Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Venezuela Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: W e maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PD VSA . We expect Venezuela to continue to underperform given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of P D VSA . Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will deteriorate produc tion growth prospects as both PD VSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,462.0 2,398.6 2,326.4 2,278.5 2,242.4 2,217.7 2,203.6
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,163.9 1,179.1 1,194.4 1,209.9 1,225.7 1,241.6 1,257.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 22.0 22.9 24.3 25.4 26.2 27.1 27.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 24.3 25.2 26.2 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.9
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 55.00 51.00 53.00 55.00 60.00 67.00

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

  • Our crude production forecast for 2016 predicts a 3.0% y-o-y decline amid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its significant public sector spending plans.

  • The landmark victory of the opposition party in Venezuela's legislative elections held on December 6 marks a clear break from the country's recent past, and will serve as a strong mandate for reform. While this marks the first power shift away from the ruling party in nearly 17 years, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV)'s dominance in other branches of government and divisions within the opposing coalition will preclude a swift change in policy direction.

  • Venezuela's downstream sector continues to suffer from a lack of maintenance and underinvestment. This was illustrated by the blackout at the country's two largest refineries in October 2015, informing our modest capacity growth forecast through 2024.

  • Exports of both crude and refined products will decline as upstream activity wanes. Low fuel prices will prop up domestic demand and weigh on available export quantities through the remainder of our 10-year forecast period. Natural gas imports will also increase as domestic demand rises following the opening of the Juan Manuel Valdez gas-fired power plant in 2016.

  • On January 4, Venezuelan national oil company (NOC) Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) indefinitely postponed its plans to export natural gas to Colombia amid stronger domestic demand, supporting our previously-held view. As recently as November 2015, PDVSA reiterated its commitment to complete the long-awaited reversal of the Antonio Ricaurte pipeline and begin sending 1.1mn cu m per day of supplies by January 1. However, the NOC now claims they are unable to uphold this agreement given adverse weather conditions from El Nino and continued demand from their industrial sector - factors we previously claimed would threaten future exports.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Upstream Exploration
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
10
Upstream Projects
12
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
12
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Latest Updates:
14
Structural Trends
15
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
22
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
22
Upstream Production - Gas
22
Latest Updates
22
Structural Trends
23
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
26
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
26
Refining
26
Latest Updates
26
Structural Trends
27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
31
Refined Fuels Consumption
31
Latest Updates
31
Structural Trends
31
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2013-2018)
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Venezuela 2019-2024)
33
Gas Consumption
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2019-2024)
36
Trade - Oil
36
Crude Oil
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2019)
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
39
Refined Products
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
41
Latest Updates:
41
Structural Trends:
41
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
43
Industry Risk Reward Index
44
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
44
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
44
Downstream Index - Overview
45
Market Overview
46
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
46
Overview
46
State Role
46
Licensing And Regulation
47
Government Policy
47
International Energy Relations
48
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
52
Oil Refineries
52
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela
52
Oil Pipelines
55
LNG Terminals
55
Gas Pipelines
56
Competitive Landscape
58
Competitive Landscape Summary
58
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
59
Table: Key Upstream Players
60
Table: Key Downstream Player
60
Company Profile
61
Chevron
61
PDVSA
65
Repsol Venezuela
72
Total Venezuela
76
Other Summaries
79
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
87
Industry Forecast Methodology
87
Source
89
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
91
Table: Weighting
92

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.