BMI View: BMI maintains its cautiously optimistic view on the US shipping sector. We believe 2015 will see the country's major facilities consolidate the growth seen in 2014. Our overall view that the US economy will continue to accelerate remains firmly in place. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% in 2015.
Stronger contributions from personal consumption expenditure growth will be offset somewhat by slower fixed investment growth and a contraction in government spending, as well as a negative contribution from net exports. We believe currency strength will discourage foreign customers from purchasing US-produced goods and services over the near term, while promoting an increase in imports. As a result, we expect that any improvement in net exports will be subdued in real terms over the coming months. Over a longer time horizon, our Oil & Gas team is optimistic about a range of new fields coming online, which will reduce US demand for foreign energy and eventually provide an important source of export revenues in the form of liquefied natural gas.
We believe risks are weighted to the upside across the US economy. The most likely of these risks, we believe, is that a greater-than-expected improvement in the labour market or consumer sentiment will lead to much stronger demand for goods and services. Such an outcome could also lead to stronger business investment in capacity and support further housing market growth.
Key Industry Data
At the port of Los Angeles we forecast 3.5% growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in total tonnage in 2015, to reach 66.6mn tonnes.
At the East Coast port of New York/New Jersey (NYNJ) growth is forecast to be 4.1% y-o-y in 2015, to reach 144.8mn tonnes.
We expect Los Angeles to record growth of 5.4% in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput in 2015, falling to 8.9mn TEUs.
We expect NYNJ to record a growth of 4.0% in TEU throughput in 2015, to reach 6.0mn TEUs.
Oakland Benefits From LA-Long Beach Woes
The United States Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in United States.
BMI's United States Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in United States.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.