|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National sources, BMI|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, TWh||310.930||358.750||390.340||421.440||459.610||500.180||526.500|
|Generation, Non-Hydropower Renewables, % y-o-y||10.630||15.380||8.810||7.970||9.060||8.830||5.260|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, MW||117,273.9||136,671.3||155,421.6||173,833.3||192,902.7||213,362.7||228,203.6|
|Capacity, Non-Hydroelectric Renewables, % y-o-y||14.9||16.5||13.7||11.9||11.0||10.6||7.0|
Already a major renewable powerhouse, the US non-hydroelectric renewables market is poised for strong growth levels in our ten-year forecast of about 8% capacity growth, primarily on the solar market. Overall, we expect an added 131GW of non-hydro renewable capacity by 2025. While this growth is carried significantly by the five-year tax credit extension until 2020, the outcome of the November presidential election will decide over the country's energy path of the next four years with a Republican win severely threatening to undermine our above renewable growth levels.
Latest Updates and Structural Trends
We expect wind and solar capacity to grow by 10% and 44% in 2016 respectively, with overall non-hydopower renewables generating a 88% share of total electricity generation. Overall, non-hydro renewables capacity is estimated to grow by 17% in 2016, followed by 14% in 2017.
We maintain our downbeat outlook for US offshore wind power. Continued high costs, due to limited government support and the lack of a domestic supply chain, will ensure that project developers remain focused on the country's onshore wind segment.
The Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit has postponed oral arguments on the Clean Power Plan that was suspended by the Supreme Court in February 2016 until late September 2016 meaning a decision is unlikely to be made before the November presidential election. The plan aims to reduce emissions from power plants by 32% (based on 2005 levels) by 2030 and received judicial contestation by several states.
The Georgia Public Service Commission (PSC) in the US has approved electricity utility Georgia Power's integrated resource plan in August 2016, under which the company will add 1,600MW of renewable energy capacity by 2021.
In US signed the Paris Agreement in April 2016 that seeks to reduce the global average temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (down from a previous 2 degrees), and will enter into force once 55 countries that produce 55% of global GHG emissions ratified, accepted, approved or acceded to the agreement.
MidAmerican Energy Company filed a proposal with the Iowa Utilities Board in April 2016 to build an up to 2GW Wind XI power complex in the US state. The company is yet to identify a location for the USD3.6bn scheme.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) received a lease request from Trident Winds in March 2016 to develop an up to 800MW floating wind power project off the California coast, US. The proposed project will be built offshore Morro Bay and will be installed with 100 units of up to 8MW floating turbines. BOEM will now issue a Federal Register Notice to find out if any other firms are interested in developing projects in the same area. The agency will then launch a competitive or a non-competitive leasing process for the project, depending on whether any interest is expressed by other firms.
The United States Renewables Report researched at source contains BMI Research's assessment of the current renewables market in United States. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in United States, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in United States, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's United States Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the United States renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in United States, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.