Zambia Food & Drink Report

Published 30 January 2015

  • 46 pages
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Zambia Food & Drink Report

BMI View: We maintain an optimistic outlook for the country's food and drink industry over our forecast period. With expectations for strong economic growth, a favourable demographic profile and a gradually emerging middle class, Zambia remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in the region. That said, short-term challenges remain, including continued pressures on an already ailing Zambian kwacha and the prospect of industrial unrest within the public sector workforce. With the World Bank expecting little, if any, improvement in the global commodities market through much of 2015, this will also continue to weigh on the Zambian economy.

Key Forecasts

  • Total food consumption growth (local currency) in 2015: 9.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR), 2014 to 2019: 10.0%

  • Mass grocery retail sales growth (local currency) in 2015: 13.6%; CAGR to 2019: 13.4%

Consumer Outlook

Fuelled by significant investments in the mining industry and associated increases in export volumes, Zambia's real GDP is projected to grow by 7.0% in 2015 (up from an estimated 6.5% in 2014). Strong economic performance will drive private consumption in the medium term, forming a solid basis for growth in all consumer industries, especially food, drink and mass grocery retail (MGR).

Private consumption is likely to remain constrained in the short term following the recent removal of government subsidies for fuel and maize. BMI believes that the removal of subsidies will result in price growth across the board, thus putting downward pressure on private consumption as household purchasing power diminishes.

Demographics will remain favourable for the expansion of the food, drink and MGR sectors. Zambia has an estimated population of 14.1mn and this is projected to increase to 16.6mn over the forecast period. This will result in a significant increase in the youth population, which is vital for the industry.

Key Industry Developments

Opportunity I n Zambia Beer Despite Tax...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Zambia - Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2018)
Zambia - Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Zambia 2009-2018)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Q115
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Index, Q115 (scores out of 10)
Market Overview
Southern Africa Market Overview
Global Industry Overview
Table: Dollar General And Family Dollar Historic Quarterly Same-Store Sales Growth (% Change Y-O-Y)
Table: Selected US And Global Spirits Companies - Historical Financial Indicators
Table: Select US Beverage Companies - Historic Eva Spread
Table: Food and Drink Team's Core Views
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025)
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting

The Zambia Food & Drink Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Zambia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Zambia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zambia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the mass grocery retail market.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Food and Drink Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Food Forecasts

BMI’s food chapter is divided into sections such as meat, fish, confectionary, dairy and canned foods, and provides insight into each market’s food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

  • Industry Forecast Scenario: Historical data series and a forecast to end-2019 for growth of key indicators within a market’s food industry. Indicators include food consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
  • Industry Developments: A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
  • Market Overview: An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food chapter, the drink section provides insight into each market’s drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI’s food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into each market’s grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-2019 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown of the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the mass grocery retail and food and drink industries via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. This chapter also includes data-rich, in-depth regional analysis of the market position, business strategies and investment potential of the region’s leading mass grocery retail and food and drink operators.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


The Food & Drink reports draw on an extensive network primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc