Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the oil and gas industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles, Competitive Landscape and Global and Regional Overview.

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Venezuela Oil & Gas Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: W e maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PD VSA . We expect Venezuela will underperform , given the large scope of above-ground challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment and the precarious financial situation of P D VSA . Moreover, sustained weakness in global oil prices will deteriorate produc tion growth prospects as PD VSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,462.0 2,375.8 2,271.4 2,224.8 2,189.9 2,165.9 2,152.4
Refined products production, 000b/d 1,163.6 1,140.3 1,140.3 1,151.7 1,174.7 1,190.0 1,205.5
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 762.8 778.0 778.0 785.8 793.7 803.6 813.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.9 22.8 24.1 25.2 26.0 26.9 27.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 23.7 24.6 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.6 28.5
Brent, USD/bbl 99.50 53.60 40.00 53.00 62.00 65.00 71.00

Latest Updates and Key Forecasts

  • Our crude production forecast for 2016 was downgraded this quarter to a contraction of 5.0% y-o-y amid sustained weakness in crude oil markets. This will negatively impact available investment in Venezuela's upstream sector as the government contends with its sizeable public sector spending plans.

  • President Nicolas Maduro announced an increase in the country's subsidised fuel prices for the first time in two decades on February 17, with prices taking effect on the 19th. Heavily discounted fuel has long been a key tenant of the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) party, many of whose members believe near free fuel to be an innate right of the Venezuelan people. This historic reform underscores the extent to which government debt has become unsustainable under the existing fiscal regime as oil prices remain at historic lows.

  • Venezuela's downstream sector continues to suffer from a lack of maintenance and underinvestment. This was illustrated by the blackout at the country's two largest refineries in October 2015, and the 50% utilisation rate reported at the 955,000b/d Paraguana Complex in March 2016.

  • Exports of crude and refined products will decline as upstream activity wanes. Low fuel prices will prop up domestic demand and weigh on available export quantities over the remainder of our 10-year forecast period. Moreover, imports of newly liberalised US crude will increase over the next year, given strong demand for light crude for blending purposes.

  • On April 7, in an effort to curb electricity demand, President Maduro decreed the official working week would end on Thursdays for the next 60 days. This will increase consumption of natural gas for power generation purposes over the next several months, with hydropower reservoirs at record lows from the El Nino phenomenon. This will undermine the country's gas export ambitions to an even greater extent, aligning with our long-held view.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2020)
7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Latest Updates
11
Structural Trends
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
15
Latest Updates
15
Structural Trends:
15
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
23
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
23
Upstream Production - Gas
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
24
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
27
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
27
Refining
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2014-2019)
32
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2020-2025)
32
Refined Fuels Consumption
33
Latest Updates
33
Structural Trends
33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
35
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
35
Gas Consumption
35
Latest Updates
35
Structural Trends
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2014-2019)
37
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2020-2025)
37
Trade - Oil
38
Crude Oil
38
Latest Updates
38
Structural Trends
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
41
Refined Products
41
Latest Updates
41
Structural Trends
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
42
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
43
Latest Updates
43
Structural Trends
43
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2014-2019)
45
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2020-2025)
45
Industry Risk Reward Index
46
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
46
Table: Latin America - Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
46
Composite RRI: Sector Shifts Continue To Take Shape
47
Upstream RRI: Few Shifts, But Changes Loom
48
Table: Latin America - Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
49
Downstream RRI: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
51
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
53
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
54
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
54
Downstream Index - Overview
55
Market Overview
56
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
56
Overview
56
State Role
56
Licensing And Regulation
57
Government Policy
57
International Energy Relations
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
62
Oil Refineries
62
Table: Active Refineries In Venezuela
62
Oil Pipelines
66
LNG Terminals
66
Gas Pipelines
67
Competitive Landscape
69
Competitive Landscape Summary
69
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil & Gas Sector
71
Table: Key Upstream Players
71
Table: Key Downstream Player
72
Company Profile
73
PDVSA
73
Chevron
80
Repsol Venezuela
84
Total Venezuela
88
Other Summaries
91
Regional Overview
96
Latin America Overview
96
Table: Latin America Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade
105
Glossary
107
Table: Glossary Of Terms
107
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Source
111
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
111
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
113
Table: Weighting
114

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.