BMI View: In view of the substantial headwinds facing the Venezuelan economy, we have downgraded our real GDP forecasts for the country for 2015 and 2016, seeing contractions of 5.6% and 2.9% respectively. The economy's outlook will continue to be dimmed by poor macroeconomic governance, high inflation, low oil prices and significant political uncertainty. We expect household consumption to continue to be constrained by high inflation - which has substantially eroded purchasing power (we forecast headline consumer price inflation of 78.3% y-o-y for 2015) - and government price controls, which create market inefficiencies that significantly reduce productivity (and, by extension, income). As a result, food consumption will suffer in US dollar terms over the short term.
Headline Industry Data (US dollar terms):
Per capita food consumption compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast 2014 to 2019 = -14.0%.
Alcoholic drink sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +9.0%.
Soft drink sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = +9.1%.
Mass grocery retail sales CAGR forecast 2014 to 2019 = -13.3%.
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Empresas Polar Dispute Further Worsens Beer Supply : The government of Venezuela has become entangled in a row with Empresas Polar breweries, exacerbating a beer shortage in the country. The row deepened in the week ended August 1 2015, with troops occupying a distribution centre. President Nicolas Maduro's government has accused the company, the country's largest brewer, of 'economic sabotage', according to reports. Problems have been festering since workers went on strike over a pay dispute at the beginning of July. The strike led to the closure of the units and low production at other operating breweries.
Fingerprint Scanners To Be Introduced In Supermarkets: President Nicolas Maduro's government announced in March 2015 that it would install 20,000 fingerprint scanners in the country's supermarkets - particularly in those stores that are...
The Venezuela Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Venezuela Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
- Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
- Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
- Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.