Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 09 June 2015

  • 84 pages
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$1,295.00
Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: Our outlook of modest growth for Zimbabwe ' s pharmaceutical sector should be treated with caution as poor monitoring and recording practices along with the country ' s reliance on aid from various sources make market figures unreliable. Pharmaceutical spending will be driven mainly by imported medicines with demand owing to a high communicable-disease burden. However, low purchasing power, a declining economy and ongoing political tensions pose high risk and uncertainty for the market, deterring multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: USD361mn in 2014 to USD380mn in 2015; +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards from last quarter .

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's RRI table for Q3 2015, Zimbabwe scores 27.8 out of 100, unchanged from last quarter. The country ranks 31 st and last out of the markets assessed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region.

Key Trends And Developments

March 2015

The Zimbabwean government has launched a strategic public-private partnership (PPP) framework to boost the country's TB and HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment, care and support ability. 'This marks a step towards achieving zero new infections, zero deaths and zero discrimination for HIV and TB,' Health and Child Care Minister David Parirenyatwa said (allAfrica). The partnership will focus on finding solutions to human resource challenges, sustainable health financing and information systems for universal access, Parirenyatwa noted. Also, the framework will leverage resources from the public and private sectors directly to lower the mortality and morbidity among people infected with HIV and TB in the country.

The Zimbabwe government will introduce new vaccines, measles rubella (MR) and inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in June, that prevent measles and polio respectively in children, according to reports by Zimbabwe Mail. This follows an increase of rubella cases in the country and the identification of rubella congenital...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Operational Risk
14
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2011-2019)
17
Healthcare Market Forecast
18
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
18
Patented Drug Market Forecast
19
Generic Drug Market Forecast
19
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
20
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2013-2019)
22
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
23
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Economic Activity (Zimbabwe 2010-2019)
27
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
28
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index
28
Zimbabwe Risk/Reward Index
36
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
38
Industry Trends And Developments
40
Epidemiology
40
Healthcare Sector
43
Table: Zimbabwe: Healthcare Facilities
44
Healthcare Funding
45
Health Insurance
47
Healthcare Staff
48
Traditional Medicine
49
Biotechnology
49
Clinical Trials
50
Regulatory Development
51
Regulatory Regime
51
Intellectual Property Developments
53
Counterfeit Drugs
54
Pricing And Reimbursement Regimes
54
Public Drug Procurement
55
Competitive Landscape
57
Pharmaceutical Industry
57
Domestic Industry
58
Foreign Industry
59
Pharmaceutical Sector Developments
59
Retail Pharmacy Sector
61
Company Profile
62
Datlabs
62
Pfizer
64
Ranbaxy
67
Varichem Laboratories
69
Demographic Forecast
72
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
73
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
73
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
74
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
75
Glossary
77
Methodology
79
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
79
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
79
Notes On Methodology
80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
81
Index Overview
82
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
82
Indicator Weightings
83

The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc