Venezuela Autos Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 63 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Autos Report

In 2015, sales and production of vehicles in Venezuela will improve slightly but volumes will remain far below their pre-2013 levels. Production will remain stymied by bottlenecks in the supply of imported components owing to the restrictions on currency exchange in the country. These currency restrictions will also hold back sales volumes owing to dealers' inability to address the shortfall in production by ramping up imports.

BMI holds a considerably bearish outlook for vehicle production in Venezuela following the dramatic fall in oil prices in late 2014 which has drastically lowered Venezuela's revenues from oil exports and, as a result, has severely cut the country's supply of hard currency. This has meant the country's multi-tiered exchange rate system has become untenable with widespread capital restrictions and rationing of hard currency now limiting automotive manufacturers' ability to pay foreign suppliers for vital component import orders.

Like output, we also remain bearish in our outlook for sales volumes in the country. The current crisis in car sales is the result of supply-side factors in the industry whereby the supply of vehicles has dried up owing to the drop in output of local manufacturers and currency and import controls significantly limiting importers' ability to substitute falling output with imports of completely built-up vehicles.

If local manufacturers were able to increase output, or if imports increase, we believe there would more than sufficient demand to absorb these vehicles. With inflation rates above 60%, the highest in the world, demand for new and used vehicles in the country has soared as consumers seek to protect their wealth by purchasing tangible assets such as cars rather than keeping cash assets. As a result, waiting lists for new vehicles have grown dramatically and the price of used cars has soared upwards. The rise in demand for new vehicles has also forced the government to implement strict price controls on new cars,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Production, Sales and Trade
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
13
Production
14
Table: Venezuela Autos Production By Brand, Units
15
Sales
17
Table: Venezuela Vehicle Sales By Brand
19
Used Cars
19
Passenger Vehicles
21
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
21
Table: Passenger Car Sales By Company, Units
21
Production
22
Commercial Vehicles
25
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
25
Table: Venezuela LCV Sales, Units
26
Table: Heavy Truck Sales, Units
27
Table: Bus Sales, Units
27
Motorcycles
28
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
28
Suppliers
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Economic Analysis
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
37
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Index
40
Company Profile
41
Industry Trend Analysis
41
Regional Overview
46
Industry Trend Analysis
46
Table: Latin America - Production Investment Q115
46
Global Industry Overview
50
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs)
50
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch-
50
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady
52
Asia Carries The BRIC States
53
Demographic Forecast
55
Demographic Outlook 2015
55
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
56
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
56
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
57
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
58
Methodology
60
Industry Forecasts
60
Sector-Specific Methodology
61
Sources
61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Venezuela Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

BMI Research's Venezuela Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Venezuelan automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc