Venezuela Retail Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the retail industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Retail Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Venezuela Retail Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: In the long term, the outlook for the Venezuelan retail sector is favourable, with the country's urbanised population and growing middle class set to drive demand for non-essential items. However, in the short term , retailers face significant challenges. The government's highly interventionist stance, as well as low oil prices, high inflation, difficulties in getting foreign currency and shortages of basic goods, make operating in Venezuela challenging.

Headline Household Spending
(2014-2020)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Instituto Nactional de Estadistica, BMI

Key Views And Developments

  • Total household retail spending will rise from USD202.4bn in 2016 to USD494.3bn in 2020, after sharp fluctuations in recent years.

  • Groceries will be the single largest component of household retail spending, at almost 33%, cementing the importance of essential products in the Venezuelan retail basket. We see no change in the overall composition of Venezuelan retail spending over our forecast period.

  • Venezuela's population will grow from 31.5mn in 2016 to 33.1mn by 2020.

  • The already high urbanisation rate will rise slightly, from 89.0% in 2016 to 89.3% in 2020.

  • We see continued, albeit declining, growth in the key 20-39 year old demographic, while the number of middle aged residents will increase more rapidly.

  • Net income per household will reach USD22,931 by 2020, after some sharp fluctuations in recent years.

  • These fluctuations caused the percentage of households earning USD10,000 or over to fall from 67.5% in 2014 to 29.3% in 2016, although we see a recovery to 70.9% by 2020.

  • Unemployment is high, though falling, and is set to decline from 13.8% in 2016 to 9.8% by 2020.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Headline Retail Forecast
10
Latest Updates
10
Structural Trends
11
Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2013-2020)
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP (Venezuela 2013-2020)
14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
15
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Latest Updates
18
Structural Trends
18
Food And Drink
19
Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
20
Clothing And Footwear
20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
21
Household Goods
21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
22
Personal Care
22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020)
23
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
24
Latest Updates
24
Structural Trends
25
Table: Household Income Data (Venezuela 2013-2020)
25
Table: Labour Market Data (Venezuela 2013-2020)
27
Demographic Forecast
28
Latest Updates
28
Structural Trends
29
Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2013-2020)
30
Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2013-2020)
30
Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2013-2020)
31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: 21 Years Plus (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2013-2020)
32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2013-2020)
33
Table: Population: Urban/Rural (Venezuela 2013-2020)
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index
34
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316
34
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index
35
Rewards
35
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Structural Trends
37
Shopping Centres
38
Department Stores
38
Clothing And Footwear
38
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
39
Electronics
39
Pharmacies And Drugstores
39
E-Commerce
39
Competitive Landscape
40
Clothing And Footwear
40
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers
40
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement
41
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers
41
Electronics
41
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
41
Department Stores
42
Table: Selected Department Stores
42
E-Commerce
42
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers
42
Pharmacies And Drugstores
43
Table: Selected Pharmacies And Drug Stores
43
Glossary
44
Methodology
51
Industry Forecast Methodology
51
Sources
54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
54
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Venezuela Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Venezuela Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

  • Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
  • Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
  • Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
  • Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

Sources

The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.