Venezuela Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Venezuela Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views

  • Low oil prices, high inflation and a poor business environment will see Venezuela's recession stretch into its third year in 2016.

  • The ruling PSUV government will suffer major losses at the December legislative elections, although the policymaking trajectory will remain largely unchanged due to executive power. Political risk is on the rise due to elevated tensions associated with the polls.

  • Inflation will remain elevated, at the highest level in Latin America, and the operating environment will remain very precarious for foreign multinationals in the country.

Major Forecast Changes

  • We have downgraded our real GDP growth forecasts for 2016 and 2017, due to a further downgrade to our oil price forecasts and our expectations that policymaking will still be inhospitable to private investment.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Upside Risks: If the Maduro administration were to decide to take steps towards meaningful economic reforms, investor sentiment would rebound relatively quickly, lowering financing costs and increasing FDI inflows.

  • Downside Risks: The potential for elevated political tensions to materialise in a wider political crisis could result in a further deterioration of investor sentiment and lower economic growth. Although we have already downgraded our oil price forecasts, downside risks still exist, due to abundant supply and subdued global demand for crude.

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2016)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015f 2016f
National Sources/BMI
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.3 -2.5 -5.6 -4.2
Nominal GDP, USDbn 399.3 584.8 208.5 289.7
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 56.2 68.5 125.1 65.0
Exchange rate VEF/USD, eop 6.29 6.29 33.21 45.27
Budget balance, % of GDP -7.3 -11.1 -11.2 -10.2
Current account balance, % of GDP 1.3 1.4 -4.8 -2.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Index
7
Domestic Politics
8
Table: Political Overview
8
Long-Term Political Outlook
9
Post-Ch-vez Era To See Greater Turbulence
9
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Index
13
Economic Activity
14
Government Policies Will Deepen Recession
14
table: Economic Activit y
14
table: Priv ate Consumption Forec asts
14
table: Gove rnment Consumption Forec asts
15
table: Fixed Investment Forec asts
15
table: Net Exports Forecasts
15
Fiscal Policy
16
High Spending Amid Economic Malaise Will Keep Deficit Wide
16
table: Fisc al Polic y
16
Exchange Rate Policy
18
Further Back-Door Devaluations Ahead Amid Political Pressure
18
Balance Of Payments
19
Low Oil Prices And Unorthodox Policy Will Weigh On External Accounts
19
table: Current Account
20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
23
The Venezuelan Economy To 2024
23
Growth Outlook In A Post-Ch-vez Era
23
table: Long -Term Macroeconomic Forec asts
23
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
25
SWOT Analysis
25
Operational Risk Index
25
Operational Risk
26
table: Operational Risk
26
Market Size And Utilities
27
table: Latin Americ a - Market Size And Utilities Infrastructure
28
International Security Risk
32
table: Latin America - Inte rst ate Security Risks
32
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
37
Telecommunications
37
table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts
37
Power
41
table: Total Electricity Gene ration Data And Forecasts (2013-2018)
43
table: Total Electricity Gene ration Data And Forecasts (2019-2024)
44
Other Key Sectors
49
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
49
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
49
table: Defence and Security Sector Key Indicators
49
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
50
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
50
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
50
table: Freight Key Indicators
50
Chapter 6: BMI Global Macro Outlook
51
Global Macro Outlook
51
China Crisis To Have Far-Reaching Impact
51
Table: Global Assumptions
51
Table: Developed States , Re al GDP Growth, %
52
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
52
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
53

Assess your risk exposure in Venezuela with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Venezuela with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print, PDF and online formats
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
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  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report