Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Vietnam will be a highly attractive market for private healthcare providers in the region. Beyond the expected strong increases in healthcare spending, there are also significant service gaps in the market that will provide revenue earning opportunities to companies looking to invest in the sector. These stem from the underdeveloped state of the public health sector characterised by overcrowded hospitals and patients with limited access to advanced medical treatments. This will in turn affect the strategies employed by pharmaceutical firms, as private hospitals will present an alternative sales channel for high value medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: VND80.73trn (USD3.81bn) in 2014 to VND92.47trn (USD4.17bn) in 2015; +14.5% in local currency terms and +9.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: VND234.91trn (USD11.08bn) in 2014 to VND258.67bn (USD11.66bn) in 2015; +10.1% in local currency terms and +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 3.295 3.808 4.167 4.586 5.222 5.938 6.715
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 1.93 2.05 2.19 2.29 2.33 2.35 2.37
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 32.5 34.4 35.7 37.0 38.1 39.0 39.7
Health spending, USDbn 10.146 11.081 11.655 12.386 13.702 15.227 16.925

Risk Reward Index

Vietnam's Pharmaceutical Risk Reward Index score for Q116 is 48.4 out of the maximum 100. The country scored above average for overall market expenditure and sector value growth. Consequently, with this moderate score, Vietnam is ranked 12th (same as in the previous quarter) out of the 19 key Asia Pacific markets, level with Thailand and Indonesia.

Key Trends And Developments

  • As announced in September, under a new circular issued by Vietnam's Ministry of Health and Ministry of Finance, patients will be allowed to pay hospital fees through their health insurance for health examinations and treatments on weekends and holidays as long as the correct number of medical personnel are present and assure proper professional conditions with enough equipment; the circular is expected to help working people who face difficulties coming to check ups and treatments on weekdays.

  • In September, Vietnam's education and training ministry has ordered the department of education and training, universities and colleges to increase awareness on health insurance programmes amongst students, pupils and parents in a move towards universal health coverage in the country. Based on the country's social insurance data, social health insurance covers 85% of students and pupils at present and the participation rate is low due to poor attention being given by some educational establishments, ineffective communication and insufficient collaboration between the education department and the health and social insurance sectors.

  • As announced in September, the Japanese government is promoting its healthcare and preventive medicine industries to foreign markets and Vietnam is among the targeted countries, according to the Japan External Trade Organization's Director Yasuzumi Hirotaka. Heart diseases, diabetes and obesity are among the biggest risks threatening the Vietnamese and people with rising incomes prefer better, premier healthcare services that Japanese businesses can offer.

BMI Economic View

We expect Vietnam's fiscal revenue growth to accelerate on the back of a robust economy, ongoing SOE reforms and the positive tax reform policies that have been implemented in recent years. That said, a continued lack of spending prudence by the government will act as a drag. As such, we forecast the country's fiscal deficit as a share of GDP to narrow marginally to 4.9% in 2016, from an estimated 5.0% in 2015.

BMI Political View

Political and economic ties between Vietnam and Japan look set to strengthen further over the coming years, as both countries seek to forge a strategic partnership to counterbalance China's growing assertiveness in the region.

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
26
Patented Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
28
Generic Drug Market Forecast
29
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
30
OTC Medicine Forecast
31
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2011-2019)
33
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
34
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2013-2019)
35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Vietnam 2013-2019)
36
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Economic Analysis
37
Table: Economic Activity (Vietnam 2010-2019)
40
Industry Risk Reward Index
41
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Index
41
Vietnam Risk Reward Index
47
Rewards
47
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Industry Trends And Developments
51
Epidemiology
51
Healthcare Sector
53
Hospital Sector
56
Table: Healthcare Resources (Vietnam 2009-2014)
56
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Vietnam 2009-2014)
56
Table: Healthcare Activity (Vietnam 2009-2014)
57
Private Healthcare Sector
59
Healthcare Insurance
60
Healthcare And Pharmaceutical Reform
61
Research And Development
62
Biotechnology Sector
63
Clinical Trials
66
Regulatory Development
69
Pharmaceutical Advertising
70
Intellectual Property Issues
71
Corruption
74
Pricing Regime
75
Reimbursement Regime
80
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
81
Competitive Landscape
83
Research-Based Industry
83
Domestic Industry
84
Foreign Industry
85
Traditional Medicines
86
Pharmaceutical Distribution
87
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
88
Table: Key Aspects Of Good Pharmacy Practice In Developing Countries
89
Company Profile
90
DHG Pharmaceutical
90
GlaxoSmithKline
93
Merck & Co
95
Novartis
97
Pfizer
99
Sanofi
101
Traphaco Pharmaceutical
104
Vietnam OPV Pharmaceutical Co
106
Vietnam Pharmaceutical Corporation (Vinapharm)
108
Vietnam Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company (Ampharco)
111
Vidipha Central Pharmaceutical Joint Stock Company
113
Demographic Forecast
115
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Vietnam 1990-2025)
116
Table: Key Population Ratios (Vietnam 1990-2025)
116
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Vietnam 1990-2025)
117
Table: Population By Age Group (Vietnam 1990-2025)
117
Table: Population By Age Group % (Vietnam 1990-2025)
118
Glossary
120
Methodology
122
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
122
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
122
Notes On Methodology
123
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
124
Index Overview
125
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
125
Indicator Weightings
126

The Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnam pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Vietnam, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.