Zimbabwe Country Risk Report

Providing comprehensive data and in-depth analysis of political, financial and economic risk.

Report includes: BMI's Core Views, 10-year Forecasts, BMI's Economic Risk Index, Political Stability and Risk Index, Long-term Political Outlook, Operational Risk Index, SWOT Analysis and Structural Economic Sections

Why you should buy this report

  • Understand and measure the political, business environment and operational risks to your company
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Benefit from 10-year macroeconomic forecasts and insight into the structural characteristics of the economy
  • Get the long-term political outlook and explore possible scenarios for change
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Zimbabwe Country Risk Report
Product Price
$1,195.00

Core Views:

  • Growing signs of internal divisions in the ruling ZANU-PF adds to existing uncertainty over the future of politics in Zimbabwe once 91-year-old President Robert Mugabe retires or dies. Against this backdrop, a worsening economic climate will put added pressure on government stability.

  • The deflationary conditions that Zimbabwe has been experiencing for the past two years will persist through 2016 due to subdued domestic demand, a weak South African rand and weak international commodity prices.

  • Political and policy uncertainty will continue to deter much-needed investment into the moribund Zimbabwean economy, while a weak harvest, depreciating South African rand, and lower commodity prices will also weigh on short-term economic activity.

  • We estimate that the Zimbabwean economy slipped into recession in 2015 driven by a crippling drought, weak demand for key mineral exports (ie gold and diamonds) and limited investment opportunities. We expect only a minor improvement over the coming quarters, with economic conditions set to remain highly challenging owing to both domestic and external headwinds.

Major Forecast Changes:

  • No major forecasts changes

Key Risks:

  • The succession of President Robert Mugabe risks turning violent if plans are not put in place and set in motion prior to his departure, as competing vested interests struggle to fill the power vacuum left in his wake.

  • Premature abandonment of the foreign currency regime would likely have a negative impact on the economy.

  • The weather is also a major risk. The country has seen several droughts over the last two decades which have had a devastating impact on the important agricultural sector and there is always a risk of a recurrence of poor rains.

Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2016-2025)
Indicator 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f
National Sources/BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 13.7 14.1 15.0 16.2 17.8 19.7 21.7 23.9 26.3 29.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.3 5.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Population, mn 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4
GDP per capita, USD 885 888 918 968 1,041 1,124 1,217 1,318 1,428 1,548
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave -1.3 0.4 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -26.6 -26.4 -25.6 -24.4 -22.9 -21.4 -20.1 -18.8 -17.6 -16.4
Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Major Forecast Changes
5
Key Risks
5
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Economic Risk Index
7
Economic Growth Outlook
8
Economy Stuck In The Doldrums
8
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
8
TABLE: 10-YEAR ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS
9
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION FORECASTS
9
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
9
Monetary Policy
10
Deflationary Conditions To Remain In 2016
10
Monetary Policy Framework
11
Fiscal And Debt Outlook
12
Little Near-Term Growth Triggers
12
Structural Fiscal Position
13
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
14
Currency Forecast
15
ZAR: 2016 Budget To Revive Early-Year Bullish Run
15
TABLE: BMI SOUTH AFRICA CURRENCY FORECAST
15
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
17
The Zimbabwean Economy To 2025
17
Policy Risks To Constrain Long-Term GDP Growth
17
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
17
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
19
SWOT Analysis
19
BMI Political Risk Index
19
Domestic Politics
20
Factionalism To Continue Dominating Political Discourse
20
Long-Term Political Outlook
20
Succession Question Prompts Heightened Instability
20
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
23
SWOT Analysis
23
Operational Risk Index
23
Operational Risk
24
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
24
Trade Procedures And Governance
25
TABLE: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA - TRADE PROCEDURES AND GOVERNANCE
26
Vulnerability To Crime
27
TABLE: IMPORT AND EXPORT DOCUMENTS
27
TABLE: TRADE PROCEDURES BREAKDOWN
27
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
31
Global Macro Outlook
31
Downside Risks Gather Momentum
31
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
31
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
32
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
32
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
33
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS
35

Assess your risk exposure in Zimbabwe with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Zimbabwe with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:

  • Delivery of the report in print and PDF
  • Online access for 12 months
  • The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
  • The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
  • The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription
  • Access to our team of leading analysts who will be happy to answer any questions you might have about the data and forecasts included in this report