United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 26 May 2015

  • 125 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The US healthcare market will continue to offer considerable commercial opportunities that are higher than what the already large economy would indicate. This is due to the decentralised and privatised nature of the operating environment. There are also numerous intermediaries between patients and providers of medical services, with each entity claiming a component of overall expenditure. Healthcare reform is taking place, and efficiencies are being realised, expanding the prospects for new market entrants.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals : USD371.2bn in 2014 to USD383.1bn in 2015; +3.2% growth. Market size revised upwards since Q215 due to receipt of new historical data .

  • Healthcare : USD3,009.9bn in 2014 to USD3,148.4bn in 2015; +4.6% growth. Forecast revised downwards due to receipt of new historical data.

Risk/Reward Index

The US has a Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 82.9 out of 100 for Q315. This is an increase from the 81.7 in Q215 and the 80.5 recorded in Q115.The high RRI score recorded by the US underlines the pharmaceutical market's unassailable status as the most lucrative globally. This is due to unparalleled healthcare access, considerable spending power, a high burden of disease, minimal market access barriers and intense company activity. The key risks to this positive outlook are the increasing influence of pharmacy benefit managers and greater regulation, such as the Branded Prescription Drug Fee.

Key Trends And Developments

April 2015

  • Republicans in the US House of Representatives approved a joint House-Senate budget plan, a measure that aids the party's goal of derailing President Barack Obama's signature healthcare reform law in 2015. The Republican-authored plan is looking to remove deficits by 2024 through deep cuts to social programmes while boosting military spending by almost USD40bn in 2016. The budget seeks to cut around USD5,300bn from domestic expenditure in 10 years, with deep cuts...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
19
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
20
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
20
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
22
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Therapy Area In The US (mn)
22
Table: Number Of Dispensed Prescriptions By Active Ingredient In The US (mn)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
25
Table: Leading Patented Medicines By Non-Discounted Sales In The US (USDbn)
25
Table: Leading Therapeutic Classes By Non-Discounted Sales (USDbn)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
28
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2010-2018)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2018)
32
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
33
Macroeconomic Forecasts
34
Economic Analysis
34
Table: UNITED STATES - GDP BY EXPENDITURE
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
United States Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
53
Epidemiology
53
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Key Features Of The Affordable Care Act By Year
57
Impact Of The Sequester
58
Research And Development
59
Clinical Trials
60
Contract/Clinical Research Organisations
62
Hospital Sector
63
Regulatory Development
64
Intellectual Property Regulations
77
Pricing And Reimbursement Environment
79
Late-2013 Government Shutdown
81
Competitive Landscape
84
Pharmaceutical Sector
84
Pharmaceutical Distribution
85
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
86
Company Profile
88
Pfizer
88
Merck
92
Eli Lilly
96
Amgen
100
GlaxoSmithKline
104
AstraZeneca
108
Demographic Forecast
112
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
113
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
114
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
115
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
115
Glossary
116
Methodology
118
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
118
Notes On Methodology
119
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
120
Ratings Overview
121
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
121
Indicator Weightings
122

The United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United States, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc