Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 July 2015

  • 146 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W e maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil & gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PD VSA . We expect Venezuela to continue to underperform given the large scope of operational challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment , and the precarious financial situation of P D VSA . Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will deteriorate produc tion growth prospects as both PD VSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,675.0 2,675.0 2,605.3 2,550.0 2,496.5 2,440.0 2,378.6
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,108.5 1,163.9 1,179.1 1,194.4 1,209.9 1,225.7 1,241.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 746.0 762.8 776.1 791.7 807.5 825.7 844.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.8 22.0 22.9 24.3 25.4 26.2 27.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.6 27.7 29.3 31.1

Key developments include:

  • The sharp decline in world oil prices over the past several months has hit Venezuela particularly hard. State-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) provides approximately 95% of the country's total exports and nearly 42% of the country's total revenues. Given the unlikelihood of a price recovery, there is a rising risk of a PDVSA default, though we believe this remains unlikely in 2015.

  • Venezuelan heavy crude has been trading near record lows over the past three months, falling to USD50.70/bbl at time of writing. This will continue to weigh on national oil company (NOC) PDVSA's capex plans...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
27
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
27
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
27
Refining
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
31
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
31
Refined Fuels Consumption
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2018)
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2019-2024)
36
Gas Consumption
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2018)
39
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2019-2024)
39
Trade - Oil
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
45
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2013-2018)
47
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2019-2024)
48
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
49
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
49
Industry Risk Reward Index
53
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
53
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
53
Upstream RRI: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
55
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
56
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
58
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
60
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
61
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
61
Venezuela Downstream Index - Overview
62
Market Overview
63
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
63
Overview
63
State Role
63
Licensing And Regulation
64
Government Policy
64
International Energy Relations
65
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
70
Oil Refineries
70
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
70
Oil Pipelines
73
LNG Terminals
73
Gas Pipelines
74
Competitive Landscape
76
Competitive Landscape Summary
76
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
77
Table: Key Upstream Players
78
Table: Key Downstream Player
78
Company Profile
79
Chevron
79
PDVSA
83
Repsol Venezuela
91
Total Venezuela
95
Other Summaries
98
Regional Overview
103
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
103
Global Industry Overview
112
Table: Top 10 Global Oil Producers - Crude Oil, Condensates & NGLs Production ('000b/d)
112
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production Growth 2015-2024* ('000b/d)
115
Appendix
118
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
118
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, Global 2013-2018
118
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, Global 2019-2024
119
Latin America - Regional Appendix
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
121
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
125
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
126
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
126
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
127
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
128
Venezuela - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
129
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
129
Venezuela - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
132
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
136
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
137
Table: LPG Production, Consumption And Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
137
Glossary
139
Table: Glossary Of Terms
139
Methodology
141
Industry Forecast Methodology
141
Source
143
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
143
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
145
Table: Weighting
146

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%