Zambia Power Report

Published 19 June 2015

  • 67 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zambia Power Report

BMI View: The outlook for Zambia ' s power sector is generally positive. After decades of underinvestment by the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) the government has responded to the demands of the mining and manufacturing sectors to galvanize the development of new generating capacity. A number of coal-fired and hydropower stations are under development and close to completion, sufficient to cover Zambia ' s needs and allow for significant volumes of exports.

With the help of international donors, the government is also expanding the transmission network, opening up the domestic electricity market. However, barriers to investment remain. The power sector is dominated by a single state-owned monopoly, the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO), the country lacks a regulatory framework, and private participation in the energy sector is limited. In addition, Zambia suffers from political instability and a hostile commercial environment.

Key Forecasts

  • Power generation will reaching 14.2TWh by 2024.

  • Power consumption will rise to 12.4TWh by 2024. This implies there is potential for the export of electricity.

  • Transmission and distribution losses in 2015 will be high, at 16.3% of output, and is forecasted to decline to 12.9% over the 10-year forecast period.

Recent Developments

  • Zambia is making efforts to expand its supply of electricity to combat a severe power shortage. In December, the government signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Kenya which will lead to the construction of a 2,300km, USD1.2bn interconnector between the two countries with an estimated completion date of 2018. Kenya has an excess of electricity after it tapped into its vast geothermal energy.

  • Zambia is also seeking to minimize losses from existing generators. In January, ZESCO announced that it would soon complete the installation of an optical fibre network running on high voltage power lines around the country. This will greatly enhance the quality...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts
7
Recent Developments
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Zambia Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2013-2018)
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zambia 2019-2024)
11
Table: Country Snapshot - Power Sector
11
Zambia Power Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
15
Electricity Consumption
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
22
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2019-2024)
24
Industry Risk Reward Index
26
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
26
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
32
Zambia Power Risk/Reward Index
33
Rewards
33
Risks
33
Market Overview
34
Key Policies And Market Structure
34
Southern Africa Power Projects Database
39
Table: Southern Africa Power Projects Database
39
Competitive Landscape
48
Regional Overview
53
MEA Power Regional Overview
53
Glossary
58
Table: Glossary Of Terms
58
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
62
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
64

The Zambia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Zambia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Zambia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc