Venezuela Shipping Report

Published 27 July 2015

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$1,295.00
Venezuela Shipping Report

BMI View: The two largest ports in the country (Cabello and La Guaira) are both set to experience a poor 2015, with the ports poised to register contractions in tonnage and container growth. We believe that the recession that began in 2014 will become even more pronounced in 2015, and negative growth will persist into 2016, with the shipping industry caught in the headwinds.

Venezuela's balance of payments position will be significantly undermined by the low price of oil, as crude accounts for the vast majority of the country's exports. With the oil industry accounting for a huge 95% of the Venezuela's export earnings (25% of the country's GDP), the impact of it on the overall economy at large cannot be understated.

We have adjusted our forecasts for Venezuela's current account deficit due to a slight upgrade in our oil price forecasts, but still expect the balance to fall into negative territory in 2015 for the first time in more than 15 years. We are forecasting a shortfall of 4.6% of GDP in 2015, compared to an estimated surplus of 1.6% in 2014, and down markedly from before the financial crisis, when the country's current account surplus regularly reached double digits as a percentage of GDP.

Also affecting our forecasts for Venezuela's shipping sector this year is the fact that the most significant headwind for Venezuelan consumers remains headline inflation, which is among the world's highest. This means that imports continue to suffer, falling by an expected 1% in 2015, as domestic consumers feel the pinch in their pockets, resulting in slowing demand for imported luxury and higher end goods from abroad.

Headline Industry Data

  • The Port of Puerto Cabello is forecast to see y-o-y tonnage throughput contract in 2015 by 2.50%, while box throughput is set to contract by 9.00%.

  • The Port of La is forecast to see annual tonnage throughput contract in 2015 by 3.00%, while box throughput is set to decrease by 6.00%.

Key Industry Trends

Government Reaches...

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
9
Economic
10
Operational Risk
11
Industry Forecast
13
Puerto Cabello Throughput
13
Port Of La Guaira Throughput
17
Table: Major Ports Data (2012-2019)
20
Table: Trade Overview (2012-2019)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (2012-2019)
21
Table: Venezuela's Top Import Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
22
Table: Venezuela's Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 (USDmn)
23
Market Overview
24
Venezuela
24
Company Profile
32
Petr-leos de Venezuela Marina
32
Shipping - Global Industry View
35
Three Container Routes To Watch In 2015
35
Global Company Strategy
42
Maersk Line
42
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
53
CMA CGM
59
Evergreen Line
68
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
76
Macroeconomic Forecasts
84
Economic Analysis
84
Demographic Forecast
89
Demographic Outlook 2015
89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Venezuela 1990-2025)
90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Venezuela 1990-2025)
90
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Venezuela 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group (Venezuela 1990-2025)
91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Venezuela 1990-2025)
92

The Venezuela Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and BMI Research's independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Venezuela.

BMI's Venezuela Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Venezuela.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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