BMI View: Zambia's budget deficit will increase in 2016 thanks to another fall in copper production and the Zambian kwacha will continue its trend of depreciation on the basis of a weak copper industry outlook. Private and government consumption will remain the key drivers of growth, with resilient domestic demand helping to offset weaknesses in the export sector. Growth will also be supported by a stable inflationary environment.
Headline Expenditure Forecast
Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.48bn (USD241mn) in 2014 to ZMW1.67bn (USD182mn) in 2015; +12.7% in local currency terms and -24.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms decreased compared to the previous quarter.
Healthcare: ZMW8.32bn (USD1.35bn) in 2014 to ZMW9.18bn (USD1.0bn) in 2015; +10.4% in local currency terms and -26.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast decreased compared to the previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.225||0.241||0.182||0.152||0.161||0.171||0.182|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.86||0.95||1.24||1.01||1.02||1.02||1.03|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||16.6||17.9||18.2||18.7||18.9||19.0||19.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.352||1.350||0.999||0.814||0.850||0.897||0.946|
Zambia has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 26.3out of 100, making it the 27th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region in Q116. This represents a downgrade by three positions since the last quarter.
Key Trends & Developments
Zambia's National AIDS Council (NAC) has warned that it cannot efficiently coordinate its activities due to a reduction in external donor support. According to NAC communications manager Justice Mwiinga, donors are moving to other areas of interest. On July 21, a workshop was held for members of parliamentary committees on health, community development and social services to encourage health sector funding through local budget allocations and the development of strategies for sustainable financing in the country.
The Pharmaceutical Society of Zambia has demanded that the task of sourcing all drugs and medical supplies for all public institutions in the country to be handed back to the government medical distributor Medical Stores Limited (MSL). The Ministry of Health has continued to make these procurements centrally through its procurement unit contrary to the new policy directive of Health Minister Joseph Kasonde. According to the society's President Liyoka Liyoka, the move is crucial to strategic management, transparency and accountability in the supply of medicines in the country and expressed disappointment that the ministry continues to hold on to the procurement unit.
Hospitals and clinics in Zambia are running the risk of depleting their stocks of medication in 2016, potentially leading to many people starting to purchase their own drugs, warns the Pharmaceutical Society of Zambia (PSZ)'s president Liyoka Liyoka. Liyoka noted that the health budget of the country is ZMW4.4bn (USD364.08mn), out of which only ZMW754mn (USD62.39mn) is allocated for drugs and medical supplies. 'This ZMW4.4bn (USD364.08mn) budget is about 8% of the total budget, which is actually far too short of the Abuja Declaration of 15% of the total budget,' according to Liyoka.
BMI Economic View
Zambia's budget deficit will increase in 2016 thanks to another fall in copper production and the likelihood of increasing recurrent expenditure in the build-up to the general election. Given the significant depreciation of the kwacha in 2015, it is likely that the government will turn to domestic lenders to finance this gap.
BMI Political View
We expect that Hakainde Hichilema will win the presidential election in Zambia scheduled for September 2016, defeating incumbent Edgar Lungu. As leader of the opposition party, United Party for National Development, Hichilema will capitalise on the challenges Zambians have faced during the economic turmoil that has coincided with Lungu's presidency.
The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.