United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Health expenditure in the US is forecast to increase by more than 50% over the next decade. A common misconception is that drug companies and medicine price hikes are accountable for this rise and the downward pressure it allegedly puts on prosperity. Latest data shows that healthcare accounts for 17.5% of GDP in the world's largest economy, while in most other developed states this figure is approximately 10%. In reality, expenditure on pharmaceuticals only accounts for a small component of overall health spending in the US, and that this proportion will actually decrease over the next 10 years.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals : USD333bn in 2015 to USD348bn in 2016; +4.3% growth. Market forecast revised downwards since Q 2 16 due to consideration and incorporation of new macroeconomic data.

  • Healthcare : USD3,139bn in 2015 to USD3,293bn in 2016; +4.9% growth. Forecast revised downwards since Q216 due to consideration and incorporation of new macroeconomic data.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 309.860 333.400 347.780 358.960 370.570 382.600 395.010
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.79 1.86 1.85 1.82 1.80 1.78 1.76
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
Health spending, USDbn 2,985.750 3,139.180 3,292.690 3,445.370 3,605.150 3,771.690 3,945.690

Risk/Reward Index

The US has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 83.9 out of 100 for Q316. This is slightly above the 82.8 recorded in Q216. The high RRI score recorded by the US underlines the pharmaceutical market's unassailable status as the most lucrative globally. This is due to unparalleled healthcare access, considerable spending power, a high burden of disease, minimal market access barriers and intense company activity. The key risks to this positive outlook are the increasing influence of pharmacy benefit managers and greater regulation, such as the Branded Prescription Drug Fee.

Latest Updates

April 2016

Pfizer announced that the merger agreement between Pfizer and Allergan, initially entered into in November 2015, was terminated by mutual agreement of the companies. The decision was driven by the actions announced by the US Department of Treasury on April 4 2016, which the companies concluded qualified as an 'Adverse Tax Law Change' under the merger agreement.

We updated our US healthcare expenditure forecast following the recent release of confirmed data from the WHO and incorporation of the latest macroeconomic considerations. Spending on medical services is now expected to increase from USD3,139bn in 2015 to USD4,936bn in 2025, equating to a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6%. This projection is slightly above the previous figures of USD3,121bn in 2015 and USD4,865bn in 2025 (CAGR of 4.5%).

March 2016

AARP, a non-profit, non-partisan organisation focused on people aged 50 and above, released a report entitled, 'Rx Price Watch Report: Trends In Retail Prices Of Prescription Drugs Widely Used By Older Americans, 2006 To 2013'. The report found that retail prices for a combined set of widely used prescription drugs have consistently increased faster than general inflation in every year from 2006 to 2013.

BMI Economic View

US economic growth will decelerate in 2016 on the back of a contraction in the oil sector as low prices erode profit margins and see investment in the industry fall significantly. In the latter half of the year, growth will head higher as the oil sector bottoms out while consumer spending grows.

BMI Political View

Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will likely be the next president of the US, given that her opponent, Donald Trump, will be unable to sufficiently expand his narrow base of support. Clinton will broadly continue the policies of President Barack Obama, leading to only modest changes for the US' business environment and economic trajectory through 2020.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
19
Patented Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
21
Generic Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
24
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
25
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (United States 2012-2020)
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (United States 2014-2020)
29
Industry Risk Reward Index
30
Americas Risk/Reward Index
30
United States Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
35
Regulatory Review
37
Intellectual Property Issues
52
Pricing & Reimbursement Regime
53
The November 2016 Presidential Election
55
Market Overview
57
Healthcare Sector
58
Table: Key Features Of The Affordable Care Act By Year
60
Table: Healthcare Resources (United States 2010-2015)
63
Table: Healthcare Personnel (United States 2010-2015)
63
Table: Healthcare Activity (United States 2010-2015)
64
Clinical Trials
64
Epidemiology
66
Competitive Landscape
69
Research-Based Industry
69
Table: Multinational Market Activity
69
Pharmaceutical Distribution
71
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
71
Company Profile
72
Amgen
72
AstraZeneca
77
Eli Lilly
81
GlaxoSmithKline
84
Merck & Co
88
Pfizer
92
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United States 1990-2025)
96
Table: Key Population Ratios (United States 1990-2025)
96
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United States 1990-2025)
97
Table: Population By Age Group (United States 1990-2025)
97
Table: Population By Age Group % (United States 1990-2025)
98
Glossary
100
Methodology
102
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
102
Notes On Methodology
103
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
104
Index Overview
105
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
105
Indicator Weightings
106

The United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for United States, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the American pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.