BMI View: Zambia's pharmaceutical and healthcare sector growth story will remain relatively constructive over the next few quarters on the back of improving economic and fiscal indicators. In fact, compared to 2015 and most of 2016, we anticipate Zambia's improved fiscal position in the coming years owing to recovering copper prices and reduced imports of food and power as El Nino-induced droughts abate, which will feed through improved levels of government spending on healthcare and higher private consumption in the sector .
Headline Expenditure Forecast
Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD194mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.80bn (USD174mn) in 2016; +7.8% in local currency terms and -10.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards in US dollar terms compared to the previous quarter.
Healthcare: ZMW9.46bn (USD1.10bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.72bn (USD1.04bn) in 2016; +13.3% in local currency terms and -5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards in US dollar terms compared to the previous quarter.
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.240||0.190||0.170||0.190||0.200||0.210||0.210|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||0.90||0.89||0.79||0.72||0.67||0.63||0.60|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of health expenditure||17.9||17.7||16.8||16.1||15.3||14.7||14.1|
|Health spending, USDbn||1.350||1.100||1.040||1.190||1.320||1.400||1.490|
In Q416, we have revised upwards Zambia's Risk/Reward Index score to 29.9 from 26.3 previously (out of 100). The score revision was mainly driven by higher sector value growth indices. Zambia has shifted up three ranking positions to 26th in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors out of 32 countries monitored in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Zambia score is driven by high population growth and sustained healthcare sector development but is dragged down by the small market size and low spending per capita on medicine.
In August 2016, Zambia Medicine Regulatory Authority (ZAMRA) raised concerns about the increased number of unregistered drug outlets in the country. ZAMRA noted that out of a large number of drug outlets in the country only 241 are registered while the authority closed 140 outlets since early 2015 and will continue to clamp down on the sector and raise awareness of the risks associated with illegal drug sales.
Moreover, in July 2016 the Ministry of Health and ZAMRA announced a national health strategy plan based on opening health shops in underserved rural and peri-urban areas while, instead of closing illegal vendors operating in these areas, training the personnel and upgrading and regulating the practice to sale OTC medicines.
As of information reported by the Ministry of Health in July 2016, Zambia is part of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health Initiative, which will provide the Zambian government with tools and systems to better collect health data and use it to prioritize health challenges, develop policies, and deploy resources as well as measure success.
On June 17 2016, Zambia ratified the Tripartite Free Trade Area Agreement with African trade areas COMESA, SADC and EAC, which means Zambia will benefit from a large intra-African free market, increasing the country's potential appeal to pharmaceutical and healthcare operators.
BMI Economic View
Economic growth in Zambia will begin to recover over the months ahead as improving rainfall raises agricultural output and domestic power supply. We expect that copper mining sector activity will tick upwards, as gradually rising copper prices encourage firms to raise production, and will provide a modest boost to economic activity over the next 18 months.
BMI Political View
Social unrest will remain elevated in Zambia in the near term, after Edgar Lungu's narrow win over opponent Hakainde Hichilema in the August 11 presidential elections. While the government will maintain a more investor friendly policy toward the mining sector, we expect that sentiment will only slowly improve in the wake of sclerotic mining sector policy during Lungu's prior term.
The Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zambia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zambia pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zambia, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zambian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.