BMI Vi ew: Vietnam's goal of having the majority of its pharmaceutical demand be met by local firms will shape the country's medicine market. While domestic healthcare needs are a factor underpinning this approach, there is also an economic aspect involved, with the government keen to establish Vietnam as an exporter of vaccines in the region. This has strong implications for multinational pharmaceutical firms operating in the country, and it accentuates the need to invest in a long-term partnership with domestic drugmakers to capture the commercial opportunities in the country.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: VND92.5trn (USD4.2bn) in 2015 to VND105.6trn (USD4.7bn) in 2016; +14.2% in local currency terms and +12.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast virtually unchanged compared to the last quarter.
Healthcare: VND304.3trn (USD13.9bn) in 2015 to VND333.6bn (USD14.9bn) in 2016; +9.6% in local currency terms and +7.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast virtually unchanged compared to the last quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||3.808||4.219||4.728||5.291||5.872||6.527||7.216|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.05||2.21||2.32||2.38||2.40||2.42||2.42|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||29.0||30.4||31.7||32.7||33.5||34.1||34.5|
|Health spending, USDbn||13.127||13.883||14.930||16.178||17.510||19.123||20.921|
Risk/ Reward Index
In Q117 Vietnam's Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index score remains unchanged at 48.3 out of a maximum of 100. Vietnam remains ranked 13th out of 20 countries monitored in the Asia Pacific region in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors. Vietnam's score is driven by a relatively large market size (scoring 12.0 for this index component, above the regional average of 10.1) and robust sector value growth (scoring 9.6, above the regional average of 6.7), but is dragged down by low spending per capita on medicine (scoring 2.4, against the regional average of 3.8) and subdued patent respect (scoring 2.8, against the regional average of 3.3).
In August 2016, Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam asked health sector officials to inspect the social insurance fund and penalise those taking undue advantage of it. The social insurance fund, which in the first half of 2016 reached VND28.2trn (USD1.3bn), is at risk of overspending due to a 12% increase in the number of people buying health insurance, the application of equal health service prices and some people with health insurance cards taking advantage of the fund (such as reselling prescription medicines).
In September 2016, a pilot programme on national hospital quality assessment resulted in positive results, but a gap between policy objectives and operations still exists, according to hospital officials. The quality assessment results will be publicised to motivate hospitals to improve quality, with current gaps reflecting overcrowding and slow advance in professional techniques uptake.
Vietnam's government announced in November 2016 that a locally manufactured measles-rubella vaccine will be used in the National Expanded Programme on Immunisation from 2017. Produced by the Ministry of Health's Centre for Research and Production of Vaccines (POLYVAC), the vaccine was developed under a technology-transfer project funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, which financed the cost of development, valued at USD6.7mn.
BMI Economic View
We believe that the government's decision to stop acting as a guarantor for state-owned enterprises' loans will be an overall positive for Vietnam despite potential short-term disruptions to infrastructure projects and increases in insolvency of state firms. The move will help to improve fiscal sustainability and resource allocation, which should bode well for Vietnam's economic growth.
BMI Political View
Vietnam's move to expand military facilities in the South China Sea amid uncertainty regarding Washington's foreign policy stance was prompted by two factors. It is likely that Hanoi wants to reassert its sovereignty given the Philippines' recent 'defection' to the Chinese camp, as well as to measure Washington's response in view of improved bilateral relations and changing dynamics in the region.
The Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Vietnam Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnam pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Vietnam, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Vietnam.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.