BMI View: Real GDP growth in Zambia will remain subdued in 2016 at 3.4% due to a struggling copper industry and persistent power shortages. Private consumption will be restrained by higher interest rates and food costs stemming from a weak currency. Government expenditure maintains a focus on unproductive areas of the economy, such as public sector wages, while capital spending remains well below the amount necessary to improve the country's underdeveloped energy, infrastructure and healthcare sectors.
Headline Expenditure Forecast
Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD194mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.89bn (USD151mn) in 2016; +12.6% in local currency terms and -22.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms decreased compared to the previous quarter.
Healthcare: ZMW9.44bn (USD1.09bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.71bn (USD857mn) in 2016; +13.4% in local currency terms and -21.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast increased in local currency terms, but decreased in US dollar terms compared to the previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.241||0.194||0.151||0.151||0.164||0.172||0.180|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.94||1.20||1.09||1.00||1.04||1.05||1.05|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.9||17.7||17.6||17.4||17.2||17.0||16.7|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.351||1.093||0.857||0.867||0.951||1.011||1.075|
Zambia has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 28.7 out of 100, making it the 28th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region in Q216. This represents a downgrade by one position since the last quarter. The country's score reflects its low per capita spending on drugs, the small market size and the lack of fixed time periods for approvals and recognition of international quality assurance qualifications. However, its growth prospects are healthy and the lack of healthcare personnel, gaps in the distribution network and limited domestic production capabilities have all been identified and have plans aimed at their resolve.
An HIV self-testing project, Self-Testing Africa (STAR), has been launched during the 18th International Conference on AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Infections in Africa in December 2015. The four-year pilot project includes Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe and during the first phase, spread over two years, nearly 750,000 self testing kits will be distributed, which will allow rapid and easy self testing by using an oral swab.
The STAR project represents an investment of USD23mn, supported by UNITAID and aims to achieve UNAIDS' 90-90-90 treatment targets set for 2020 ensure that 90% of people living with HIV know their status, 90% of people with diagnosed HIV infection receive sustained antiretroviral therapy (ART), while 90% of individuals on ART achieve viral suppression (allAfrica).
On December 19th, at the 2015 Zambia Medical Association (ZMA) annual ball and gala night Zambia's President Edgar Lungu stated that the country is poised to be transformed into a regional health hub, where people can access all medical services. 'My government is building 650 health posts across the country. We are constructing district hospitals and so far, many have been completed. Our vision is to turn Zambia into a regional health tourism hub', according to President Lungu (allAfrica).
BMI Economic View
Dwindling copper revenues will continue to weigh on Zambia's current account deficit, while the capital and financial account will see a surplus as a result. The weak currency will challenge net export value, making imports more costly and overvaluing exports. The government and central bank will try to boost investor sentiment in order to increase FDI inflows and support the growing twin deficits.
BMI Political View
Various macroeconomic and domestic challenges will make it easier for opposition leader, Hakainde Hichilema to secure a win in the next presidential elections, taking place in August 2016. Incumbent President Edgar Lungu continues to focus on social spending in light of the upcoming elections, although we believe it will not be enough to secure public favour.
The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.