Global Shakeup: The New Reality For World Trade

With economic nationalism on the rise globally, highlighted by the election of Donald Trump as US president, the future of the global trade regime is increasingly in doubt. BMI’s country risk and industry sector teams have assessed the potential risks and opportunities for corporates and investors in this new reality for world trade. In many ways, the risk of an imminent rise in protectionism is underappreciated. From China to Germany, and from telecoms to automobiles, no corner of the global economy will be immune to changes.

In this report, BMI assesses the likely changes to the global trade framework in the coming years, and the impact on trade patterns, export growth, and international supply chains.

This report uses BMI’s expertise to help answer key questions such as:

  • Which countries and industry sectors are most at risk from the upcoming changes in US trade policy?
  • How will key emerging market economies, including China and Mexico, deal with the new reality for global trade?
  • How will trade patterns shift?
  • What is the outlook for globalisation?
  • Despite the risks, what could go right for global trade?

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Global Shakeup: The New Reality For World Trade
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We expect US import barriers to rise on selected products, particularly manufactured goods, as the Trump administration seeks to renegotiate its existing trade relationships. In turn, the rest of the world will assess its options: some countries will retaliate in kind, hurting bilateral trade flows, while others will make new deals with the US. Many countries will prioritise new regional and bilateral trade deals to diversify their export markets and import sources. While this shift puts existing business models at risk, there are also major opportunities, particularly in the expansion of international services trade.