Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 11 May 2015

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The somewhat rebounded copper price s seen since the beginning of this year may prevent the deepening of the economic crisis in Zambia after the prices depreciated in 2014. This may prompt the government to stick with its commitment to strengthening policies of providing affordable and quality health care. In line with this, Zambia's health ministry has begun deploying specialised doctors to all provincial health facilities in a latest bid to bring primary healthcare services closer to communities. The move is part of the government's goal illustrated in the National Training Operative Plan and the PF manifesto to promote health. The government aims to set up specialised care units that are fully equipped and staffed in order to cut the number of patients referred overseas.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.29bn (USD210mn) in 2014 to ZMW1.46bn (USD182mn) in 2015; +12.7% in local currency terms and -13.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains flat from last quarter.

  • Healthcare: ZMW8.32bn (USD1.35bn) in 2014 to ZMW9.49bn (USD1.19bn) in 2015; +14.1% in local currency terms and -12.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

Risk/Reward Index

Zambia has a Risk/Reward Index score of 34.7 out of 100, making it the 22th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the MEA region. This represents an improvement by two positions since the last quarter. Rewards were driven primarily by the country's good growth prospects in 2015 in light of firms such as GlaxoSmithKline investing in private sector medicine supply chains, as well as small-scale health insurance and other projects, illustrating that there are opportunities for private sector investment. Risks are weighed down by the lack of fixed time periods for approvals and not recognising international quality assurance qualifications.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Kingpharm Zambia is to open a USD30mn pharmaceutical plant at the Lusaka East Multi Facility...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
16
Healthcare Market Forecast
17
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
20
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2010-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Zambia 2011-2018)
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Middle East & Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Zambia Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Rewards
34
Risks
34
Market Overview
36
Industry Trends And Developments
39
Epidemiology
39
Healthcare Sector
41
Regulatory Development
46
Demographic Forecast
51
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
52
Table: Zambia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
53
Table: Zambia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
54
Table: Zambia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
54
Glossary
55
Methodology
57
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
57
Notes On Methodology
58
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Ratings Overview
60
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
60
Indicator Weightings
61

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc