Zimbabwe Mining Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Petrochemicals Risk Reward Index, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews.

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  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position
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Zimbabwe Mining Report
Product Price
$1,295.00

BMI View: Zimbabwe's mining industry will grow steadily in absolute terms over our forecast period through to 2020 as production increases across the key platinum and diamond mining sub-sectors .

Zimbabwe Mining Industry Value
2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: UN Data, BMI
Mining Industry Value, USDbn 1.18 1.12 1.05 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.12 1.13
Mining Industry Value, USDbn, % y-o-y -1.38 -5.73 -5.70 -1.74 3.13 3.69 1.38 0.93

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

  • Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel, diamonds and platinum, among other minerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it has the world's second-largest platinum reserves. Diamond reserves are measured to be the second-largest globally after Russia. Development in these key markets together with a gradual more stable political and economic climate has seen the country's status as major global producers strengthen in recent years. In terms of overall output, Zimbabwe is challenging the world's largest platinum producers, Russia and South Africa, while a recent reduction in taxes for smaller gold miners will see production rise at almost a double-digit rate this year.

  • The mining sector will nevertheless face increasing challenges to its current growth trend, however. Political and economic risk remains a particular concern from both a regulatory and investment point of view and the ZANU-PF will continue to spell trouble for the future of the industry.

  • The changing regulatory environment surrounding Zimbabwe's diamond mining industry is likely to create challenges as well as opportunities for diamond production over the next few years.

  • Since February 2016, relationships between Zimbabwe and China have deteriorated following the Zimbabwean government's decision to remove Chinese companies from the Chiadzwa diamond fields. In February 2016, the country's mines minister Walter Chidhakwa cancelled existing mining licences of a number of companies by stating that their licences had expired. As a result, Anjin Investments, a joint diamond mining venture between China's Anhui Foreign Economic Construction Company Limited and the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation, has taken the Zimbabwean government to court to challenge the decision.

  • We forecast Zimbabwe to experience a temporary boost in gold production this year as the impact of a recent reduction in gold mining levies leads to an increase in activity by smaller mining firms. Zimbabwe's gold production rose by 25% during Q115 to 4,180kg, according to the country's Chamber of Mines. We forecast output growth to expand by 4.0% annually during 2016-2020, with output growing from 0.61mn ounces (moz) in 2016 to 0.70moz by 2020. Despite this growth trend, Zimbabwe will remain a relatively minor gold producer on a regional level, with the majority of production continuing to come from artisanal and small-scale producers. At present, the country is significantly behind Africa's largest gold producers, South Africa, Ghana and the DRC in terms of its total output.

  • Zimbabwe is posed to challenge Russia and South Africa as the world's leading platinum producer over the coming years as new investment by both existing and new players allows the country to capitalise on its considerable reserves, which are the second largest in the world. Coincidentally, the country will see its status lifted by slowing production growth in neighbouring South Africa, where serious difficulties as a consequence of labour unrest and high energy costs will mean that the world's largest platinum producer will experience major difficulties in maintaining production levels. We forecast Zimbabwe's output of platinum to rise from 0.41 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 0.49moz by 2020, with growth set to average annual growth of 4.7% over our forecast period.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Zimbabwe Mining Industry Value
7
Latest Developments & Structural Trends
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Platinum: Growth To Remain Positive
11
Latest Developments
11
Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
11
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects
11
Structural Trends
12
Refinery Decision Finally Made
13
Gold: Juniors To Support Output
15
Latest Developments
15
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2012-2020)
15
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe
15
Structural Trends
16
Diamonds: Significant Growth Potential, Despite Unfavourable Environment
18
Latest Developments
18
Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2012-2020)
19
Structural Trends
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Zimbabwe - Risk/Reward Index
22
Rewards
22
Industry Rewards
22
Country Rewards
22
Risks
22
Industry Risks
22
Country Risks
22
Africa - Risk/Reward Index
23
Key Takeaways
23
Latest Revisions
24
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
25
Regulatory Development
26
Regulatory Underperformance
26
Trade & Investment Risk Analysis
27
Commodities Forecast
31
Commodities Outlook
31
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts
31
Competitive Landscape
32
Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies
33
Company Profile
35
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q3 2016
35
Company Strategy
37
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data
40
Regional Overview
41
Sub-Saharan Africa Overview
41
Table: SSA - Government Involvement In Mining Sector
47
Methodology
49
Industry Forecast Methodology
49
Sources
50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
52

The Zimbabwe Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Zimbabwe Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Zimbabwe.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Zimbabwe to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zimbabwe's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.