Zambia Infrastructure Report

Published 09 February 2015

  • 97 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: Our outlook for 2015 indicates continued stable growth of the Zambian economy of 6-7% as a whole and a strong growth of about 15% for the infrastructure and construction sector. Long-term trends depict a similar stable growth as anti-corruption projects and development agendas continue to improve overall conditions in the country. Crucial for the success of these policies will be an improved revenue flow and funds entering the country.

The construction sector is being targeted under the broader reform agenda of the Patriotic Front government, and while substantial progress has been made, there is still much room for improvement. Change has been particularly evident in the construction sector, including management changes at Zesco, the road development agency, a freeze on construction to ensure proper permitting processes and the seizure of the national railway. Tough action in the industry is likely to create a more transparent sector over the longer term. Following the inauguration of President Edgar Lungu, expectations are that plans under this agenda are set to continue.

One important impact of the reform agenda has been an uptick in development funding, providing financial support to a number of crucial projects in the power sector. About 90% of Zambia's first successful Eurobond issue is expected to be used for road, rail and energy infrastructure projects. These funds are highly needed as drops ins natural resource prices including copper are putting pressure on the economy.

Key Trends And Developments

  • New Zambian President Edgar Lungu was sworn into office in January 2015. He is part of the same party as his predecessor, Michael Sata.

  • In January 2015, South African shipping and freight logistics company Grindrod Limited awarded USD500mn to the Zambian government to enable it to carry out the first phase of construction of the USD1bn North West Rail project. The 580km railway will connect Zambia and Angola. The first phase of the line,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Infrastructure SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2012-2017)
11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2018-2023)
11
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
18
Table: Mozambique Transport Corridors
20
Major Projects Table - Transport
24
Table: Planned And Ongoing Transport Projects, Southern Africa
24
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
30
Table: SAPP Members
37
Major Projects - Energy & Utilities
39
Table: Planned And Ongoing Energy & Utilities Projects, Southern Africa
39
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
46
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
53
Table: Major Projects - Social Infrastructure & Construction
53
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
56
Zambia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Rewards
56
Risks
56
Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk/Reward Ratings
58
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
67
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (excluding South Africa)
68
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (by region & including South Africa)
69
Pulling On Historic Ties
70
China Trade Off, Other Asian Countries Follow Suit
71
South Africans Expanding Into Their Backyard
74
Global Infrastructure Overview
75
Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile
75
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sector-Specific Methodology
82
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
88

The Zambia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Zambia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc