BMI View: Zambia ' s government expenditure maintained a focus on unproductive areas of the economy, such as public sector wages, while capital spending remained well below the amount necessary to improve the country's underdeveloped healthcare sector. However, compared to 2015 and most of 2016, we anticipate Zambia's improved fiscal position in the coming years owing to recovering copper prices and reduced imports of food , among other factors , which will feed through improved levels of government spending on healthcare.
Headline Expenditure Forecast
Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD194mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.80bn (USD174mn) in 2016; +7.3% in local currency terms and -10.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from previous quarter.
Healthcare: ZMW9.43bn (USD1.09bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.7bn (USD1.03bn) in 2016; +13.2% in local currency terms and -5.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast virtually unchanged from previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.241||0.194||0.174||0.192||0.201||0.206||0.212|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.90||0.89||0.80||0.77||0.74||0.71||0.67|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.9||17.7||16.8||16.0||15.3||14.8||14.2|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.348||1.092||1.031||1.197||1.311||1.393||1.485|
In Q117, we have revised Zambia's Risk/Reward Index score slightly downwards to 28.7 from 29.9 previously (out of 100). The score revision was mainly driven by a lower Industry Rewards score. Zambia has shifted down one ranking position to 27th in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors, out of 33 countries monitored in the Middle East and Africa region. Zambia's score is driven by high population growth and sustained healthcare sector development, but is dragged down by the small market size and low spending per capita on medicine.
In December 2016, an updated survey results released by the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) demonstrate that three African countries - Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe - have made progress against the HIV epidemic. According to PEPFAR, epidemic is becoming controlled with achieved viral load suppression among an average of 65% of all adults living with HIV in the three countries.
At the World AIDS Day commemoration at Lusaka Showgrounds In December 2016, Zambia's Minister of Health Chitalu Chilufya said despite the country's progress in HIV prevention, there is need to scale up efforts so as to remain in line with the global commitments of ending AIDS as an epidemic by 2030. (Lusaka Times)
In November 2016, Kampala (Uganda) based Cipla Quality Chemical Industries (Cipla QCIL) confirmed the rumours that it is considering an IPO with further details remaining undisclosed. Cipla QCIL, 62.3% owned by Indian drug maker Cipla, was founded as a joint venture in 2005 and focuses on the production of the anti-malaria drugs, anti-retrovirals and hepatitis B drugs, mainly selling in Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania, South Sudan and Angola. (allAfrica)
BMI Economic View
Growth in Zambia will pick up over 2017 as the economy continues to recover from the collapse in copper prices. Both the mining sector and rising domestic demand will provide tailwinds to the economy over the year ahead.
BMI Political View
Structurally high unemployment and endemic poverty in Zambia will see protests continue into 2017. While the government's fiscal austerity measures will see an increasing number of poor Zambians take to the streets to demonstrate, this will not prevent the government from implementing its consolidation plans.
The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.