Venezuela Autos Report

Published 06 February 2015

  • 60 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Autos Report

Vehicle sales in Venezuela declined 76%, to 23,707 units, in 2014 as the increasingly poor economic outlook impacts the sector. Inflation is running very high, eroding consumers' purchasing power and appetite for big ticket purchases, such as new cars. High interest rates curtail demand for vehicle loans, and the ongoing weakness in the Venezuelan bolivar (and further weakness in the unofficial exchange rate) increasingly makes vehicle imports more expensive in local currency terms.

Vehicle production in Argentina declined 72.5% in 2014, to 19,759 units, as the domestic market contracted and the country's business environment deteriorated. This is broadly in line with our full year forecast, as we expected these dynamics to hamper the sector.

As downside risks to global oil prices mounted at the end of 2014, we highlighted how sustained low oil prices would have far reaching negative impacts on the Venezuelan automotive industry. In January 2015, BMI significantly revised down its 10-year price forecast for Brent crude oil - the global oil price benchmark - in response to long-term structural shifts in the global market and OPEC's decision to maintain oil production at 30mn barrels a day. Accordingly, we revised down our core view to our worst case scenario view, reducing our forecasts for Venezuelan vehicle production and sales over 2015.

Moreover, BMI has long maintained a bearish outlook on vehicle production in Venezuela, as the government continues to intervene in the economy, further restricting access to foreign currency and implementing import restrictions on auto components. The ongoing weakness in the local currency will also serve to make supplier imports more expensive, further exacerbating the shortage of components. Furthermore, the worsening business environment makes profitable operations in the country increasingly difficult as the government seeks to limit profit margins for companies.

BMI has long maintained that in order to see sustained...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Production, Sales and Trade
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
12
Production
13
Table: Vehicle Production By Brand
14
Sales
15
Table: Vehicle Sales By Brand
16
Used Cars
16
Passenger Vehicles
18
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
18
Commercial Vehicles
21
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
21
Motorcycles
22
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2012-2018)
22
Suppliers
24
Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Table: Economic Activity (Venezuela 2009-2018)
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Americas - Risk/Reward Index
30
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
Regional Overview
38
Industry Trend Analysis
38
Table: Latin America Production Investment Jun-Sep 2014
38
Global Industry Overview
43
Table: The Internet Of Cars
43
Demographic Forecast
45
Demographic Outlook 2015
45
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
47
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
47
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
48
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
48
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
49
Methodology
50
Industry Forecasts
50
Sector-Specific Methodology
51
Sources
51
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
52
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
53

The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc