Zambia Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

Why you should buy this report

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Zambia Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Zambia's power crisis is set to worsen due to prolonged lack of rainfall , reducing the capacity of the Kariba hydropower plant. The Maamba Coal-fired plant coming online will bring some respite, but will not be sufficient to cover the hydropower shortfall.

Headline Power Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, UN Data
Generation, Total, TWh 12.497 11.251 10.071 10.472 10.655 10.756 10.839
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 8.9 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.6 11.8
Capacity, Net, MW 1,894.0 2,054.0 2,353.9 2,600.9 2,600.9 2,600.9 2,600.9

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • Zambia's Energy Minister has announced Zambia's power deficit could increase by as much as 42% as low water levels at the Kariba dam threaten electricity generation levels.

  • The 300MW Maamba power plant, set to come online in mid-2016, will receive a total of USD300mn in funding from The Bank of China and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with another USD150mn coming from The Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa and the Development Bank of Southern Africa.

  • Labour strikes and irregularities in the delivery of cement has resulted in constant delays to the Itezhi Tezhi hydropower plant.

  • The Kariba hydropower plant is reported to be at risk of collapsing if the water levels should increase again. A collapse is projected to endanger the lives of 3.5 million people as well as the Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique.

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Zambia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2014-2019)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
11
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
15
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
26
Power Risk/Reward Index
26
Sub-Saharan Africa Regional RRI
26
Table: SSA Q415 - Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Risks
31
Market Overview
32
Key Policies And Market Structure
32
Southern Africa Power Projects Database
37
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database
37
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
55
MEA Power: Key Regional Themes
55
Glossary
61
Table: Glossary Of Terms
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
65
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
65
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
66
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
67

The Zambia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).