Zambia Power Report

Published 30 January 2015

  • 60 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Zambia ' s power sector is generally positive. After decades of underinvestment by the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) the government has responded to the demands of the mining and manufacturing sectors to galvanize the development of new generating capacity. A number of coal-fired and hydropower stations are under development and close to completion, sufficient to cover Zambia ' s needs and allow for significant volumes of exports. In this context, power generation will increase by 4.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2015 to 13.3TWh, and rising to 20.3TWh in 2023. Meanwhile, power consumption will increase by 4.9% y-o-y in 2015 to 11.1TWh, rising to 16.9TWh by 2023.

With the help of international donors, the government is also expanding the transmission network, opening up the domestic electricity market. However, barriers to investment remain. The power sector is dominated by a single state-owned monopoly (ZESCO), the country lacks a regulatory framework and private participation in the energy sector is limited. In addition, Zambia suffers from political instability and a hostile commercial environment.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will reaching 20.3TWh by 2023.

  • Power consumption will rise to 16.9TWh by 2023. This implies considerable potential for the export of electricity.

  • Transmission and distribution losses in 2015 will be high at 15.8% of output and will gradually decline only slightly in percentage terms over the 10-year forecast period.

Recent Developments

  • Demand for electricity will rise in 2015 due to an expansion in industrial activity. In particular, projects such as First Quantum Mineral Ltd's Sentinel mine and copper smelter will consume huge additional volumes of power.

  • Additional activity at the coal-fired Maamba plant and the Itezhi Tezhi hydropower station will bolster production. The launch of the 4.8MW Lunzua small hydro project in November 2014 will also have a positive effect....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Zambia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2018-2023)
11
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
11
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
15
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
23
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2017)
23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2018-2023)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
30
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Rewards
31
Risks
31
Market Overview
33
Key Policies And Market Structure
33
Southern Africa Power Projects Database
39
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database
39
Competitive Landscape
44
Regional Overview
49
MEA Power Regional Overview
49
Glossary
55
Table: Glossary Of Terms
55
Methodology
56
Methodology And Sources
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Zambia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc