West Africa Mining Report

Published 30 April 2015

  • 115 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
West Africa Mining Report

BMI View: West Africa's growth outlook will be dented by c ontinued mineral price weakness, countries' inadequate infrastructure and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak over the coming quarters . Miners operating within the region will suffer from declining profit margins and increasing difficulties in obtaining finance . However, the region's long-term growth outlook remains promising due to countries' vast untapped mineral reserves, positive foreign investment outlook and infrastructure developments.

Cote d'Ivoire - Cote d'Ivoire's gold production will experience solid growth due to new projects and low production cash costs. Cote d'Ivoire's main driver of gold output growth will be Endavour Mining's Agabou gold project. The mine produced 90koz in 2014, and we expect output to reach 400koz by 2019, accounting for roughly half of the country's gold output. However, growth could be significantly improved if the country's political instability and inadequate infrastructure is resolved.

Guinea - Guinea is home to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits. Nevertheless, we expect the country's iron ore production growth to slow due to weak iron ore prices, inadequate infrastructure, political instability and the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak. Besides iron ore, we expect solid bauxite production growth due to the country's incremental output from new projects coming online coupled with current operations.

Subdued Growth Ahead
Select Countries - Iron Ore Production Growth y-o-y (%)

Liberia - Although Liberia hold vast iron ore reserves and the country retains a relatively stable business environment, we expect production growth will slow over the coming quarters. Both the collapse in iron ore prices and the Ebola outbreak have radically changed Liberia's operating environment by slashing mining companies' revenue, limiting financing options, forcing the evacuation of workers and disrupting supply chains. Beforehand, projects owned by ArcelorMittal,...

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Select Countries - Mine Production (2014-2019)
10
SWOT
11
Industry Forecast
13
Guinea Bauxite: Robust growth Ahead
13
Table: Guinea - New Projects
14
Political Risks To Outlook
16
Table: Guinea - Bauxite Production & Growth
17
Guinea Iron Ore: Gradual Growth Lies Ahead
17
Table: Guinea - New Iron Ore Projects
20
Positive Outlook For Simandou
21
Risk To Outlook
22
Table: Guinea - Iron Ore Production & Growth
23
Sierra Leone Iron Ore: Short-Term Collapse, Yet Long-Term Growth Ahead
23
Table: Sierra Leone - Iron Ore Production & Growth
27
Mauritania: Price Weakness To Subdue Growth
27
Price Weakness To Subdue Investment Outlook
29
Table: Mauritania - New Iron Ore Mining Projects
31
Infrastructure Weakness To Dampen Growth Outlook
31
Table: Mauritania - Mine Production & Growth
32
Ghana Gold: Significant Headwinds Lie Ahead
32
Government Shows No Sign of Easing Taxes
35
Table: Ghana - Gold Production & Growth
37
C-te d'Ivoire Gold: Solid Growth Outlook, But Challenges Remain
37
Table: C-te d'Ivoire - Largest Gold Projects
40
Table: Cote d'Ivoire - Gold Production Forecast
40
Liberia Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Curb Growth
41
Business Environment To Remain Relatively Stable
43
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Project Pipeline
44
Infrastructure Weakness To Remain
44
Table: Liberia - Iron Ore Production Forecast & Growth
45
Mali Gold: Growth To Stagnate
45
Table: Mali - Gold Production & Growth
48
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
49
Guinea Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Industry Rewards
49
Country Rewards
49
Risks
50
Industry Risks
50
Country Risks
50
Table: Guinea - Mine Production & % Growth
51
Liberia Risk/Reward Index
51
Rewards
51
Industry Rewards
51
Country Rewards
51
Risks
52
Industry Risks
52
Country Risks
52
Table: Liberia Mine Production Forecasts
53
Africa Risk/Reward Index
53
High Risks, Large Rewards
53
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
56
Regulatory Development
57
Positive Developments
57
Negative Developments
57
Neutral
58
Table: Africa Regulatory Outlook
59
Commodities Forecast
61
Commodity Strategy
61
Ferrous Metals
61
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
61
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
63
Non-Ferrous Metals
66
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
66
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
68
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
69
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
70
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
71
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
72
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
74
Competitive Landscape
75
Table: West Africa: Key Mining Companies' Financial Metrics
76
Company Profile
77
Rio Tinto
77
Company Overview
79
Company Strategy
80
Latest Financial Results
81
Table: Rio Tinto - Key Financial Data
83
Randgold Resources
84
Latest Financial Results
88
Table: Randgold Resources - Key Financial Data
89
AngloGold Ashanti
90
Overview
91
Strategy
91
Risks
92
Latest Results
93
Table: AngloGold Ashanti - Key Financial Data
94
Regional Overview
95
Regional Overview - The Four Key Themes For Africa Mining
95
SSA Gold: Stagnation, But DRC To Shine Bright
95
West Africa: Continued Price Weakness To Curb Growth
96
Regulatory Environment To Threaten Growth
98
Mining To Remain Key Contributor To GDP
99
Global Industry Overview
101
Global Overview
101
Major Challenges Ahead
101
Table: Select Countries - Recent And Planned Tax Increases And Other Government Plans
105
Despite Challenges, Bright Spots Remain
105
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sources
112
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
113
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
114

The West Africa Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's West Africa Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Ghana, Cote d`Ivoire, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Mali, Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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