BMI View: Zimbabwe is one of the top 20 fastest growing pharmaceutical markets in 2016; however growth will slow considerably in the coming years. Weak economic conditions and a drop in revenue from taxes will further impact the already severely underfunded public healthcare services. Furthermore, a high abundance of counterfeit drugs and increasing political tensions make Zimbabwe one of the least attractive markets in the region for multinational drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD380mn in 2015 to USD400mn in 2016; +4.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.360||0.380||0.400||0.410||0.430||0.450||0.470|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.46||2.61||2.68||2.66||2.61||2.51||2.38|
In BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q416, Zimbabwe scores a poor 25.0 out of 100, unchanged from last quarter. The country is ranked 30th out of the 32 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, just above Angola (24.9). Despite its rapidly growing population (Population Growth score of 4.5 out of 5), Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets regionally and globally, due to the elevated political, economic and social risks, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.
In August 2016, Zimbabwe set up a clinical trials unit at Chitungwiza Central Hospital, allowing local pharmaceutical companies to test the safety and effectiveness of generic drugs in the country instead of sending them to India and Germany.
In August 2016, Harare saw the opening of a new USD10mn private cancer hospital Oncocare, the second cancer hospital in Zimbabwe.
A study commissioned by the Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) and Union Zimbabwe assessing the knowledge, attitudes and practices towards tuberculosis (TB) of communities in Zimbabwe, revealed that 29% of respondents did not know how to prevent TB, while 81% indicated that they were not well informed about the disease.
The Zimbabwe Diabetic Association is calling on the government to provide free access to diabetic medications as the cost of managing the disease continues to escalate. According to the association's estimates, 10% of the population have diabetes but may be unaware as many remain undiagnosed due to lack of knowledge about the disease.
BMI Economic View
Exposure to adverse weather conditions, a collapse in mineral demand and a dim outlook for the consumer sector will keep a lid on economic growth in Zimbabwe in 2016, pushing it barely out of the recessionary territory it entered in 2015.
BMI Political View
Increasingly vocal opposition to President Robert Mugabe will add to pre-existing pressures surrounding the prospect of political succession in Zimbabwe. The likelihood of a chaotic transition of power will increase the risk of derailing the country's fragile economic recovery.
The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.