BMI View: We expect growth in Zimbabwe ' s pharmaceutical sector to continue in the coming years. However, the country ' s ongoing financial crisis will continue to apply downward pressure on market. The lack of government funding will further deteriorate failing public healthcare services and increase medicine shortages. Worsened by a highly unstable political environment, Zimbabwe will continue to be viewed as one of the least attractive markets in the region for multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD380mn in 2015 to USD396mn in 2016; +4.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.361||0.380||0.396||0.413||0.432||0.451||0.471|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.46||2.61||2.73||2.79||2.80||2.77||2.71|
In BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q117, Zimbabwe scores a poor 25.0 out of 100, unchanged from last quarter. However, the country moved up one position from Q416 and ranked 31st out of the 32 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, just above Mozambique (23.8). Despite its rapidly growing population, Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets both regionally and globally, due to the elevated political, economic and social risks, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.
The Zimbabwean government announced it was considering the introduction of sin taxes as a way to increase revenue for healthcare provisions. If implemented, it is estimated to generate at least USD20mn a year by 2022.
In November 2016, the government announced it was working to revitalise Zimbabwe's pharmaceutical production capacity of essential drugs with a financial package of between USD20mn and USD40mn, after a study by United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) highlighted funding challenges faced by Caps Holdings, Varichem, Datlabs and Plus Five Pharmaceuticals.
Also in November, the Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe said it was battling to control an influx of people selling herbs and other medicines, as the collapsing public health system and medicine shortages force more people to turn to unlicensed street sellers for alternative treatments.
The Zimbabwe Diabetes Association (ZDA), through collaboration and support of the World Diabetes Foundation, plans to establish two diabetic clinics in Harare and the Midlands.
In October 2016, members of the Zimbabwean Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Health told local press that growing shortage of medicines and a failing health system - made worse by budget restrictions, looting and delayed salary payments - is increasing the spread of typhoid and cholera in the country.
BMI Economic View
Zimbabwe's economy will struggle with slow growth in the years ahead as an ongoing liquidity crisis continues to pose a headwind to business activity. The lack of cash circulating in the economy has led us to make downward revisions to our real GDP forecasts, including downgrading 2016 to a contraction of 2.2%. In 2017, we believe conditions will see some improvement as stronger crop harvests boost the country's key exports, but growth will nonetheless remain slow as high levels of political risk see capital continue to flow out of the economy.
BMI Political View
Zimbabwe faces a highly unstable political outlook over the next 10 years, with the succession of President Robert Mugabe a near certainty and with very little in the way of plans to replace him. The lack of any meaningful democratic tradition and an historical legacy of apartheid will present significant headwinds to stability for any new regime, keeping investors on the sidelines long into the country's future.
The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.