Zambia Food & Drink Report

Published 27 July 2015

  • 53 pages
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$1,295.00
Zambia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region. That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With t he World Bank expecting little improvement in the global commodities market through much of 2015, this will also continue to weigh on the Zambian economy.

Key Forecasts

  • Total food consumption growth (local currency) in 2015: 9.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 2014 to 2019: 10.0%

  • Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales growth (local currency) in 2015: 13.6%; CAGR to 2019: 13.4%

Consumer Outlook

Despite low copper prices, we anticipate real GDP growth of 6.0% in Zambia in 2015, from an estimated 6.0% in 2014. Private and government consumption will remain the key drivers of growth, with resilient domestic demand helping to offset weaknesses in the export sector. Growth will also be supported by a stable inflationary environment.

Although President Edgar Lungu was elected only in January, Zambia is set to return to the polls once more in 2016, as the presidential term cycle was interrupted by the death of President Michael Sata in office. Given the fact that Lungu won narrowly in January, the poor economic performance of the country at present and policy uncertainty, we believe that he will struggle to be re-elected next year ( see 'Lower Mining Tax Will Fuel Public Discontent', April 24). As a result, we do not expect that recurrent spending will be targeted, as the government will be looking to hang onto votes - a goal that would be undermined if cuts were made to social spending and public sector wages. Rather, we think that capital investment will be targeted...

BMI Industry View
5
Industry Forecast
8
Food
8
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2019)
9
Mass Grocery Retail
10
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2019)
10
Macroeconomic Forecast
11
Economic Analysis
11
Table: Economic Activity (Zambia 2010-2019)
13
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
14
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q315
15
Market Overview
18
Regional Market Overview
18
Global Industry Overview
22
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q115 Roundup
29
Demographic Forecast
31
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025)
32
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025)
32
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025)
33
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025)
33
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025)
34
Glossary
36
Food & Drink
36
Mass Grocery Retail
36
Methodology
38
Industry Forecast Methodology
38
Sector-Specific Methodology
39
Sources
39
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
40
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
41
Table: Weighting
42

The Zambia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Zambia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Zambia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zambia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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