Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

Published 08 May 2015

  • 138 pages
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$1,295.00
Venezuela Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: W e maintain our cautious outlook for Venezuela's oil and gas sector d espite vast below- ground potential and ambitious production plans by state-owned PD VSA . We expect Venezuela to continue to underperform given the large scope of operational challenges, including excessive political interference, chronic underinvestment, an unattractive operating environment , and the precarious financial situation of P D VSA . Moreover, the sustained fall in global oil prices will deteriorate produc tion growth prospects as both PD VSA and international investors face declining revenues and a reduction in available capex funds.

Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
2013 2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,675.0 2,697.8 2,627.6 2,572.2 2,518.4 2,461.6 2,399.9
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,139.2 1,196.2 1,211.8 1,227.5 1,243.5 1,259.6 1,276.0
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 784.0 806.0 828.5 851.7 875.6 900.1 925.3
Dry natural gas production, bcm 28.4 28.7 29.5 31.0 31.3 31.6 32.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 30.5 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.7 35.7 36.8

Key developments include:

  • The rapid decline in world oil prices over the past several months has hit Venezuela particularly hard. State-owned PDVSA provides approximately 95% of the country's total exports and nearly 42% of the country's total revenues. Given the unlikelihood of a price recovery, there is a rising risk of a PDVSA default, though we believe this is unlikely to happen in 2015.

  • Venezuelan heavy crude has been trading near record lows over the past three months, falling to USD48.17/bbl at time of writing. This will continue to weigh on national oil company (NOC) PD VSA's capex plans given the high...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Venezuela 2013-2019)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2013-2018)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Venezuela 2019-2024)
11
Upstream Projects
14
Table: Venezuela - Major Upstream Projects
14
Upstream Production - Oil
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
18
Table: Oil Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
18
Upstream Production - Gas
25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
25
Table: Gas Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
25
Refining
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2013-2018)
29
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Venezuela 2019-2024)
29
Refined Fuels Consumption
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2018)
34
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Venezuela 2019-2024)
34
Gas Consumption
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2013-2018)
36
Table: Gas Consumption (Venezuela 2019-2024)
36
Trade - Oil
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
38
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
41
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2013-2018)
43
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Venezuela 2019-2024)
43
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
47
Latin America - Risk/Reward Index
47
Table: Latin America Composite Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
48
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Reforms Prompting A Shake Up
50
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
50
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
53
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Index, Out of 100
55
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
56
Venezuela Upstream Index - Overview
56
Venezuela Downstream Index - Overview
57
Market Overview
58
Venezuela Energy Market Overview
58
Overview
58
State Role
58
Licensing And Regulation
59
Government Policy
59
International Energy Relations
60
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
64
Oil Refineries
64
Table: Refineries In Venezuela
64
Oil Pipelines
67
LNG Terminals
68
Gas Pipelines
68
Competitive Landscape
70
Competitive Landscape Summary
70
Table: Key Players - Venezuela Oil And Gas Sector
71
Table: Key Upstream Players
72
Table: Key Downstream Player
72
Company Profile
73
PDVSA
73
Chevron
79
Total Venezuela
83
Repsol Venezuela
86
Other Summaries
90
Regional Overview
95
Latin America Oil&Gas Regional Overview
95
Global Industry Overview
104
Oil Price Outlook
104
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* WTI And Brent, Front Month - USD/bbl
104
Table: 2015-2016 - Fundamental Pressure On Oil Prices
105
Appendix
112
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
112
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2013-2018
112
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2019-2024 ( Global 2019-2024)
113
Latin America - Regional Appendix
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
114
Table: Oil Consumption - Long Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
118
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
119
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2019 (bcm)
120
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2016-2024 (bcm)
121
Venezuela - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-Year Forecasts
122
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
122
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
122
Venezuela - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecasts
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2013-2018)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Venezuela 2019-2024)
128
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2013-2018)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Venezuela 2019-2024)
129
Glossary
131
Table: Glossary Of Terms
131
Methodology
133
Industry Forecast Methodology
133
Source
135
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
135
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
137
Table: Weighting
138

The Venezuela Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent forecasts for Venezuela including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Venezuela Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Venezuelan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Venezuela to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the upstream and downstream sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast:

  • Pricing: Oil price (USD/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene – USD/bbl) at global hubs.
  • Production, Consumption, Capacity & Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (‘000b/d); proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm) and fuels trade.
  • Imports & Exports: Crude oil exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of crude oil trade in USD. Fuels exports/imports (‘000s b/d) and value of fuels trade in USD. Natural gas imports/exports (bcm), by pipeline and/or LNG, and value of natural gas trade.

BMI’s Oil & Gas Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs, oil services companies) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the upstream and downstream market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

A profile of the upstream and downstream sectors, including analysis of reserves, output, consumption and trade of energy products; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Competitive landscape

Comparative company analyses by USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production (‘000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity (‘000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of the industry. Plus comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Global Oil Market & Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2024 for oil, gas and oil products.

Sources

The Oil & gas Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc