BMI View: We believe the Vietnamese economic and consumer electronics growth story is resilient and we maintain our bullish medium - term outlook in the Q116 update. Broad - based economic growth is expected to have a positive impact on the household income profile of Vietnam over the medium term, which will deepen the devices market, as well as easing price sensitivity in the higher value replacement market. Meanwhile, falling average device prices in key device categories will add to device spending growth momentum. We forecast a CAGR of 9.1% for 2016-2019, with even stronger growth expected in the smartphone, tablet, and LED/LCD TV set markets. However, t here is downside to this outlook, with a hard landing in China or a broader emerging market debt crisis following rate rises in the US holding the potential to derail our core scenario.
Latest Updates & Industry Developments
Computer Hardware Sales: USD1.49bn in 2016 to USD1.99bn in 2019, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +9.1% in US dollar terms. Significant growth potential exists due to low device penetration rates, which we expect to be unlocked due to the strength of income growth trends in Vietnam over 2016-2019.
AV Sales : USD1.25bn in 2016 to USD1.38bn in 2019, a CAGR of +8.2%. Significant potential for upgrade sales in the flat panel TV market in Vietnam, in contrast to developed APAC markets, while the digitisation of TV services will add to growth momentum.
Handset Sales : USD3.15bn in 2016 to USD3.56bn in 2019, a CAGR of +9.5%. Smartphone upgrade momentum will underpin the expansion of the handset segment over the medium term by driving up the average selling price in the handset market as a whole, but due to increased saturation growth will decelerate over the forecast period.
|Market Will Be Boosted By New Entrants As Incomes Rise|
|Vietnam Household Income Breakdown (USD) (2015-2019)|
|f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, National Sources|
The Vietnam Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Vietnam.
BMI Research's Vietnam Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Vietnam.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Vietnam through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.