Venezuela Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
×

Sign up to download the Venezuela Retail Report

By submitting this form you are acknowledging that you have read and understood our Privacy Policy.

Thank you for your interest

You will shortly receive your free executive summary by email.

Venezuela Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: While long-term prospects look favourable for Venezuela, the short-term growth forecast remains uncertain , and at best will remain subdued over the medium run. The ruling government ' s highly interventi onist stance in retail, along with high inflation, a weak currency and subdued oil revenues provide for a uncertain economic outlook remain the greatest challenges facing the retail sector. The effect will see a rapid contraction in spending and disposable income levels and purely essentials focussed purchases as consumer confidence remains low.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
BMI/INE Venezuela

Key Views & Developments

  • While the country's economic struggles continue, discount retailers and sellers of basic goods will continue to perform relatively well.

  • Low oil prices will continue, affecting Venezuela's balance of payments picture and government income. This will have a negative impact on the government's extensive subsidy programmes and will damage consumer confidence.

  • Due to unfavourable business conditions in the country, the main trend in Venezuela has been the consolidation of larger chain stores across the retail sector as opposed to increasing numbers of new entrants. We expect this to continue, as only the larger chains have the ability to challenge the big state-owned chains.

  • Total household spending is set to rise from USD183.6bn in 2016 to USD223.3bn in 2020.

  • Net income per household is set to rise from USD10,383 in 2016 to USD12,056 in 2020.

  • The proportion of households earning more than USD10,000 a year is set to rise from 23.6% in 2016 to USD31.7% in 2020.

  • The proportion of young adults (aged 20-39 years), a key spending demographic, is set to fall slightly from 31.9% in 2016 to 31.6% in 2020.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Headline Retail Forecast
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
12
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Venezuela 2013-2020)
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
16
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Food & Drink
19
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
20
Clothing & Footwear
20
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
21
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
22
Personal Care
22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
23
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
24
Table: Household Income Data (Venezuela 2013-2020)
24
Table: Labour Market Data (Venezuela 2013-2020)
27
Demographic Forecast
28
Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2013-2020)
29
Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2013-2020)
30
Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2013-2020)
30
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Venezuela 2013-2020)
30
Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Urban (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
33
Latin America Risk/Reward Index
33
Table: Latin America Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
33
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
34
Rewards
34
Risks
35
Market Overview
36
Competitive Landscape
39
Clothing & Footwear
39
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
39
Household Goods
40
Table: Selected Household Goods Retailers
40
Electronics
40
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
40
Department Stores
41
Table: Selected Department Stores
41
E-Commerce
41
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers
41
Pharmacies
42
Table: Selected Pharmaceutical Retailers
42
Glossary
43
Methodology
50
Industry Forecast Methodology
50
Sources
53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
53
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
56

The Venezuela Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Venezuela Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.