Vietnam Agribusiness Report

Published 15 June 2015

  • 106 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Vietnam Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environment outlooks add further weight to our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairy sectors. Moreover, the upcoming economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports of rice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets . T he fulfilment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves both product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on crop productivity in order to not be left behind and , if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)

Key Forecasts

  • Rice consumption growth to 2019: 10.4% to 23.6mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice and, over the forecast period, we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

  • Corn production growth to 2018/19: 30.2% to 6.7mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remain stagnant or diminish, current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available via this avenue, especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will be another important driver.

  • Milk production growth to 2018/19: 62.2% to 79 5,7 00 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency - will be the...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
19
Rice Outlook
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2013-2019)
21
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
24
Dairy Outlook
25
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
26
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
26
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
26
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
27
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity
28
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
33
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
33
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
33
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
34
Livestock Outlook
35
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
36
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
36
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
36
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
42
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
42
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
42
Coffee Outlook
44
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
45
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
49
Commodities Price Analysis
51
Commodity Strategy
51
Table: Impact Of El Ni-o On Crops
51
Upstream Analysis
56
Asia GM Outlook
56
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
58
Asia Machinery Outlook
59
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
60
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
66
Downstream Analysis
71
Mass Grocery Retail
71
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
74
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
75
Drink
76
Alcoholic Drinks
76
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
77
Hot Drinks
79
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
80
Soft Drinks
81
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Vietnam 2014-2019)
82
Food
84
Food Consumption
84
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019)
85
Canned Food
85
Confectionery
86
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019)
88
Pasta
89
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
90
Dairy
90
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
90
Regional Overview
92
Competitive Landscape
98
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
98
Demographic Forecast
99
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
100
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
100
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
101
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
101
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
102
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
105

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Vietnam Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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