West Africa Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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West Africa Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will weaken on the back of c ontinued mineral price weakness, inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters. T he region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f= BMI estimate/forecast. Source= National Sources, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 3.32 3.38 3.45 3.35 3.32 3.29
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 1.30 1.90 2.00 -2.87 -1.07 -0.79
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 1.44 1.44 1.48 1.60 1.74 1.86
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -0.39 -0.07 3.09 8.15 8.51 6.64
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.26 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.24
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 5.20 -15.47 -9.44 6.25 6.70 6.02
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.80 0.73 0.68 0.65 0.65 0.65
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -5.70 -9.24 -6.49 -4.46 -0.90 1.40
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 0.69 0.57 0.52 0.53 0.56 0.59
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -17.22 -17.04 -9.56 1.73 5.53 5.81
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 1.04 0.82 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.80
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y 6.35 -20.65 -8.33 1.90 2.00 2.10

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Guinea is home to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits. Nevertheless, we expect the country's iron ore production growth to slow due to weak iron ore prices, inadequate infrastructure, political instability and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak. Besides iron ore, we expect solid bauxite production growth due to the country's incremental output from new projects coming online coupled with current operations. Recent violence in the Forest region illustrates how Guinea remains politically fragile, and politicians must refrain from campaigning along ethnic lines if they are to not throw a spark onto the tinderbox. We expect that widespread hostilities will be averted in the run-up to October 11 elections, and that incumbent Alpha Conde will be returned for a second presidential term.

  • We have revised down our Mauritania gold production forecast down from 1.2% to -3.5% and 1.1% to -1.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Weak gold prices will continue to hurt miners' profit margins, resulting in retrenchment and scaling back of operations over the coming quarters. Furthermore, low iron ore prices will force miners to halt new projects from coming online. Additionally, the country's inadequate infrastructure will prevent the sector from reaching its full growth potential.

  • On June 17, 2015, Ghana's Chamber of Mines announced that the country's gold mining revenue declined by 17.4% y-o-y in 2014 to USD3.8bn. This supports our view that continued gold price weakness will force major players to cut costs and scale back operations. We forecast gold prices to average USD1,120/oz during 2015-2019, significantly lower than USD1,427/oz average during 2010-2014.

  • Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will experience solid growth due to new projects and low production cash costs. We have revised our gold production growth forecast up from 18.0% to 30.0% and from 10.0% to 14.0% for 2015 and 2016, respectively. Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will grow from 630koz in 2014 to 830koz in 2015, totalling 940koz in 2016. This supports our view that the country's gold production growth will remain strong on the back of a strong project pipeline and low production costs.

  • Although Liberia hold vast iron ore reserves and the country retains a relatively stable business environment, we expect production growth will slow over the coming quarters. Liberia appears on course to be declared Ebola free by the World Health Organization (WHO) once more. Despite the disease's retreat, Liberia's economic woes as a result of the outbreak are far from over. We forecast that Liberia will post real GDP growth of 1.2% in 2015, rising to 4.2% in 2016. This is a far cry from the 10-year average of 8.9% registered between 2004 and 2013 ( see: 'Post-Ebola Recovery Will Take Time' , August 28).

  • Mali's gold production growth will contract over the coming years as weak gold prices will force miners to cut capital expenditure and limit new projects from coming online. We expect significant knock-on effects for the wider economy as the country's gold sector accounts for 70% of export revenue and 7% of real GDP. For instance, AngloGold Ashanti halted production permanently at the company's Yatela mine in Q314. AngloGold suspended excavation at Yatela last year, citing lower gold prices and higher operating costs.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Select Countries - Mining Industry Forecast
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Guinea Bauxite: Set For Solid Growth
11
Latest Developments
11
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production & Growth
11
Structural Trends
11
Table: Guinea - New Projects
12
Political Risks To Outlook
14
Guinea Iron Ore: Modest Growth Ahead
14
Latest Developments
15
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production & Growth
15
Structural Trends
15
Table: Guinea - New Iron Ore Projects
17
Risk To Outlook
19
Sierra Leone: Growth To Recover In The Long Term
20
Latest Developments
20
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production & Growth
20
Structural Trends
21
Mauritania: Gold To Contract, Iron Ore To Be Weak
22
Latest Developments
23
Table: Mauritania - Mine Production & Growth
23
Structural Trends
23
Price Weakness To Subdue Investment Outlook
25
Table: Mauritania - New Iron Ore Mining Projects
26
Infrastructure Weakness To Dampen Growth Outlook
27
Ghana Gold: Price Weakness To Subdue Growth
28
Latest Developments
28
Table: Ghana - Gold Production & Growth
28
Structural Trends
28
Government Shows No Sign of Easing Taxes
31
C-te d'Ivoire Gold: New Projects To Support Growth
33
Latest Developments
33
Table: Cote d'Ivoire - Gold Production Forecast
34
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects
34
Structural Trends
34
Liberia Iron Ore: Weak Prices To Dent Growth
38
Latest Developments
38
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Production Forecast & Growth
38
Structural Trends
38
Business Environment To Remain Relatively Stable
41
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Project Pipeline
41
Mali Gold: Output To Decline
42
Latest Developments
42
Table: Mali - Gold Production Forecast
42
Structural Trends
43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Industry Rewards
45
Country Rewards
45
Risks
45
Industry Risks
45
Country Risks
45
Liberia Risk/Reward Index
46
Rewards
46
Industry Rewards
46
Country Rewards
46
Risks
46
Industry Risks
46
Country Risks
46
Africa: Major Risks Remain
47
Key Takeaways
47
Latest Revisions
48
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
49
Regulatory Development
50
Table: Africa Regulatory Outlook
50
Commodities Forecast
52
Commodities Outlook
52
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
52
Competitive Landscape
53
Table: West Africa: Key Mining Companies' Financial Metrics
54
Structural Trends:
54
Company Profile
55
Global Company Strategy - Randgold Resources - Q4 2015
55
Latest Financial Results
59
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data
60
Global Company Strategy - AngloGold Ashanti - Q1 2016
61
Overview
62
Strategy
62
Risks
63
Latest Results
64
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
65
Regional Overview
66
Africa Mining: The Four Key Themes
66
Key Themes
66
Chinese Investment To Continue
66
Iron Ore Price Weakness To Curb Growth
67
Regulatory Uncertainty To Curb Growth
68
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
74

The West Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's West Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.