Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Providing expert analysis, independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

Report includes: BMI Industry View, Industry SWOT Analysis, Industry Forecasts, BMI's Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index, Market Summary, Economic Forecasts, Company Profiles and Competitive Landscape.

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Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report
Product Price
$1,345.00

BMI View: We expect growth in Zimbabwe ' s pharmaceutical sector to continue in the coming years. However, the country ' s ongoing financial crisis will continue to apply downward pressure on market. The lack of government funding will further deteriorate failing public healthcare services and increase medicine shortages. Worsened by a highly unstable political environment, Zimbabwe will continue to be viewed as one of the least attractive markets in the region for multinational drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: USD380mn in 2015 to USD396mn in 2016; +4.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly from last quarter .

Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f
f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI
Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn 0.361 0.380 0.396 0.413 0.432 0.451 0.471
Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP 2.46 2.61 2.73 2.79 2.80 2.77 2.71

Risk/Reward Index

In BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q117, Zimbabwe scores a poor 25.0 out of 100, unchanged from last quarter. However, the country moved up one position from Q416 and ranked 31st out of the 32 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, just above Mozambique (23.8). Despite its rapidly growing population, Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets both regionally and globally, due to the elevated political, economic and social risks, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.

Latest Updates

  • The Zimbabwean government announced it was considering the introduction of sin taxes as a way to increase revenue for healthcare provisions. If implemented, it is estimated to generate at least USD20mn a year by 2022.

  • In November 2016, the government announced it was working to revitalise Zimbabwe's pharmaceutical production capacity of essential drugs with a financial package of between USD20mn and USD40mn, after a study by United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) highlighted funding challenges faced by Caps Holdings, Varichem, Datlabs and Plus Five Pharmaceuticals.

  • Also in November, the Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe said it was battling to control an influx of people selling herbs and other medicines, as the collapsing public health system and medicine shortages force more people to turn to unlicensed street sellers for alternative treatments.

  • The Zimbabwe Diabetes Association (ZDA), through collaboration and support of the World Diabetes Foundation, plans to establish two diabetic clinics in Harare and the Midlands.

  • In October 2016, members of the Zimbabwean Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Health told local press that growing shortage of medicines and a failing health system - made worse by budget restrictions, looting and delayed salary payments - is increasing the spread of typhoid and cholera in the country.

BMI Economic View

Zimbabwe's economy will struggle with slow growth in the years ahead as an ongoing liquidity crisis continues to pose a headwind to business activity. The lack of cash circulating in the economy has led us to make downward revisions to our real GDP forecasts, including downgrading 2016 to a contraction of 2.2%. In 2017, we believe conditions will see some improvement as stronger crop harvests boost the country's key exports, but growth will nonetheless remain slow as high levels of political risk see capital continue to flow out of the economy.

BMI Political View

Zimbabwe faces a highly unstable political outlook over the next 10 years, with the succession of President Robert Mugabe a near certainty and with very little in the way of plans to replace him. The lack of any meaningful democratic tradition and an historical legacy of apartheid will present significant headwinds to stability for any new regime, keeping investors on the sidelines long into the country's future.

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2012-2020)
13
Healthcare Market Forecast
14
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
16
Patented Drug Market Forecast
17
Generic Drug Market Forecast
18
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
19
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2020)
21
Industry Risk/Reward Index
22
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016
22
Zimbabwe Risk/Reward Index
30
Rewards
30
Risks
30
Regulatory Review
32
Regulatory Regime
32
Intellectual Property Issues
34
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
35
Market Overview
38
Healthcare Sector
39
Table: Zimbabwe: Healthcare Facilities
39
Research & Development
45
Clinical Trials
46
Epidemiology
46
Competitive Landscape
49
Research-Based Industry
49
Table: Multinational Market Activity
50
Generic Drugmakers
51
Pharmaceutical Distribution and Retail Sector
52
Company Profile
53
Datlabs
53
Varichem Laboratories
55
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
59
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
59
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
60
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025)
61
Glossary
63
Methodology
65
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
65
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
65
Notes On Methodology
66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
67
Index Overview
68
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators
68
Indicator Weightings
69

The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.