Vietnam Food & Drink Report

Published 31 December 2014

  • 139 pages
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$1,295.00
Vietnam Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We hold a positive outlook for the Vietnamese consumer, as the government targets economic growth through public spending and promoting investment and exports. We forecast real GDP growth at 5.7% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015, on the back of supportive government policies, as well as a strong outlook for foreign investment and exports . However, political risks remain in the form of Chinese tensions, which we believe will continue for some time.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 total food consumption growth: +19.2%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013 to 2018: +19.6%.

  • 2014 per capita food consumption growth: +18.1%; CAGR to 2018: +18.6%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales growth: +12.0%; CAGR to 2018: +11.2%.

  • 2014 soft drinks value sales growth: +10.5%; CAGR to 2018: +9.7%.

  • 2014 MGR sales growth: +13.3%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +12.6%.

Key Industry Trends

Metro Retail Exit Does Not Diminish Positive Vietnam View : In early August 2014, the German cash-and-carry retailer Metro is planning to sell its Vietnam business, potentially pulling in EUR1.75bn. The decision to leave Vietnam is driven by the need to re-focus on its core Europe business and strengthen its balance sheet, rather than being based on any major structural issues or re-rating in the growth profile of the organised food retail sector. Like some of the other major European retailers, namely Carrefour and Tesco, Metro has had to rein in spending internationally over the past two to three years as retail sales across Western Europe have remained weak while, more recently, Russia, one of Metro's key markets, has slowed down in 2014. We still see Vietnam as one of South-East Asia's best retail opportunities.

Vietnam Likely To Benefit From Russia Import Ban : Vietnam will benefit from Russia's ban on agricultural imports from select countries, including the US and the EU. Russia implemented the ban in August 2014 and it will likely last...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
18
Canned Food
19
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
19
Confectionery
20
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2018)
24
Pasta
26
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
26
Dairy
26
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
27
Drink
28
Alcoholic Drinks
28
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
30
Hot Drinks
31
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
32
Soft Drinks
33
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Vietnam 2013-2018)
34
Mass Grocery Retail
36
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
40
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%)
40
Trade
41
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2018)
42
Macroeconomic Forecast
43
Economic Analysis
43
Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2009-2018)
49
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
50
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q414
51
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q414 (scores out of 10)
55
Vietnam Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Market Overview
58
Food
58
Agriculture
58
Food Processing
59
Food Consumption
59
Drink
61
Hot Drinks
61
Soft Drinks
61
Alcoholic Drinks
62
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets (Vietnam 2005-2014)
66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Vietnam 2011-2018)
66
Industry Trends And Developments
68
Food
68
Key Industry Trends And Developments
68
Drink
73
Key Industry Trends And Developments
73
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Key Industry Trends And Developments
81
Competitive Landscape
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Food Sector
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Drink Sector
85
Table: Key Players In Vietnam's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
86
Company Profile
88
Vinamilk
88
Table: Vinamilk's Financial Highlights, 2008-2013
97
Unilever Vietnam
99
Nestl- Vietnam
102
Masan Consumer
104
San Miguel Pure Foods Vietnam Co Ltd
107
Hanoi Beer Alcohol Beverage Corp (Habeco)
109
Saigon Beer Alcohol And Beverage Corporation (Sabeco)
112
Carlsberg
114
Saigon Co-op
116
Global Industry Overview
119
Table: Select Food Companies - R&D And Advertising Financials
125
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
127
Demographic Forecast
128
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
129
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
130
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
131
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
131
Glossary
132
Food & Drink
132
Mass Grocery Retail
132
Methodology
134
Industry Forecast Methodology
134
Sector-Specific Methodology
135
Sources
135
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
136
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
137
Table: Weighting
138

The Vietnam Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Vietnam Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Vietnam.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Vietnam through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc