Industry sales data from Renault showed that new vehicle sales in November 2014 declined 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 453 units, bringing sales for the first 11 months of 2014 to 4,973 units, a decrease of 1.7% y-o-y. Our forecasts for 2014 proved too optimistic in light of the poor sales in the past few months and as such we have downgraded our full-year sales estimate to 5,464 units, a contraction of 1.0%.
We believe auto sales in 2014 were affected by the depreciation in the Zambian kwacha in H114, which resulted in an increase in car prices for consumers given that the bulk of the cars sold in the local market are imported. However, we expect a recovery in the auto market in 2015 as economic growth accelerates.
We expect private consumption to be a key driver of growth in 2015 and 2016, forecasting 6.5% growth in both years. This will be boosted by good harvests in the agricultural sector and with this being the case, we could see some of this income being re-invested in new commercial vehicles.
The growth of vehicle financing and leasing in Zambia means it is becoming possible for more new car brands, even from higher price points, to access the market. As Nissan Motor doubles down on its efforts to increase its presence in the country and Volkswagen arrives with a new showroom, the availability of various forms of financing will support growth in the nascent new car segment.
Some carmakers feel that more can be done to promote the new vehicle segment in African markets such as Zambia, where second-hand sales still account for the bulk of the market. Renault, which is due to launch its brand in Zambia in January 2015 hopes to convince governments in the region that the second-hand market takes away state revenues and should be regulated.
Renault has reached an agreement with local firm F-One Hazida Limited for the distribution of its products in Zambia. It will initially start out with three models - the Duster, Fluence and Koleos - and will start with 'tens...
The Zambia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
BMI Research's Zambia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Zambia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.
BMI’s Autos Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
The Autos reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks and multinational companies.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.