BMI View: Zambia will continue to be a net-importer of electricity in 2016 due to the drought constraining hydropower generation. Despite the government's statements that it would seek to diversify its power sector, most of new capacity investment is focused on hydropower. The 300MW Maamba thermal power plant will provide some stability to the power sector from 2017.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI|
|Generation, Total, TWh||12.500||11.250||8.350||11.280||11.460||11.570||14.980|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||8.9||9.5||10.0||10.6||11.1||11.6||11.8|
|Capacity, Net, MW||1,882.5||1,882.5||2,093.1||2,119.2||2,119.2||2,868.7||2,868.7|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Zambian President, Edgar Lungu, has stated that the government is keen to diversify its power mix due to the ongoing power crisis as a result of the drought. However, we still forecast that hydropower will generate more than 80% of Zambia's total electricity output due to a lack of other projects forecast to come online.
The 2.4 gigawatt (GW) Batoka Gorge hydropower project - a joint undertaking by Zambia and Zimbabwe - has been slated to come online by 2023, according to the Zimbabwean Energy Minister Samuel Undenge. Due to lack of evidence on progress and previous funding issues, we do not factor the dam into our forecasts as of yet.
Due to President Lungu's statement that the Zambian government is keen to diversify the power sector, we note that investments into thermal projects are likely for the future. However, due to no new projects being announced as of yet, we still forecast that hydropower will remain dominant.
Our forecasts for thermal power generation in Zambia remain unchanged. We do not factor in any thermal power increases after the Maamba coal-fired power plant comes online in 2017.
Parts of Zambia have been experiencing load shedding longer than the scheduled 8 hours. This is due to a technical fault occurring at the power interconnector with Zimbabwe, according to the Minister of Energy.
Zambia is importing additional electricity from Mozambique. This is due to the 100 megawatt (MW) Karadeniz Holding power ship docked at Nacala, supplying power to both Mozambique and Zambia.
The Zambia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).