Zambia Infrastructure Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Infrastructure industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, BMI Industry Forecast, BMI's Infrastructure Risk Reward Index, Market Overview and Company Profiles.

Why you should buy this report

  • Gain independent insight into the outlook for the infrastructure industry through BMI's 10 year forecasts
  • Understand the market through analysis of projects , investment plans and key players
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks

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Zambia Infrastructure Report
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BMI View: The Zambian construction industry will slow in 2016 after f our consecutive years of double- digit growth as public spending an d investment in the mining sector are cut on the back of lower commodity prices. We expect a more moderate, yet healthy, expansion over our 10-year forecast to 2025, driven by continued investment into transport and energy projects.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Cutbacks in Zambia's crucial mining sector and in public spending will see real growth slow to 6.0% in 2016, down from 10.1% in 2015.

  • Overspending and falling copper prices have restricted the government's current ability to invest in infrastructure and we expect capital spending to be cut more drastically in the run-up to the 2016 elections in August.

  • In September 2015 Glencore announced it would immediately suspend its Mopani copper mining operation for 18 months. This will hurt copper output as the mine accounted for 15% of Zambia's total copper production in 2014.

  • We expect Hakainde Hichilema to win the 2016 presidential election as high levels of inflation and unemployment rally voters behind the opposition candidate. His pro-business policies could attract more investment in the country and provide upside potential to our post-2016 forecasts.

Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Zambia 2015-2025)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: Central Statistical Office, BMI
Construction industry value, ZMWbn 28.69 35.86 42.84 49.54 56.39 63.01 70.34 78.48 88.16 99.07 112.38
Construction Industry Value, Real Growth, % y-o-y 10.10 5.95 5.46 5.65 5.82 4.73 4.64 4.57 5.33 5.38 6.43
Construction Industry Value, % of GDP 16.1 18.5 20.1 21.0 21.5 21.7 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.0 21.9

Risk/Reward Index

  • Zambia is currently in 6th place in BMI's Sub-Saharan Africa Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, due to its strong growth outlook.

  • Overall, the long-term trends suggest the business environment is improving due to former President Michael Sata's anti-corruption drive and could improve further with the election of opposition candidate Hakainde Hichilema in this year's elections.

Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Zambia)
Risk/Reward Index Rewards Industry Rewards Country Rewards Risks Industry Risks Country Risks
Scores out of 100, with 100 the best. Source: BMI
44.7 45.4 52.5 32.1 43.0 40.0 45.0
BMI Industry View
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Zambia 2015-2021)
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Zambia 2016-2016)
Infrastructure SWOT
Industry Forecast
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2015-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Zambia Risk/Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index - Stabilisation, But Tough Year In 2016
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, Q216
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

The Zambia Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Zambia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zambian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.


The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.