Zimbabwe Mining Report

Published 12 June 2015

  • 78 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Zimbabwe Mining Report

BMI View: Zimbabwe's mining industry will achieve steady growth in absolute terms over our forecast period through to 2019 as production increases across the key platinum and diamond mining sub-sectors. However, we note a number of potential downside risks on the horizon, including falling mineral prices and an uncertain political and regulatory climate. Zimbabwe is richly endowed with deposits of chrome, gold, nickel, diamonds and platinum, among other minerals. Its gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it has the world's second-largest platinum reserves. Diamond reserves are measured to be the second-largest globally after Russia. Development in these key markets together with a gradual more stable political and economic climate has seen the country's status as a major global producers strengthen in recent years. In terms of overall output, Zimbabwe is challenging the world's largest platinum producers, Russian and South Africa, while a recent reduction in taxes for smaller gold miners will see production rise at almost a double-digit rate this year.

Solid Growth Outlook
Zimbabwe - Gold, Platinum & Diamond Production

The mining sector will nevertheless face increasing challenges to its current growth trend, however. Political and economic risk remains a particular concern from both a regulatory and investment point of view and the election victory of ZANU-PF will continue to spell trouble for the future of the industry. The possibility of indigenisation without compensation across the mining landscape as well as greater political interference in the sector, constitute significant threats to foreign mining companies. The March 2013 decision by the country's ministry of mines to enforce diamond miners to consolidate is a case in point. We expect investor sentiment to remain relatively sour toward Zimbabwe, diverting investment to other African countries where the political and regulatory environments are more attractive.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Platinum: Zimbabwe To Challenge Leading Producers
11
Refinery Decision Finally Made
14
Table: Zimbabwe - Major Platinum Projects
14
Political Risks Weigh Heavily On Sector
14
Table: Platinum Production (Zimbabwe 2012-2019)
15
Gold: Smaller Miners Driving Production Surge
15
Table: Key Gold Projects In Zimbabwe
18
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Zimbabwe 2012-2019)
18
Diamonds: Nationalisation One Of Several Threats To Growth
18
Table: Diamond Production (Zimbabwe 2011-2019)
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Zimbabwe - Risk/Reward Index
21
Rewards
21
Industry Rewards
21
Country Rewards
21
Risks
22
Industry Risks
22
Country Risks
22
Table: Zimbabwe - Main Mining Projects & Expansions
23
Table: Mining Industry Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2011-2019)
24
Africa Risk/Reward Index
25
High Risks, Large Rewards
25
Table: Africa - Mining Risk/Reward Index
28
Regulatory Development
29
Regulatory Underperformance
29
Beneficiation Drive
29
Structure, Law & Royalties
31
Volatile Political Climate
31
Corruption
32
Tax Regime
32
Table: Zimbabwe - Political Overview
33
Table: Africa: Mining Regulatory Outlook
34
Commodities Forecast
36
Commodity Strategy
36
Ferrous Metals
36
Iron Ore: Price Weakness To Continue Over Coming Years
36
Steel: Oversupply To Drag Down Prices
38
Non-Ferrous Metals
41
Aluminium: Continued Weakness, But No Sharp Downturn
41
Copper: Recent Relief Rally To Fade
43
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
44
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
45
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
46
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
47
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Competitive Landscape
50
Table: Southern Africa - Largest Listed Mining Companies
51
Company Profile
52
African Consolidated Resources
52
Global Company Strategy - Impala Platinum - Q3 2015
54
Table: Impala Platinum - Key Financial Data
58
Regional Overview
59
Regional Overview - Four Key Themes For 2015: Africa Mining
59
Gold To Retreat; Except In The DRC
59
West African Iron Ore On The Rocks
60
Job Cuts & Greater Mechanisation
61
Mining To Remain A Crucial Contributor To African GDP
62
Global Industry Overview
64
Global Overview
64
1
65
2
67
3
68
4
70
5
72
Methodology
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sources
75
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Zimbabwe Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Zimbabwe Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Zimbabwe.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Zimbabwe to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Zimbabwe's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Industry SWOT analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the mining sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

  • Mining industry: Industry size (USDmn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment (‘000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (USD).
  • Output: Production volumes (‘000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (USDmn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state.
  • Commodity markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (USD) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI’s Mining Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (mining companies and support service providers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing USD sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Mining reports are based on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations (UN, WB, IMF), national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc