Zambia Infrastructure Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Zambia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We expect growth in Zambia's construction sector to remain positive over our ten-year forecast period to 2024, on the back of continued investment in transport and energy projects. However, growth will moderate over our forecast period as a symptom of overspending by the government over recent years and an uncertain environment for the crucial mining sector leading to lower capital expenditure.

On the one hand the government has moved to improve Zambia's construction sector, through tough action in the industry and wider economy to address corruption, which is likely to create a more transparent sector over the longer term. Following the inauguration of President Edgar Lungu, expectations are plans under this agenda are set to continue.

However, overspending in recent years and falling copper prices will severely restrict the government's ability to invest in the infrastructure sector. Spending cuts are likely to fall on capital spending rather than current in the run up to the 2016 elections, and uncertainty over mining tax policy will likely limit investment in that sector. Altogether, the Zambian infrastructure sector looks set to see less investment than it has received in recent years.

Key Trends And Developments

  • New Zambian President Edgar Lungu was sworn into office in January 2015. He is part of the same party as his predecessor, Michael Sata, and is expected to continue with his anti-corruption stance. However, elections in 2016 are a threat to policy continuity as resentment towards the incumbent government's tax policies in the mining sector.

  • In January 2015, South African shipping and freight logistics company Grindrod Limited awarded USD500mn to the Zambian government to enable it to carry out the first phase of construction of the USD1bn North West Rail project. The 580km railway will connect Zambia and Angola. The first phase of the line, running for 290km, is estimated to cost USD489mn and will be built through Kansanshi,...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2013-2018)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2019-2024)
10
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
18
Table: Mozambique Transport Corridors
21
Major Projects Table - Transport
27
Table: Planned And Ongoing Transport Projects, Southern Africa
27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
33
Table: SAPP Members
43
Major Projects - Energy & Utilities
47
Table: Planned And Ongoing Energy & Utilities Projects, Southern Africa
47
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
54
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
62
Table: Major Projects - Social Infrastructure & Construction
62
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
64
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index
64
Rewards
64
Risks
65
SSA Infrastructure Challenged By Global Headwinds
66
Table: Election Timetable, April-December 2015
72
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa's Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, Q315
73
Market Overview
74
Competitive Landscape
74
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (excluding South Africa)
74
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (by region & including South Africa)
75
Pulling On Historic Ties
76
China Trade Off, Other Asian Countries Follow Suit
77
South Africans Expanding Into Their Backyard
79
Global Infrastructure Overview
81
Project Risk Index: Robust Financing Establishes Outperformer Status
81
Table: Project Risk Index - Top 10 Markets
81
Table: Project Risk Index - Financing Risk, SSA Top 5
82
Table: Project Risk Index - Construction Risk, Asia-Pacific Top 5
83
Table: Project Risk Index - Operation Risk, Developed Markets Top 5
84
Methodology
85
Industry Forecast Methodology
85
Sector-Specific Methodology
86
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
90
Sector-Specific Methodology
91
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
91
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
92

The Zambia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Zambia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%