BMI View: The number of new drugs approved by the FDA every year will continue to rise steadily, though this will, at least over the short term, be at a slower rate than what was seen over the 2006-2015 period. Due to advances in genomics and personalised medicines, many of the new drugs set for approval will address small patient populations. As such, the forecast for higher numbers of new medicine approvals is not indicative of improved R&D productivity and greater industry profitability.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals : USD333bn in 2015 to USD354bn in 2016; +6.1% growth. Market forecast revised upwards since Q 3 16 due to consideration and incorporation of new macroeconomic data.
Healthcare : USD3,139bn in 2015 to USD3,278bn in 2016; +4.4% growth. Forecast revised downwards since Q 3 16 following reassessment of market dynamics .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||309.860||333.400||353.840||365.220||377.040||389.270||401.900|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||1.79||1.86||1.89||1.88||1.86||1.84||1.83|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||10.4||10.6||10.8||10.6||10.5||10.3||10.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||2,985.750||3,139.180||3,277.560||3,443.310||3,601.260||3,765.140||3,936.240|
The US has a RRI score of 83.9 out of 100 for Q416. This is unchanged from Q316, and slightly higher than the 82.8 recorded in Q216. The high RRI score recorded by the US underlines the pharmaceutical market's unassailable status as the most lucrative globally. This is due to unparalleled healthcare access, considerable spending power, a high burden of disease, minimal market access barriers and intense company activity. The key risks to this positive outlook are the increasing influence of pharmacy benefit managers and greater regulation, such as the Branded Prescription Drug Fee.
President Barack Obama published a 'Special Communication' in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). He said that policy makers should build on progress made by the Affordable Care Act by continuing to implement the Health Insurance Marketplaces and delivery system reform, increasing federal financial assistance for Marketplace enrollees, introducing a public plan option in areas lacking individual market competition, and taking actions to reduce prescription drug costs.
US House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan unveiled a Republican healthcare agenda that would repeal Obamacare but keep some of its more popular provisions. He said that Obama's signature healthcare law limited choices for consumers while increasing costs, and introduced added bureaucracy. Ryan would keep more popular aspects of Obamacare, including not allowing people with pre-existing conditions to be denied coverage and permitting young adults to stay on their parent's plans until the age of 26.
BMI Economic View
Metropolitan regions will continue to drive headline economic growth in the US over the coming three to five years. Industry agglomeration, the rising concentration of similar industry-specific companies, will develop supply chains and a region's expertise in certain sectors, attracting further investment and skilled labour. We are seeing this play out with technology industries in Western metropolitan areas and manufacturing hubs sprouting in the South. In addition, Southern metropolitan areas, including Austin and Miami, will benefit from low operating costs, rising infrastructure spending and expanding transport links that will ease access to both domestic and foreign markets.
BMI Political View
Although there are clear parallels between the successful UK Brexit campaign and Donald Trump's US presidential bid, we believe that the differences - primarily stemming from demographics - are more significant. We thus continue to forecast a Hillary Clinton victory in November 2016, although the race will be closer than currently expected.
The United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United States, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.