BMI View: Our forecasts from the previous quarter remain in place; and we expect the port of Ho Chi Minh City to lead the way in terms of tonnage throughput handled in 2015. The port of Da Nang, however, is expected to outperform the larger Ho Chi Minh City port in terms of box sphere growth (10% compared to 8% respectively).
In terms of the wider economy, we expect strong foreign direct investment (FDI), healthy export growth and ongoing efforts by the government to improve macroeconomic fundamentals to keep the Vietnamese economy growing strongly. This will all bode well for the Vietnamese shipping industry going forward. Real GDP growth is set to accelerate to 6.4% in 2015, from 6.0% in 2014.
The potential for political tensions to flare up once again could arise from Vietnam's formal submission of its political stance on the South China Sea dispute to the international arbitration court at the United Nations on December 12 2014. Through the submission, the Vietnamese government is seeking the help of the international arbitration court to safeguard its sovereign rights and interests in the disputed sea. The submission also challenges Beijing's 'nine-dash line' claim that places most parts of the South China Sea under Chinese jurisdiction, and supports the arbitration case that the Philippines has filed on January 22 2013 in relation to its own maritime dispute with China in the disputed waters.
Headline Industry Data
2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to grow 7.6% to 45.06mn tonnes.
2015 tonnage throughput at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 6.5% to 5.70mn tonnes.
2015 container throughput at the port of Ho Chi Minh City is forecast to rise 8.0% to 4.99mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).
2015 container throughput at the port of Da Nang is forecast to increase 10.00% to 206,320TEUs.
2015 total trade real growth is forecast to increase 6.65%.
Key Industry Trends
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The Vietnam Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Vietnam.
BMI's Vietnam Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Vietnam.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Vietnamese shipping market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.