BMI View : We maintain a positive outlook for Vietnam's construction sector and expect growth to be underpinned by an improving regulatory environment, favourable monetary conditions and a strengthening economy, with the transport sector being a key driver. We highlight that our forecasts still represents a slowdown from previous years due to a challenging business environment that will hinder investment over the coming quarters.
Key Trends And Developments
We maintain a positive outlook for Vietnam's construction sector and expect real growth of 5.9% in 2015 and to average 6.1% per annum between 2015-2019. This is slower than the 10-year historical average growth rate of 7.1% between 2004 and 2013.
Positive reform momentum as seen in the new Decree regarding Public-Private Parterships (Decree 15/2015/ND-CP) as well as implementation of the 2014 Investment Law will help facilitate private investment and also boost FDI.
We expect monetary easing by the State Bank of Vietnam (rate cuts to 6.0%) to provide greater liquidity and lower cost of capital for construction companies, also increasing business activity.
Expectations of stronger GDP growth in 2015 also bode well for the financial viability of construction projects. Sustained growth in manufacturing activity and easing of foreign property ownership regulations will boost residential and non-residential construction.
We highlight growth will still not be at full potential, largely owing to the long implementation period required before reforms can have a significant impact on the sector.
Transport will remain a key area of focus for the government, given a severe transport infrastructure deficit. Road construction will be a bright spot in the segment as the government aims to resolve congestion in major cities. We also see opportunities in the airport segment.
The Vietnam Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.
BMI's Vietnam Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese infrastructure and construction industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Vietnamese infrastructure market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).
Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.
The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).
BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.