BMI View : Despite three companies being awarded LTE spectrum in December, we remain bearish towards its impact on mobile broadband growth. Uncertainty regarding the political situation along with the deteriorating economy has lowered confidence and caused Venezuelans to leave their higher-value subscriptions for more basic ones. This situation is unlikely to change in the near future. Furthermore, the growth of mobile broadband has not been very strong. The government's heavy influence over the telecoms market, with state-owned firms playing major roles, could have negative consequences over the short-to-medium term.
Mobile subscriptions registered a slight decline in Q314, according to data from the telecoms regulator Conatel, with subscriptions reaching 31.530mn by the end of September 2014. This is a small dropfrom the 31.719mn subscriptions registered at the end of September 2013.
Conatel reported Venezuela had 14.95mn internet users and 3.7mn broadband subscriptions in 2013.
Key Trends & Developments
Two of the country's largest operators Movilnet and Movistar and pay-TV operator DirecTV were awarded 4G spectrum in December 2014. Hyperinflation, government interference and declining mobile broadband connections will weigh on investor appetite for 4G capex in line with our bearish outlook for the technology. Digitel, currently country's only 4G provider, has only reached 100,000 4G subscribers since launching in September 2013. Despite this, Movistar has announced that it expects to invest VEF9bn (USD1.43bn) in 2014 in Venezuela and it is planning to launch commercial 4G LTE services in the capital city of Caracas in Q115. BMI believes that Movilnet will also launch 4G network soon, while DirecTV has announced that it will initially concentrate only on fixed LTE-based broadband services.
At President Maduro's request, MinCI and Conatel will regulate pay-TV content with new entity the New Television Promotor Committee to evaluate. The...
The Venezuela Telecommunications Report features BMI Research's independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Venezuela's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Venezuela Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Venezuela.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Venezuela to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Venezuela's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Venezuela.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
- Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.