BMI View: The depth of the economic crisis in Venezuela is behind our view that it will be the underperforming consumer electronics market globally in 2016 and over the medium term to 2020. Spiralling inflation, bolivar weakness, the low oil price, regulatory risks and political uncertainty all contribute to a bleak economic outlook that impacts the devices market. We expect a further squeeze on the affordability of devices in the short term, while lack of dollar access has resulted in product shortages, and the environment is so challenging as to also impact the local assembly industry. A mild recovery after a volume and value collapse are only cautiously predicted for the final years of the forecast, and even this scenario has risk weighted to the downside. We envisage a CAGR of -6.6% for US dollar consumer electronics device spending over 2016-2020.
Latest Updates & Developments
Computer hardware; contraction from USD214mn in 2016 to USD172mn in 2020. Inflation to drive local currency growth, but outlook is bleak due to sharp reduction in affordability and product shortages as even local assembly has stalled due to extent of economic dislocation.
AV and gaming; contraction from USD246mn in 2016 to USD203mn in 2020. Device shortages in short term, and affordability squeeze over medium term, hurts the outlook for non-essential upgrades.
Handsets; USD578mn in 2016 to USD577mn in 2020. Handset segment forecast to begin recovery before other segments due to lower average selling price, large base of local production, and greater necessity of handset ownership.
|Devices Market Collapse In Midst Of Economic Crisis|
|Consumer Electronics Spending Forecast By Segment|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI|
The Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Venezuela.
BMI Research's Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.