Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: The Zambian government will continue to boost social expenditure as President Lungu attempts to gain public favour in light of the August general elections. Fiscal revenues will increase gradually, in line with the copper sector's slow recovery, but real GDP growth in Zambia wi ll still remain subdued in 2016 . Government expenditure maintains a focus on unproductive areas of the economy, such as public sector wages, while capital spending remains well below the amount necessary to improve the country's underdeveloped healthcare sector .

Headline Expenditure Forecast

  • Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD190mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.81bn (USD160mn) in 2016; +7.9% in local currency terms and -17.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms increased compared to the previous quarter.

  • Healthcare: ZMW9.48bn (USD1.10bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.75bn (USD960mn) in 2016; +13.4% in local currency terms and -12.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms increased compared to the previous quarter.

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.240 0.190 0.160 0.180 0.190 0.200 0.220
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 0.93 1.20 0.95 0.91 0.95 0.93 0.94
Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure 17.9 17.7 16.8 16.4 16.0 15.9 15.8
Health spending, USDbn 1.350 1.100 0.960 1.080 1.210 1.290 1.380

Risk/Reward Index

Zambia has a Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score of 26.3 out of 100, making it the 29th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region in Q316. This represents a downgrade by one position since the last quarter, reflecting the effects of subdued economic growth prospects on healthcare spending and developing the country's pharmaceutical landscape.

Latest Updates

  • According to Ministry of Health permanent secretary Peter Mwaba, the government has approved more than 9,000 jobs in the health sector in order to improve health service delivery and meet staffing levels in newly constructed health facilities. This precedes a broader effort by the government to establish the National Social Health Insurance Scheme as an alternative mechanism for financing health care.

  • During his speech at the 2016 General Assembly for HIV/AIDS control at UN headquarters in New York in June 2016, minister Dr Joseph Kasonde said the 54-member African Group believes that 'zero new infections, zero discrimination and zero AIDS deaths are attainable before 2030'. He argued that the rate of new infections had declined or stabilised in many African countries and AIDS-related deaths were declining with treatment programmes expanding.

  • According to the immunisation 2014 report released in February 2016 by the WHO regional office for Africa and Eastern Mediterranean, Zambia has immunised 86% of children countrywide against three infectious diseases - diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus, also known as DPT3. This fell short of the 90% continent target, but exceeded the African average of 80%.

BMI Economic View

The Zambian government will continue to boost social expenditure as President Lungu attempts to gain public favour in light of the August general elections. Fiscal revenues will increase gradually, in line with the copper sector's slow recovery. Elevated public debt levels will keep investors cautious as concern over debt-servicing costs rise.

BMI Political View

The FY2016/17 budget will remain under pressure as the Zambian government prioritises social spending in order to gain public favour ahead of the upcoming general elections in August. We forecast the fiscal deficit will narrow only marginally to 7.8% in FY2016/17 compared to 8.1% in FY2015/16. Elevated public debt levels will keep investors cautious as concern over debt-servicing costs rise.

BMI Industry View
5
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020)
5
SWOT
7
Industry Forecast
8
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
8
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020)
11
Healthcare Market Forecast
12
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020)
15
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020)
15
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020)
15
Industry Risk Reward Index
16
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q2 2016
16
Zambia Risk/Reward Index
23
Rewards
23
Risks
23
Regulatory Review
25
Market Overview
30
Healthcare Sector
33
Epidemiology
36
Demographic Forecast
39
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025)
40
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025)
40
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025)
41
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025)
41
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025)
42
Glossary
44
Methodology
46
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
46
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
46
Notes On Methodology
47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
48
Index Overview
49
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
49
Indicator Weightings
50

The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.