BMI View: The outlook for Zambia ' s power sector is generally positive. After decades of underinvestment by the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) the government has responded to the demands of the mining and manufacturing sectors to galvani s e the development of new generating capacity. A number of coal-fired and hydropower stations are under development and close to completion, sufficient to cover Zambia ' s needs and allow for significant volumes of exports.
With the help of international donors, the government is also expanding the transmission network, opening up the domestic electricity market. However, barriers to investment remain. The power sector is dominated by a single state-owned monopoly, the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), the country lacks a regulatory framework, and private participation in the energy sector is limited. In addition, Zambia suffers from political instability and a hostile commercial environment.
Power generation will reaching 15.0TWh by 2024.
Power consumption will rise to 12.4TWh by 2024. This implies there is potential for the export of electricity.
Transmission and distribution losses in 2015 will be high, at 16.3% of output and is forecast to decline to 12.8% over the 10-year forecast period to 2024.
Zambia is making efforts to expand its supply of electricity to combat a severe power shortage. In December, the government signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Kenya, which will lead to the construction of a 2,300km, USD1.2bn interconnector between the two countries with an estimated completion date of 2018. Kenya has an excess of electricity after it tapped into its vast geothermal energy.
Zambia is also seeking to minimise losses from existing generators. In January, ZESCO announced it would soon complete the installation of a fibre-optic network running on high voltage power lines around the country. This will greatly enhance the quality...
The Zambia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).