BMI View: Despite sentiment in East Asian markets deteriorating in August 2015 after declines in regional equity markets, we believe the Vietnamese economic and consumer electronics growth story is resilient and we therefore maintain our bullish outlook in the Q415 update. Local retailers reported strong sales of PCs, tablets, TVs, digital cameras and smartphones in H115 - particularly around the Tet New Year holiday season, and while we expect growth to slow in H215, we consider Vietnam's consumer electronics market to have a bright outlook. A sharp deterioration in economic performance in China would have negative implications for Vietnam, but under our core scenario the strength of the income growth and economic modernisation dynamic in Vietnam - alongside falling average device prices in key device categories - will maintain the strong growth trend in device spending. We maintain a positive outlook for the duration of our five-year forecast period, with CAGR of 7.3% envisaged for 2015-2019, with even stronger growth expected in the smartphone, tablet, notebook and LED/LCD TV set markets.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD1.41bn in 2014 to USD1.49bn in 2015, +5.9% in US dollar terms. Low-cost tablets from Chinese OEMs have proved popular with consumers, but there is also scope for growth in the desktop and notebook markets due to low household PC penetration.
AV Sales : USD1.01bn in 2014 to USD1.15bn in 2015, +13.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged in Q415, with a key demand driver being the digitisation of TV services, while owing to very low penetration the digital camera outlook is considerably brighter in Vietnam than in developed APAC markets.
Handset Sales : USD2.48bn in 2014 to USD2.86bn in 2015, +15.4% in US dollar terms. We expect another strong year of growth for smartphone sales in Vietnam in 2015, which will drive up the average selling price in the handset market.
|Device Sales Growth Story Resilient...|
The Vietnam Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Vietnam.
BMI Research's Vietnam Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Vietnam.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese consumer electronics market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.