BMI View: Although the government ' s ambition to develop a national health insurance scheme to facilitate universal health coverage is a positive step, Zimbabwe ' s healthcare system , in its current state, is heavily dependent on donor funds, owing to past failures to sufficiently finance its health sector. Global recession is presenting a significant risk as the availability of funds from foreign organisation s dries up. Political instability and a grim economic outlook enforce our view that Zimbabwe will remain an unattractive market for multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD361mn in 2014 to USD380mn in 2015; +5.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.336||0.361||0.380||0.399||0.418||0.437||0.456|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.49||2.60||2.79||2.89||2.93||2.89||2.79|
In BMI's Risk/Reward Index for Q116, Zimbabwe scores 25.3 out of 100, down from last quarter's score of 27.8. The country is ranked 29th out of the 31 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, just below Nigeria (26.0) and above Uganda (24.7). Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets regionally and globally, due to the elevated political, economic and social risks, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.
In October 2015, the Cancer Association of Zimbabwe (CAZ) carried out a free breast cancer screening programme in Harare as part of World Cancer month commemorations.
In October 2015, Deputy Director for STIs and HIV programme in the Ministry of Health and Child Care, Tsitsi Apollo, addressed concerns that the new efavirenz-based antiretroviral combination scheme had serious side effects. According to statistics from the Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe, only 2% of people treated with the new regimen experienced side effects.
The government is developing a national insurance scheme to facilitate universal healthcare coverage for Zimbabweans, according to Health and Child Care Minister David Parirenyatwa. Only 10% of the population are covered under the present health insurance scheme managed by medical aid societies.
In September 2015, statistics revealed that Zimbabwe's health funders paid USD400mn in 2014 for services ranging from hospitalisation, drugs and laboratory tests, making the country's healthcare system one of the most expensive in Africa.
The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, under which Zimbabwe was receiving funds since 2003, is due to expire in 2016, while the Health Transition Fund, which has transformed the health sector since 2009, is also likely to come to an end in December.
BMI Economic View
Exposure to adverse weather conditions, a collapse in mineral demand and a dim outlook for the consumer sector will keep a lid on economic growth in Zimbabwe in 2016, pushing it barely out of recessionary territory entered in 2015.
BMI Political View
Political instability in Zimbabwe will increase in the next two years, ahead of the 2018 general election. The ruling ZANU-PF party looks set to retain dominance though succession questions will intensify as ailing president Robert Mugabe's rule approaches its end.
The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.