Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report

Published 18 May 2015

  • 91 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
$1,295.00
Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report

BMI View: The country's construction industry remains high risk, poorly financed and subject to the unattractive investment policies of President Robert Mugabe , with average annual real growth between 2015 - 2024 expected to be a mediocre 2.6%.

Zimbabwe holds a decent amount of potential as a frontier growth market in Southern Africa, however is highly unlikely to meet that potential under current conditions - namely the policies enacted by President Robert Mugabe and his regime, which make it risky for foreign investors to gain access to the market. The mining sector, which is a key growth driver for the country's infrastructure, has in the past been hit hard by indigenisation drives. With Mugabe expected to continue to execute these policies, we expect the mining industry will not support the infrastructure sector as we have seen previously, and therefore forecast stagnant real growth in the construction sector an annual average of 2.6% over our 10-year period.

Key Trends And Developments

  • The Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) seeks to produce more than 9,000GWh of power in 2015.The projected output is 9,799.06GWh, up from the target of 9,766.39GWh in 2014. Zimbabwe's government has started implementing projects, including the expansion of the Kariba and Hwange power plants to meet demand. Additional units to be built at Kariba and Hwange will add another 900MW to the grid.

  • The Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) is expected to complete building a 120MW emergency/peaking power plant in Mutare, Zimbabwe, by 2018. The project is estimated to cost about USD1.2bn. The gas and diesel power plant is one of the planned priority projects under the Zimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio-Economic Transformation 2014/18. The peaking power plant will have a dual powering mechanism, which will allow it to run on either diesel or gas. ZPC will import the fuel for the plant from Mozambique. ZPC has already issued a tender inviting firms to submit bids to carry out...

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zimbabwe 2013-2018)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zimbabwe 2019-2024)
10
Table: Energy & Utilities Projects Involving Chinese Companies
15
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
17
Table: Mozambique Transport Corridors
20
Major Projects Table - Transport
26
Table: Planned And Ongoing Transport Projects, Southern Africa
26
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
32
Table: SAPP Members
43
Major Projects - Energy & Utilities
46
Table: Planned And Ongoing Energy & Utilities Projects, Southern Africa
46
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook And Overview
53
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure
61
Table: Major Projects - Social Infrastructure & Construction
61
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
63
Zimbabwe - Risk/Reward Index
63
Rewards
63
Risks
63
SSA Infrastructure Challenged By Global Headwinds
65
Table: Election Timetable, April-December 2015
71
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa's Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index, Q315
72
Market Overview
73
Competitive Landscape
73
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (excluding South Africa)
73
Table: Number Of Contractors In Southern Africa (by region & including South Africa)
74
Pulling On Historic Ties
75
China Trade Off, Other Asian Countries Follow Suit
76
South Africans Expanding Into Their Backyard
78
Global Infrastructure Overview
80
Project Risk Index: Robust Financing Establishes Outperformer Status
80
Table: Project Risk Index - Top 10 Markets
80
Table: Project Risk Index - Financing Risk, SSA Top 5
81
Table: Project Risk Index - Construction Risk, Asia-Pacific Top 5
82
Table: Project Risk Index - Operation Risk, Developed Markets Top 5
83
Methodology
84
Industry Forecast Methodology
84
Sector-Specific Methodology
85
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
89
Sector-Specific Methodology
90
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
91

The Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report features BMI Research's market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Zimbabwe Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwean infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Zimbabwe to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Zimbabwean infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments. These are broken down into construction (social, commercial and residential), transport (roads, railways, ports, airports, etc), and energy & utilities (powerplants, pipelines and so on).

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (up to 2012) and forecasts to end-2024 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key developments in the market and risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (USDbn); contribution to GDP (%); total capital investment (USDbn); real growth (%).

Construction industry real growth forecasts (%) and industry value (USDbn) forecasts for industry sectors are split into Residential and Non-residential and Infrastructure sectors. Where the data is available for particular countries the infrastructure is further broken down into indicators for the transport subsectors of roads, railways, airports and ports and the energy and utilities sub-sectors of power plants and transmission grids, oil & gas pipelines and water infrastructure. This dataset is unique to the market.

The reports also include analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sectors (transport, utilities, commercial construction).

BMI’s Infrastructure Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and  demographic data points. These provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Overview

An assessment of the competitive landscape and key challenges to entering the market. Details of the largest companies active in the sector across the sub-segments of the industry, including the key financial figures from some of the largest players in the sector.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Infrastructure reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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