BMI View: Zambia's power crisis is set to worsen due to prolonged lack of rainfall , reducing the capacity of the Kariba hydropower plant. The Maamba Coal-fired plant coming online will bring some respite, but will not be sufficient to cover the hydropower shortfall.
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, EIA, UN Data|
|Generation, Total, TWh||12.497||11.251||10.071||10.472||10.655||10.756||10.839|
|Consumption, Net Consumption, TWh||8.9||9.5||10.0||10.6||11.1||11.6||11.8|
|Capacity, Net, MW||1,894.0||2,054.0||2,353.9||2,600.9||2,600.9||2,600.9||2,600.9|
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
Zambia's Energy Minister has announced Zambia's power deficit could increase by as much as 42% as low water levels at the Kariba dam threaten electricity generation levels.
The 300MW Maamba power plant, set to come online in mid-2016, will receive a total of USD300mn in funding from The Bank of China and The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with another USD150mn coming from The Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa and the Development Bank of Southern Africa.
Labour strikes and irregularities in the delivery of cement has resulted in constant delays to the Itezhi Tezhi hydropower plant.
The Kariba hydropower plant is reported to be at risk of collapsing if the water levels should increase again. A collapse is projected to endanger the lives of 3.5 million people as well as the Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique.
The Zambia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Zambia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Zambia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario
Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
- Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
- Trade: Total imports and exports.
- Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
- Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.
BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.
Key Projects Database
Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.
Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.
Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts
Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.
Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.
The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).