BMI View: Zimbabwe's health sector will deteriorate over the short term as a result of significant cuts to national budget allocations. Despite the distribution to healthcare growing over the last seven years, it remains far from meeting the global commitment agreed in Abuja in 2001 of 15% of the national budget. Government revenue earning capabilities have declined as Zimbabwe's main exports are suffering from lower commodity prices, as well as diminishing taxable income from stagnant economi c growth. This will negatively affect Zimbabwe's healthcare delivery over the short term. Over the long term, continued reliance on foreign aid will discourage investment from drugmakers.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD380mn in 2015 to USD399mn in 2016; +5.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter .
|f = BMI forecast. Source: WHO, National Sources, BMI|
|Pharmaceutical sales, USDbn||0.361||0.380||0.399||0.418||0.437||0.456||0.475|
|Pharmaceutical sales, % of GDP||2.60||2.79||2.89||2.93||2.89||2.79||2.64|
In BMI's Risk/Reward Index (RRI) for Q2 2016, Zimbabwe scores a poor 25.0 out of 100, down from last quarter's score of 25.3. The country is the least attractive out of the 31 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa region, just below Nigeria (26.0) and Angola (27.3). Zimbabwe will remain one of the least-attractive pharmaceutical and healthcare markets regionally and globally, due to the elevated political, economic and social risks, as well as the lack of finances for adequate healthcare provision and capacity utilisation.
In February 2016, the Zimbabwean health minister along with health ministers and representatives from 19 other African countries signed a declaration promoting the use of vaccines to protect people of all ages against vaccine-preventable diseases, and to close the immunisation gap by 2020.
Zimbabwe's 2016 budget will see just USD330mn allocated to the healthcare sector, corresponding to merely 9.7% of the USD4bn national budget and significantly smaller than the Abuja target of 15%.
In February 2016, the Zimbabwean government began its first ever HIV vaccine trial as part of a global effort to curb the spread of the disease in the country.
The Zimbabwean government has revived its interest in universal healthcare by announcing plans to implement a new national health insurance scheme for the majority of the population.
BMI Economic View
Economic growth in Zimbabwe will barely creep above zero in 2016 as the effects of drought; low commodity prices and weak levels of foreign investment keep the economy in the doldrums.
BMI Political View
Political instability in Zimbabwe will increase in the next two years, ahead of the 2018 general election. The ruling ZANU-PF party looks set to retain dominance, though succession questions will intensify as ailing president Robert Mugabe's rule approaches its end.
The Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features BMI Research's forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.
BMI's Zimbabwe Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Zimbabwe pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.
- Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Zimbabwe, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Zimbabwean pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Zimbabwe.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.
BMI Industry View
An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:
- Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
- Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
- Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
- OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
- Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.
BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape
A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.
Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.