas Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index, 11.9...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: GDP By Expenditure (United States 2011-2018)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
25
United States Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
26
Table: Geographical Concentration Of Chemicals Production
27
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Cracker Developments
29
Table: US Petrochemical Expansions Based On Shale Gas
29
Polymers And Intermediates
33
Fertiliser
34
Methanol
35
Regulatory Development
36
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
38
Competitive Landscape
41
Upstream
41
Olefins
42
Table: Olefins Production Capacity ('000tpa)
42
Aromatics
45
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity ('000tpa)
46
Mixed Xylenes
47
Table: Xylenes Capacity ('000tpa)
47
Polyethylene (PE)
48
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications
48
Table: PE Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
49
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)
50
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE)
50
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)
51
Polypropylene (PP)
52
Table: US PP Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)
54
Table: PVC Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
54
Polystyrene (PS)
55
Table: PS Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
56
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET)
57
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector - PET Chain Capacity ('000tpa)
58
Company Profile
60
BP
60
Table: BP - Financial Results (USDmn)
62
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company
64
Dow Chemical
67
Table: Dow Financial Results, 2010-2013 (USDmn)
69
ExxonMobil
70
Table: ExxonMobil - Global Financial Results (USDmn)
72
Huntsman
73
Table: Huntsman - Financial Results (USDmn)
74
Ineos
76
LyondellBasell
78
Table: LyondellBasell Financial Results (USDmn)
79
Shell Chemicals
80
Table: Royal Dutch Shell Financial Results (USDmn)
81
Westlake Chemical
82
Table: Westlake Chemical - Financial Results, 2010-2013 (USDmn)
83
Regional Overview
84
Americas Overview
84
Table: Planned PE Projects In North America, 2014-2019
87
Latin American Supply Lags Behind Demand
87
Global Industry Overview
91
Polymers Markets
93
Polymers Capacities
94
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
95
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
95
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
96
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
97
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
97
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
100
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
100
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
100
Upward Price Revision
102
Europe And The US:
102
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
104
Risks To Outlook
105
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
106
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
106
Supply Keeps Market Down
106
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
108
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
109
Risks To Outlook
112
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
113
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
113
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
118
Risks To Outlook
119
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
120
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
120
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
122
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
126
Risks To Outlook
127
Demographic Forecast
129
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
133
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
136
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
137
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
138

The United States Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the American petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the American petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering the petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the petrochemicals sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Energy: Oil production (‘000 b/d), oil consumption (‘000 b/d), net oil exports (‘000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (‘000 b/d).
  • Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), ethylene production (‘000 tpa), ethylene consumption (‘000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (‘000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (‘000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (‘000 tpa).
  • Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (USD/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
  • Economic: Nominal GDP (USDbn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (USD), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against USD).

BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (both corporate and financial) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global & Regional Market Overview

Analysis of the key trends driving the global industry, including worldwide output/capacity and demand analysis across ethylene, polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate and polypropylene. The regional analysis looks at the implications of local and global trends on specific company activity.

Sub-sectors covered by the Petrochemicals Reports include:

Oil & Gas, Oil Refining, Olefins (ethylene, propylene), Polyolefins (polyethylene, polypropylene), Polyvinyl Chloride, Polystyrene

Please note – not all country Reports cover all sub-sectors – see website for details.

Sources

The Petrochemicals Market Reports are based on a network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (ACC, APLA, Cefi c, ICCA, ICMA), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offi ces, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc