BMI View : We maintain our positive outlook for Vietnam's construction sector, which will continue to be supported by strong economic growth and regulatory changes. We forecast transport infrastructure to outperform in 2016, followed by the energy and utilities sub-sector. We also maintain our positive outlook on the residential and non-residential construction sector, supported by large FDI inflows and a strong project pipeline, and which will register the strongest growth over the long term.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
The government's decision to select investors for 23 large-scale transport infrastructure PPP projects worth VND39.9trn (USD1.83bn) in 2016 poses upside risks to the transport infrastructure sector, which we forecast to grow at 7.1% in 2016.
We maintain our positive outlook for the residential and non-residential segments, which we forecast to grow at annual average of 6.5% between 2016 and 2020. Real estate and manufacturing sectors will continue to be the key drivers of growth in the sector.
We forecast Vietnam's energy and utilities sector to grow at 5.9% in 2016, following the transport infrastructure sector. The growth will slow beyond 2016, averaging at 5% between 2016 and 2025.
Despite our positive outlook for Vietnam's infrastructure sector, we highlight that fiscal weakness poses major risks to construction growth. Consistent fiscal deficits in Vietnam as a result of a lack of spending prudence could undermine much needed infrastructure development and weigh on economic growth.
|e/f=BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, BMI|
|Construction industry value, VNDbn||215,873.39||232,993.45||259,029.04||287,501.51||318,830.25||353,458.93||391,414.87|
|Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y||2.06||5.88||6.27||6.09||6.10||6.06||6.04|
|Construction Industry Value, % of GDP||5.1||5.1||5.0||5.0||5.0||5.0||4.9|
Vietnam has achieved a score of 54.3 out of 100 in our Asia Pacific infrastructure Risk/Reward Index. It remains in the lower half of the rankings in 14th position, out of 21 countries. This is largely owing to the high business risks due to corruption and significant potential for delays to project development.
That said, the country actually has one of the fastest moving business environments in the region. Rapid expansion has raced ahead of the regulatory environment and after Indonesia the country is an outperformer among emerging South East Asian countries in terms of rewards.
Industry Risks represent the largest hurdle for Vietnam at present, as the country continues to score only 40 in this category, below the regional average of 61. This is indicative of structural weaknesses in the infrastructure sector, which in turn pose long-term risks to investors.
|Risk/Reward Index||Rewards||Industry Rewards||Country Rewards||Risks||Industry Risks||Country Risks|
The Vietnam Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Vietnam Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Vietnamese infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.