Zambia Power Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the power.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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Zambia Power Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: A high focus on increasing hydropower capacity means that the Zambian power sector will remain vulnerable to power cuts during periods of lower rainfall or droughts. Current efforts to diversify the power sector through thermal and renewable power investments will not be sufficient to make up for a shortfall in hydropower generation. Some stability in the sector will come from the full commissioning of the Maamba coal-fired power plant in 2017.

Headline Power Forecasts (Zambia 2015-2021)
2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, UN Data, BMI
Generation, Total, TWh 11.250 9.210 11.230 11.410 11.520 14.930 15.030
Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.0
Capacity, Net, MW 1,890.0 2,224.4 2,374.4 2,374.8 2,376.1 3,127.9 3,129.9

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • We are maintaining our hydropower forecasts made in the last quarter. We expect that hydropower will remain Zambia's dominant source of electricity generation, producing more than 80% of total electricity output over our 10-year forecast period.

  • The Zambia River Authority (ZRA) has stated that it will undergo a market sounding for the planned Batoka Gorge hydropower project. The ZRA will try to gauge investor interest in the USD4bn project before feasibility studies will be completed and a tender extended for the project.

  • The first 150 megawatts (MW) of the 300MW Maamba coal-fired power plant was commissioned in August 2016. We have amended our forecasts to incorporate the first two units of the power plant coming online before 2017. We forecast that units 3 and 4 will come online in 2017.

  • Standard Chartered Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) have partnered to provide a USD60mn loan to the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (Zesco) to finance expenditure for the rehabilitation of Lusaka's transmission and distribution network.

  • The first phase of a project to connect Tanzania to the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is underway, which will be done via Zambia. The project is called the Backbone Interconnector Project.

  • We note that the Zambian government is aiming to increase its renewables capacity through solar projects. With the latest tender, up to 73MW capacity of solar power contracts has been awarded. With the increase in renewables investment in Zambia, we will be including a renewables forecast piece with our reports from next quarter.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Zambia Snapshot
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2014-2019)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2020-2025)
9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
9
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario
10
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
10
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025)
15
Electricity Consumption
15
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019)
16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025)
16
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
16
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019)
17
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025)
18
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2019)
18
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2020-2025)
18
Industry Risk/Reward Index
19
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Index
19
Rewards
19
Risks
19
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook
20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
26
Market Overview
27
Key Policies And Market Structure
27
Regulation and Competition
27
Pricing
27
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure
28
Competitive Landscape
31
Competitive Landscape
31
Competitive Landscape
31
Regional Overview
36
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
36
Glossary
44
Table: Glossary Of Terms
44
Methodology
45
Methodology And Sources
45
Industry Forecast Methodology
45
Sources
48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
50

The Zambia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).