Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 10 August 2015

Quarterly report providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position

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Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price

BMI View: Despite low copper prices, we anticipate real GDP growth of 6.0% in Zambia in 2015, from an estimated 6.0% in 2014. Private and government consumption will remain the key drivers of growth, with resilient domestic demand helping to offset weaknesses in the export sector. Growth will also be supported by a stable inflationary environment. This may prompt the government to stick with its commitment to strengthening policies of providing affordable and quality health care.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.48bn (USD241mn) in 2014 to ZMW1.67bn (USD219mn) in 2015; +12.7% in local currency terms and -9.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased compared to the previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: ZMW8.32bn (USD1.35bn) in 2014 to ZMW9.47bn (USD1.24bn) in 2015; +13.9% in local currency terms and -8.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast remains flat compared to the previous quarter.

Risk/Reward Index

Zambia has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 32.3 out of 100, making it the 24th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. This represents a downgrade by two positions since the last quarter.

Key Trends & Developments

  • Zambian Health Minister Joseph Kasonde has instructed the newly-appointed board of the Zambia Medicines Regulatory Authority (ZAMRA) to put focus on developing an environment for domestic pharmaceutical industry growth. The board needs to also strengthen the licensing system for various participants in the industry under recently introduced legislation, Kasonde noted. Furthermore, the board has been tasked with protecting the country from harmful substandard and counterfeit drugs. Such fake medicines have been on the rise as a result of the rapid globalisation of pharmaceutical trade in the country.

  • The Swedish government has resumed healthcare aid to Zambia, ending a six-year health aid ban imposed due to concerns over financial misapplication. The move clears the way for the release of...

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BMI Industry View
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2019)
Healthcare Market Forecast
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2019)
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2019)
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2011-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Zambia 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015
Zambia Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Healthcare Sector
Regulatory Development
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025)
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
Notes On Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Index Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Indicator Weightings

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.


BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.