Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Vietnam's disease profile will be increasingly attractive for prescription drugmakers as chronic conditions become more prevalent. To adequately meet this large unmet medical need, pharmaceutical firms will have to adapt their product portfolios to account for the low purchasing power of the populace. Equally critical will be the need to coordinate with local healthcare institutions to improve Vietnam's diagnosis rates, which remain impeded by its underdeveloped medical system.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: VND92.471trn (USD4.22bn) in 2015 to VND105.482trn (USD4.61bn) in 2016; +14.1% in local currency terms and +9.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast largely unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: VND260.29trn (USD11.9bn) in 2015 to VND286.45bn (USD12.5bn) in 2016; +10.1% in local currency terms and +5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast largely unchanged from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 3.808 4.219 4.608 5.057 5.640 6.375 7.167
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.05 2.18 2.29 2.33 2.35 2.36 2.37
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 34.1 35.5 36.8 37.9 38.8 39.5 40.0
Health spending, USDbn 11.159 11.875 12.513 13.332 14.524 16.127 17.911

Risk Reward Index

Vietnam's Pharmaceutical Risk Reward Index score for Q216 is 48.3 out of the maximum 100. The country scored above average for overall market expenditure and sector value growth. Consequently, with this moderate score, Vietnam is ranked 13th (down one position compared to the previous quarter) out of the 19 key Asia Pacific markets, level with Thailand and Philippines.

Key Trends And Developments

  • In November, the health department of Vietnam's southern Dong Nai Province has imposed a fine of over VND1.5bn (USD67,000) on 110 private clinics and pharmaceutical companies for alleged violation of medical regulations, according to the Vietnam News Agency. Most of the concerned clinics were operating without licenses and employed unqualified doctors, who arbitrarily asked patients to undergo pre-clinical tests to increase treatment costs.

  • In November, people in some localities in Vietnam are still finding it difficult to buy health insurance, even though the health ministry has devised a policy to expand coverage to the entire population, reports Tuoi Tre News. About 25mn people, mostly freelance or unskilled labourers, in the country are uninsured because of complicated administrative procedures.

  • Many people living in the central Binh Dinh province's My Chau commune in Vietnam are yet to receive free health insurance coverage despite eligibility, according to deputy chairperson of My Chau People's Committee, Le Trung Kien. Vice director of the Binh Dinh Province's Department of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs, Phan Dinh Hoa has blamed the commune's People's Committee for the slow uptake.

BMI Economic View

Vietnamese local currency government bond yields are likely to head higher over the coming months due to elevated levels of public debt, a high fiscal deficit, and rising currency risks. Meanwhile, we have also revised our forecast for Vietnam's budget deficit as a share of GDP to come in at 5.3% (from 4.9% previously) in 2016, as we expect expenditure growth to outpace revenue in the coming year.

BMI Political View

Despite the ousting of pro-reform Nguyen Tan Dung, and the reappointment of conservative Nguyen Phu Trong to the General Secretary position during the CPV's 12th National Party Congress, we believe that the upcoming leadership is unlikely to make dramatic changes to existing policies that have propelled Vietnam's rapid economic growth over the past few years. More importantly, the injection of new blood into the party will likely sustain crucial market reforms over the coming years, which will allow Vietnam to stay on course with its strong growth trajectory.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
17
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
17
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
19
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
25
OTC Medicine Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2012-2020)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2020)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Vietnam 2014-2020)
31
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Risk/Reward Index
32
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
32
Vietnam Risk/Reward Index
38
Rewards
38
Risks
38
Regulatory Review
40
Intellectual Property Issues
42
Pricing Regime
46
Reimbursement Regime
51
Market Overview
54
Healthcare Sector
55
Table: Healthcare Resources (Vietnam 2010-2015)
58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Vietnam 2010-2015)
58
Table: Healthcare Activity (Vietnam 2010-2015)
59
Research & Development
64
Clinical Trials
68
Competitive Landscape
74
Research-Based Industry
74
Table: Multinational Market Activity
78
Pharmaceutical Distribution
79
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
79
Table: Key Aspects Of Good Pharmacy Practice In Developing Countries
81
Company Profile
82
DHG Pharmaceutical
82
GlaxoSmithKline
84
Sanofi
86
Traphaco Pharmaceutical
89
Vietnam Pharmaceutical Corporation (Vinapharm)
91
Demographic Forecast
94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
95
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
97
Glossary
99
Methodology
101
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
101
Notes On Methodology
102
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
103
Index Overview
104
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
104
Indicator Weightings
105

The Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnam pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Vietnam, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.