Zimbabwe Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Zimbabwe Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Zimbabwe will record positive, albeit very mild, economic growth over the next two years as an ongoing dollar shortage compounds the impact of adverse weather conditions. The uncertainty surrounding the possibility of regime change will mean prospects for a strong recovery remain slim before President Mugabe's succession.

  • An ongoing currency shortage and slow economic growth will continue to weigh on public finances over the next two years. Some relief will come from the government's efforts to re-establish relations with the IMF, allowing access to much-needed credit from international lenders, but this will nonetheless lead to some widening of the budget deficit.

  • In the event of de-dollarisation in Zimbabwe, high levels of inflation would make a return to the economy, as weak balance of payments dynamics would see the new currency sell off at a rapid rate. This Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe would accompany the process with a series of interest rate hikes in a bid to temper price growth, but with little effect.

  • While Zimbabwe's current account deficit will narrow significantly in 2016, this is a result of the country's chronic shortage of foreign currency and lack of inward investment, rather than any improvement in exports. Dynamics will improve slightly in 2017 as the economy sees some recovery, but the external position will remain vulnerable to volatility in investor sentiment.

  • Increasingly vocal opposition to President Robert Mugabe will add to pre-existing pressures surrounding the prospect of political succession in Zimbabwe. The likelihood of a chaotic transition of power will increase the risk of derailing the country's fragile economic recovery.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • We have revised our expectations for the current account deficit over 2016, as weak demand and the ongoing shortage of US dollars in the economy will limit imports.

Key Risks:

  • The succession of President Robert Mugabe risks turning violent if plans are not put in place and set in motion prior to his departure, as competing vested interests struggle to fill the power vacuum left in his wake.

  • Premature abandonment of the foreign currency regime would likely have a negative impact on the economy.

  • The weather is also a major risk. The country has seen several droughts over the last two decades which have had a devastating impact on the important agricultural sector and there is always a risk of a recurrence of poor rains.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2016-2025)
Indicator 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.9 19.7 21.7 23.9 26.3 29.0 32.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.6 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8
Population, mn 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4
GDP per capita, USD 958 977 1,012 1,068 1,148 1,239 1,340 1,451 1,572 1,704
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave -1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -17.4 -16.9 -16.6 -16.4 -16.2 -16.1 -16.0 -15.9 -15.8 -15.6
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Growth Will Remain Weak On Adverse Weather Conditions
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
9
TABLE: GDP FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS
10
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
10
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
10
Fiscal Progress Clouded By Tense Political Climate
10
Structural Fiscal Position
11
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
12
External Trade And Investment Outlook
12
Current Account Deficit Remains Deep On Weak Export Production
12
Monetary Policy
13
Inflation To Return On Increasing Money Supply And Food Shortages
13
Monetary Policy Framework
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Zimbabwean Economy To 2025
17
Policy Risks To Constrain Long-Term GDP Growth
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
New Political Party Adds Another Challenge To Succession
20
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
21
Succession Question Prompts Heightened Instability
21
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
24
Economic Openness
25
TABLE: FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS
29
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
31
Availability Of Labour
32
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - AVAILABILITY OF LABOUR RISK
33
TABLE: TOP 10 MIGRANT SOURCE COUNTRIES
37
TABLE: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, '000
38
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
41
Global Macro Outlook
41
Tentative Stability, But New Risks Emerging
41
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
41
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
42
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
43
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
45

Assess your risk exposure in Zimbabwe with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Zimbabwe with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report