Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Venezuela Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: W e maintain our downbeat outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned P d VSA . We expect Venezuela to underperform , given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of P d VSA . Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate produc tion growth prospects as P d VSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
2014e 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: OPEC, EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,548.0 2,544.0 2,406.6 2,353.0 2,309.5 2,277.5 2,256.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,163.6 1,140.3 1,060.5 1,071.1 1,092.5 1,106.7 1,121.1
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 762.8 765.8 754.4 752.8 760.4 769.9 779.5
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.9 22.8 24.1 25.2 26.0 26.9 27.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 23.7 24.6 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 46.50 57.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • We maintain our downbeat crude production forecast for 2016 this quarter to a contraction of 5.4% y-o-y amid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.

  • Crude production declines accelerated over H116, with OPEC data showing production falling to 2.37mn b/d in May, a 14.4% decline over the past year. Secondary sources report that output fell to 2.19mn b/d, the first time production fell below 2.2mn b/d in over 20 years.

  • President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first time in two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has long been a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whose members believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reform underscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscal regime as oil prices remain at historic lows.

  • Venezuela's downstream sector continues to suffer from a lack of maintenance and underinvestment. The power crisis of H116 exacerbated this trend will undermine downstream operations, weighing on domestic supplies of refined fuels. With the effects of El Nino expected to subside in the coming months, we believe the government will opt for a more short-term solution rather than address the underlying inefficiencies within the sector.

  • Exports of crude and refined products will decline as upstream activity wanes. Low fuel prices will prop up domestic demand and weigh on available export quantities over the remainder of our 10-year forecast period. Moreover, imports of newly liberalised US crude will increase over the next year, given strong demand for light crude for blending purposes.

  • On May 23, reports surfaced that Venezuelan national oil company (NOC) PdVSA is planning to issue USD2.5bn in promissory notes to delay payment of a portion of outstanding debt. The company has reportedly hired CP Capital to structure three-year notes with a one-year grace period that will have the same status as PdVSA's global bonds.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates and Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends:
15
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
24
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
24
Upstream Production - Gas
25
Latest Updates
25
Structural Trends
25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
28
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
28
Refining
29
Latest Updates
29
Structural Trends
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
33
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
33
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Latest Updates
34
Structural Trends
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
36
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
36
Gas Consumption
36
Latest Updates
36
Structural Trends
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
38
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
38
Trade - Oil
39
Crude Oil
39
Latest Updates
39
Structural Trends
39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2020)
42
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
42
Refined Products
42
Latest Updates
42
Structural Trends
43
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
44
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
45
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
45
Latest Updates
45
Structural Trends
45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
48
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
48
Industry Risk Reward Index
49
Latin America - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
49
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index
49
Composite RRI: Industry Downturn Weighs On Regional Performance
50
Upstream: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
51
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index
52
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
54
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index
56
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
57
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
57
Downstream Index - Overview
58
Market Overview
59
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
59
Overview
59
State Role
59
Licensing And Regulation
60
Government Policy
60
International Energy Relations
61
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
65
Oil Refineries
65
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela
66
Oil Pipelines
69
LNG Terminals
69
Gas Pipelines
70
Competitive Landscape
72
Competitive Landscape Summary
72
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
74
Table: Key Upstream Players
74
Table: Key Downstream Player
75
Company Profile
76
PDVSA
76
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela
77
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
77
Chevron
79
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Venezuela
80
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
80
Repsol Venezuela
82
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela
83
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
83
Total Venezuela
85
Table: Major Upstream Assets In Venezuela
86
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn)
86
Regional Overview
87
Latin America Overview
87
Table: Latin America Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade, 2014-2025
96
Glossary
98
Table: Glossary Of Terms
98
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Source
102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
102
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
104
Table: Weighting
105

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.