West Africa Mining Report

Published 06 August 2015

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$1,295.00
West Africa Mining Report

BMI View: Over the coming quarters West Africa's growth outlook will be held down by c ontinued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak . T he region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

  • Cote d'Ivoire - Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will experience solid growth due to new projects and low production cash costs. Cote d'Ivoire's main driver of gold output growth will be Endavour Mining's Agabou gold project. The mine produced 90koz in 2014, and we expect output to reach 400koz by 2019, accounting for roughly half of the country's gold output. However, growth could be significantly improved if the country's political instability and inadequate infrastructure is resolved.

  • Guinea - Guinea is home to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits. Nevertheless, we expect the country's iron ore production growth to slow due to weak iron ore prices, inadequate infrastructure, political instability and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak. Besides iron ore, we expect solid bauxite production growth due to the country's incremental output from new projects coming online coupled with current operations.

  • Liberia - Although Liberia hold vast iron ore reserves and the country retains a relatively stable business environment, we expect production growth will slow over the coming quarters. Both the collapse in iron ore prices and the Ebola outbreak have radically changed Liberia's operating environment by slashing mining companies' revenue, limiting financing options, forcing the evacuation of workers and disrupting supply chains. Beforehand, projects owned by ArcelorMittal, Vedanta and Tawana Minerals, were set to significantly increase the country's iron ore output. However, we believe these projects will be significantly delayed or shelved altogether over the coming years.

  • ...
BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Guinea Bauxite: Solid Growth Lies Ahead
11
Latest Developments
11
Structural Trends
12
Table: Guinea - New Projects
13
Political Risks To Outlook
15
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production & Growth
16
Guinea Iron Ore: Growth To Remain Positive
16
Latest Developments
16
Structural Trends
17
Table: Guinea - New Iron Ore Projects
19
Positive Outlook For Simandou
20
Risk To Outlook
21
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production & Growth
22
Iron Ore - Short-Term Headwinds, Though Long-Term Growth Potential
22
Latest Developments
22
Structural Trends
23
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production & Growth
25
Mauritania: Modest Growth, Despite Headwinds
25
Latest Developments
25
Structural Trends
26
Price Weakness To Subdue Investment Outlook
27
Table: Mauritania - New Iron Ore Mining Projects
29
Infrastructure Weakness To Dampen Growth Outlook
29
Table: Mauritania - Mine Production & Growth
30
Ghana Gold: Price Weakness To Subdue Growth
30
Latest Developments
30
Structural Trends
31
Government Shows No Sign of Easing Taxes
34
Table: Ghana - Gold Production & Growth
36
C-te d'Ivoire Gold: New Projects To Support Growth
36
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects
39
Table: Cote d'Ivoire - Gold Production Forecast
39
Liberia Iron Ore: Headwinds To Pressure Growth
40
Latest Developments
40
Structural Trends
41
Business Environment To Remain Relatively Stable
43
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Project Pipeline
43
Infrastructure Weakness To Remain
44
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Production Forecast & Growth
44
Mali Gold: Output To Decline
44
Latest Developments
44
Table: Mali - Gold Production & Growth
47
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
48
Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
48
Rewards
48
Industry Rewards
48
Country Rewards
48
Risks
49
Industry Risks
49
Country Risks
49
Table: Guinea - Mine Production Forecast
50
Liberia Risk/Reward Index
50
Rewards
50
Industry Rewards
50
Country Rewards
50
Risks
50
Industry Risks
50
Country Risks
51
Africa: Headwinds To Slow Growth
51
Key Takeaways:
51
Latest Revisions:
52
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
53
Regulatory Development
54
Latest Developments
54
Table: Africa Regulatory Outlook
54
Commodities Forecast
56
Commodity Strategy
56
Ferrous Metals
56
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
56
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
58
Non-Ferrous Metals
61
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
61
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
63
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
64
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
65
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
66
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
68
Competitive Landscape
69
Table: West Africa: Key Mining Companies' Financial Metrics
70
Structural Trends:
70
Company Profile
71
Global Company Strategy - Rio Tinto - Q4 2015
71
Company Overview
73
Company Strategy
74
Latest Financial Results
75
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
77
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q4 2015
78
Overview
79
Strategy
79
Risks
80
Latest Results
81
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
82
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2015
83
Latest Financial Results
87
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data
88
Regional Overview
89
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
89
Key Themes
89
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright
89
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
90
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
91
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
92
Global Industry Overview
94
Global Mining: 2015 Key Themes Revisited
94
Table: Key Mining Themes For 2015
94
Theme: Mining Capital Expenditure Will Continue To Decline
94
Theme: US Dollar Strength
95
Iron Ore Consolidation & Majors Share To Increase
96
Asian Investment In Africa To Continue
97
2015's Standouts
98
Methodology
100
Industry Forecast Methodology
100
Sources
101
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
102
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
103

The West Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's West Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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