BMI View: The strong mobile market competition introduced by T-Mobile led to the cannibalisation of its competitors' customer bases, rather than contributing to further expansion in the number of basic phone users. Meanwhile, underlying market growth has come from connected devices, with the proliferation of smart homes and connected cars just the start of that particular market. In the wireline services sector, voice and TV continue to be under pressure, with the main growth driver being broadband and, especially, fibre broadband, underpinned by growing demand for heavy-data services. Regulatory decisions, such as the FCC changing its broadband definition to start at 25Mbps and the development of the Connected America Fund, will also drive broadband market growth, as operators look to offer higher speeds to customer s.
|3G & 4G Subscribers Starting To Dominate The Market|
|United States Mobile Market - 2013-2020|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
The US mobile market saw the addition of 13.35mn mobile customers in 2015. Despite being a relatively mature market, mobile growth has still not stalled, averaging 3.9% compound annual growth rate over the year up to December 2015. We forecast slow but steady growth in mobile subscriptions to 2020, with the market set to reach 377.63mn subscriptions.
We envisage the number of 3G/4G subscribers rising to over 307mn in 2020, equivalent to over 81% of the total mobile market. Network operators have concentrated on expanding the reach of 4G services across the country, launching in new markets on a regular basis.
In February 2016 AT&T unveiled its "5G Roadmap" which included the start of trials in 2016. According to AT&T technologies such as millimetre waves, network function virtualization (NFV), and software-defined networking (SDN) will be among the key ingredients for future 5G experiences.
The United States Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of United States's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's United States Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in United States.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for United States to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the American telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in United States's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in United States.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.