Vietnam Agribusiness Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the agribusiness industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, Supply & Demand Forecasts, Commodity Price Analysis and Company Profiles.

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Vietnam Agribusiness Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Recent developments in the country's economic and business environment s add further weight to our positive view on Vietnam's agribusiness sector. The industry holds strong growth opportunities in terms of production, exports and retail sales, particularly with regard to the rice, coffee, livestock and dairy sectors. Moreover, economic and financial integration in South East Asia will benefit Vietnam's exports of rice, dairy and coffee. However, Vietnam is facing growing competition in its key markets . T he fulfilment of its promising potential will only be achieved if the country steps up its competitiveness and improves both product quality and supply chain efficiency. Vietnam will have to significantly ramp up investments on crop productivity in order to not be left behind and , if it does, it will be able to produce more value-added crops and maintain its status as an export spearhead.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2011-2019)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: FAO, BMI

Key Forecasts

  • Rice consumption growth to 2019: 12.0% to 24.0mn tonnes. Rice remains the major food staple in Vietnam, and we do not see this changing over our forecast period. However, rising interest in other foods such as wheat-based goods - supported by growing affluence - will restrict demand for rice, and over the forecast period we expect production growth to significantly outpace that of consumption.

  • Corn production growth to 2018/19: 32.3% to 6.8mn tonnes. Although acreage is likely to remain stagnant or diminish, current yield immaturity means significant gains are still available via this avenue, especially as robust local corn prices provide incentives to farmers. Domestic consumption will be another important driver.

  • Milk production growth to 2018/19: 62.2% to 796,000 tonnes. Dramatic increases in cattle numbers and increased public and private sector investment - part of the effort to reduce the country's growing import dependency - will be the main boost to growth. Commercialisation will also play a key role as larger, more efficient farms come to play a greater role in milk production.

  • 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD44.1bn (up from USD43.4bn in 2015 ; growth expected to average 3.3% annually between 2016 and 2019).

  • 2016 real GDP growth: 6.6 % (up from 6.4% expected in 2015; predicted to average 6.4% over 2015-2019).

  • 2016 consumer price index: 2.1% y-o-y (up from 0.8% expected in 2015; predicted to average 4.2% over 2015-2019).

Key Developments

Improvement in Vietnam's economic activity in 2016 will help consumer spending increase, after weak demand in 2014 weighed on demand for value-added agricultural products, including dairy.

The stronger economic outlook, coupled with some reforms regarding foreign investment and stated-owned enterprises, is attracting a growing amount of domestic and foreign investors and reaffirms our bullish view on the agribusiness sector. Vietnam is seeing a wave of private investment in its upstream (farming) and downstream (dairy product manufacturing and distribution) dairy sectors. The feed sector is also attracting investors, with Cargill announcing in Q415 that it will build two new feed mills in Vietnam, adding to the 10 the company already owns in the country.

The Vietnamese economy is also increasingly liberalising its trade. It is part of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), which is supposed to start on December 31, 2015, as well as of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which will liberalise trade within 12 member countries. Vietnam also reached an agreement in principles on a free trade agreement with the European Union in 2015. The actual decrease in tariffs and non-tariff barriers to trade will take years to be implemented in the case of the AEC, and the TPP needs to be ratified before it takes effect. However, we believe all these trade deals point at a clear liberalisation of trade for Vietnam, including agriculture products. Given the low competitiveness of Vietnam's livestock production, this trade liberalisation trend is likely to lead to growing imports of meat in the coming years.

After decades of active support to the rice sector, Vietnam is shifting its attention to corn and soybean production in order to address its soaring animal feed deficit and to avoid rice oversupply. The future increase in domestic feed output is likely to favour the development of the livestock sector.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Operational Risk
12
Industry Forecast
14
Grains Outlook
14
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
15
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
18
Rice Outlook
19
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
20
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
22
Dairy Outlook
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
25
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
25
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
25
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
26
Table: Vietnam - Planned Investment In Milk Production Capacity
27
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
32
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
32
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
32
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
32
Livestock Outlook
34
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
35
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
35
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
35
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
41
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
41
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
41
Coffee Outlook
43
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2014-2019)
44
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Vietnam 2009-2014)
48
Commodities Price Analysis
50
Commodity Strategy
50
Monthly Grains Update
55
Upstream Analysis
59
Asia Machinery Outlook
59
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
63
Asia GM Outlook
67
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use
69
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
70
Downstream Analysis
75
Food
75
Food Consumption
75
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019)
77
Canned Food
77
Confectionery
77
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2019)
80
Pasta
81
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
82
Dairy
82
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
82
Drink
84
Alcoholic Drinks
84
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
86
Hot Drinks
87
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
89
Soft Drinks
90
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Vietnam 2014-2019)
91
Mass Grocery Retail
93
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019)
97
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
97
Regional Overview
98
Table: Impact Of El Ni-o On Crops
102
Competitive Landscape
104
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USDmn)
104
Demographic Forecast
105
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
106
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
106
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
107
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Vietnam Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Vietnam Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.